DraftKings Week 1 Milly Maker

I’m going to skip over the introductory anecdote and jump right into 12 game main slate over on DraftKings. For the Week 1 Mill Maker, nine teams currently have a projected team total over 24 and only 3 teams are touchdown favorites.

In Week 1 I want to overweight the field and take big, confident positions in players that are being overlooked or that the field is unsure about. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo | San Francisco 49ers | $5800

3% projected ownership

San Francisco’s 27 point team total against the Cardinals is second only to the Ravens in football’s return for Week 1. His $5800 price tag is a nice way to ease up some value across other positions while gaining leverage on the field. 

His 3% projected ownership does feel low especially considering his 2 meetings with the Cardinals last year that resulted in QB1 weeks (31.9 DKPt and 34.7 DKPt.)

With Deebo Samuel ruled out and rookie Aiyuk less than 100%, I’m bullish on the Kittle connection against a team that ranked dead last against QB and TE (19.9 DKPt/gm against opposing TE/ 25.2 DKPt/gm against QB). 

Tyrod Taylor | Los Angeles Chargers | $5600

5% projected ownership

Taylor has held his own atop the Chargers depth chart to open the season. Like Jimmy G, I’m liking the value at QB here with Taylor.

The Bengals ranked 7th worst against opposing teams’ QB just last season. Likewise the Bengals gave up 26.8 DKPt/gm to opposing RBs.

With Gordon now out of the picture in LA, I like the lightly-owned pairing of Ekeler with Taylor for a cheap contrarian stack with upside. 

Chalk QB: Jackson, Wilson

Also Consider: Brees, Ryan, Allen

Running Back

Todd Gurley | Atlanta Falcons | $6100

10% projected ownership

Gurley gets a much needed change of scenery for a fresh start on the east coast. As we saw with David Johnson, a new situation could be a boon to his fantasy outlook. The uncertainty surrounding Gurley’s health will surely anchor his ownership for Week 1. 

Though Seattle is more stout against the pass, they are susceptible to the rush giving up 25.9 DKPt to opposing running backs in 2019. For $6100, I like Gurley to find the end zone and catch a handful of passes in what should be a back and forth affair.

James White | New England Patriots  | $6000

5% projected ownership

White is not a fantastic value but he is relatively inexpensive nonetheless. With Sony Michel on the mend and Damien Harris placed on IR, expect the Patriots to lean more on White for Week 1.

The Dolphins gave up the 5th most DKPt to opposing running backs in 2019 and new acquisition, Newton should rely more on White as he becomes more acclimated to the Patriots system. 

Chalk RB: CMC (LOCK), Mixon, Jacobs, Ekeler, Kamara

Also Consider: Mack, Jones, Carson, Boston Scott with Miles Sanders out

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $7100

6% projected ownership

There’s so much to love about rostering Godwin this Sunday, I may just smash the lock button. Godwin was already intriguing with his cupcake matchup against slot corner P.J. Williams but even more so with sub 10% ownership.

We know that Brady is content to pepper his slot receiver with high percentage passes which is where Godwin spends most of his time. I’m taking the Saints in this one but believe that Godwin will have all the work he can handle given that teammate Mike Evans is likely out with a hamstring. 

Michael Thomas | New Orleans Saints | $9000

12% projected ownership

This seems like a no-brainer but I must include some context to encourage jamming in Thomas even at this elevated price tag. A 4X of $9000 would mean he needs to hit 36 DKPts to pay off his lofty salary.

Thomas averaged 36 DKPt against this same Bucs defense in his 2 meetings last season. The Bucs gave up the most DKPt to opposing WR last season with a whopping 45.9 avg/gm.

According to Football Outsiders, Thomas has the second best matchup on the slate while lining up across from Carlton Davis. Don’t overthink this one and overweight the field on this tepid ownership. 

John Brown | Buffalo Bills | $5600

1% projected ownership

In order to take a large field GPP like the Milly Maker, we want to take shots on low owned WR in good spots. Brown has a top 5 WR/CB matchup while expecting to see a lot of the Jet’s weakest cb, Pierre Desir.

Using Josh ADHD Premium Usage App, we find that Brown commanded a 35% marketshare of targets last year. I’m expecting Josh Allen to take the path of least resistance and look for Brown to build his confidence. In 2019, Brown paced the team in air yards with a 110 gm/avg while playing a team high 97% of snaps.

I know Diggs is entering the mix as well and that’s fine but I prefer Brown because of his projected 1% ownership along with his familiarity with the offense.

Chalk WR: Adams, McLaurin, Metcalf

Also Consider: Moore, Chark, Miller, Edelman, Manny Sanders, Bourne

Fade (at ownership): Hollywood Brown and DJax

Tight End

George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | $7200

13% projected ownership

To quote the great Al Smizzle… “PLAY YOUR TIGHT ENDS AGAINST THE CARDINALS.” Seriously though, the Cardinals are that funnel defense that gave up the most DKPt to the position last year with a 19.9 gm/avg.

The 49ers team total is second only to the Ravens with a healthy 27.5 implied total. With Samuel already ruled out and rookie Aiyuk dealing with a hammy, expect Jimmy G to lock onto his favorite target in the home opener. 

Hayden Hurst | Atlanta Falcons | $4300

10% projected ownership

With Austin Hooper leaving for a payday in Cleveland, the Falcons hope to fill that void at tight end with former first rounder, Hayden Hurst. On a slate seemingly devoid of value, Hurst offers that much needed savings. 

As reported by the teams official site, Hurst is expected to be an every down player for the team.  The matchup with the Seahawks is unthreatening having given up 15.7 DKPt/gm in 2019 (second only to the aforementioned Cardinals.) 

Chalk: Andrews, Ertz (he’s fine but i will be underweight), Cook

DST

1. BUF
2. NEP
3. BAL
4. NYJ – cheap contrarian D

If you like the logo and need some work done check out @willschmidt.desing on IG