Week 2 Rankings With Uncertainty

John Bush
September 19, 2020

Week 2 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 2 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles. The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down into the specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, that is a strong method for investigations leading to research and hypothesis testing.

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 2 Rankings With Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level uncertainty. High uncertainty suggest deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups. Low uncertainty teams on the other hand can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

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The table below presents week 2’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or Avg in UNC vs Low UNC. This ratio give a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for consideration.

Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes. This week CAR KC ATL PIT BUF TEN and SEA are the teams having more Low UNC players while TB, DET, NE, NYJ, SF, NO and LV are those with High UNC! Move toward the top teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams.

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Bar Graph Plot of Week 2 Team Uncertainty Levels

Week 2 Rankings With Uncertainty. The simple Bar Graph encapsulates the Landscape of Team Uncertainty for week 2. The low UNC are low green stained and plotted to the left vs the high UNC are high red stained to the right. The level of each team can be used for further decisions. For example TB is the Highest UNC team for week 2 by a high amount. Caution as the range of player outcomes is High!

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Week 2 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 48 total game points)

The Table below lists the 4 games that Vegas suggest will be high scoring this week and thus you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common snice but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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BAL vs HOU

All the week 2 match-ups following have my DAPs landscape for deeper analysis. I will set the stage but I need you to do your own research using my metrics are prompts! I believe working for the information is better for your play than my laying it out on a silver platter!

These metrics contain:

The Two Teams
Their Opponents (Colorized by Overall Defense Tough to Easy (Red to Blue).
Home vs Away Games (Usually the Home Team gets 3 points for an Home game).
Rushing DAPs (Easy vs Tough Extremes Only)
QB Passing DAPs (Easy vs Tough Extremes Only)
Receivers DAPs (Easy vs Tough Extremes Only)
Specific DAPs for Offense/RB/QB/WR/TE/K/DEF (Easy Is Green Positive DAPS vs Tougher Red Negative DAPs)

Use the quick view to find the extremes then drill down into the specific positional DAPs. Adjust DFS and lineups accordingly.

Example DAP Analysis – BAL vs HOU.

When BAL has the ball their RBs have an easy game and their QB an easy Passing game. All positions at average or easy paths. Given the High Scoring Vegas Annotation move BAL players into your DFS etc.

When HOU has the ball, they face a tough game in all aspects. Use caution and play their players only if needed. Their WRs have the best at a -4 WR DAP.

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These figures that follow are WEEK 2 rankings FSPR (Fantasy Sport Professor’s Rankings).

They contain:

Team
Positions (Colorized and Sorted High to Low / Green to Red)
Player FSPR Rankings Numbers under their UNC level (High, Avg, and Low UNC).

Lamar the QB is the highest QB at 100 and low UNC

The RBs of Ingram and Dobbins are in the 70s (RB2/3 ish) with Average UNC

Andrews the TE was the high TE of the Week at Low UNC

The WRs are really on one in Brown at 86 ranked at WR2 level but average UNC. The others are a gamble but note the Vegas High Score and Nice WR DAPs. Maybe a tournament DFS play?