PGA DFS Safeway Open Preview

The PGA DFS schedule has reopened! As a result, so has my obsession for guessing–ERRRRRR–selecting who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts into the foreseeable future.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do. Especially now.

First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always play a role.

PGA Event Information

Course: Silverado Resort & Spa (North), Par 72, 7,203 yards Napa, CA

Happy golf new year! Unlike almost all other major sports, the PGA Tour does not have a true off-season. After the Tour Championship each year, the FedEx points reset for the following event as the next season officially kicks off. For this 2020-2021 schedule, the Safeway Open will serve as the first opportunity for players to earn points toward the the next Tour Championship.

Since 2014, the Silverado Resort & Spa played host for the past six years. It features heavily wooded fairways along each side on a majority of the holes that will strongly penalize errant tee shots. The four par-5s are all reachable by most players making them a scoring necessity for contention. Past winners like Cameron Champ, Brendan Steele, and Kevin Tway are all bombers so distance can be a slight advantage as long as the accuracy trade off isn’t extreme.

Although the shallow field compares well to the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 3M Open, the course typically plays a tier tougher than those venues. On average over the past five years, the winning score came in at -16, and a cut line of -2.2 strokes.

Key Metrics and Odds

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and/or a precise approach performance. I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

  • BS–50%
  • SGA–35%
  • SGP–15%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been up to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

NameSalaryVegas OddsWABSSGASGP
Doc Redman920033/121.9411107
Matthew NeSmith6400170/133.6282377
Chesson Hadley700080/134.151130121
Harold Varner III910029/135.45928141
Brendan Steele1000020/137.55421673
Henrik Norlander850050/138.21739107
Emiliano Grillo970029/138.351013192
Jim Furyk770060/142.34014116
Lucas Glover800060/144.151732163
Cameron Davis890033/151.42468104
Nick Watney6800130/151.5603171
Kyle Stanley730065/1522645155
Russell Knox6700100/152.253826161
Martin Laird7000130/153472172
Cameron Tringale750060/153.8576887
Shane Lowry1020022/157.653742163
Adam Schenk690065/158.21511179
Pat Perez7000100/160.15626152
Luke List740055/160.953451174
Chris Baker6400150/162.753163168
Sepp Straka710080/165568353
Sergio Garcia990027/165.12373187
Josh Teater6300210/166.71193191
Aaron Wise680080/166.82089171
Cameron Percy6600150/166.858522111
Kevin Streelman900034/169.15762126
Will Gordon820050/169.815121133
Chez Reavie960031/172.457929152
Jhonattan Vegas700080/172.96132158
Tyler Duncan840055/173.657251132
Scott Stallings690080/175.88749101
Brice Garnett7100100/177.055112259
Kristoffer Ventura700080/178.65491534
Jason Dufner6900100/179.58724184
Bo Hoag6500170/182.43814975
Seamus Power6700100/182.82916082
James Hahn6000320/183.057577124
Michael Gellerman6200320/183.5819565
Keegan Bradley880040/184.38343185
D.J. Trahan6000420/186.726139167
Sam Ryder6700130/187.78975113
Chase Seiffert6600210/187.959210144
Doug Ghim6300170/188.530144154
Joel Dahmen950027/189.911344120
Mark Hubbard810042/190.851247029
Sam Burns870042/191.37713830
Talor Gooch730060/191.91118642
Branden Grace760060/192.312220162
Charley Hoffman750060/192.451205588
Robby Shelton710070/193.19080134
Joseph Bramlett6500150/194.774107135
Ryan Armour720080/194.970100166
Austin Cook6800130/1984618080
Stewart Cink6300210/1102.351356776
Harry Higgs720065/1102.76616189
Denny McCarthy790055/1102.71051431
Tim Wilkinson6100320/1103.5585120127
Troy Merritt710065/1103.859315423
Tom Hoge690080/1105.81583597
Scott Piercy720080/1106.1511579140
Michael Gligic6100320/1108.3593118137
Ted Potter, Jr.6200320/1109.310787169
Peter Uihlein6900100/1110.3512811736
Carlos Ortiz740050/1111.451418184
Ben Taylor6000500/1111.5110116106
Brian Stuard6600150/1111.751329681
Kyoung-Hoon Lee6900130/1111.9583146129
Bud Cauley860050/1112.351634796
Ryan Brehm6300270/1112.4563155178
Tyler McCumber6000320/1113.295108186
Mark Anderson6000320/1113.71487199
Patrick Rodgers760065/1114.310017911
Brandon Hagy6800130/1115.18118468
David Hearn6200320/1115.7510914277
C.T. Pan6500130/1120.314556188
Hank Lebioda6200270/1121.55108115182
Vincent Whaley6200270/1122.559819047
Kramer Hickok6400270/1123.6578166177
Si Woo Kim1080016/1125.8515684123
Xinjun Zhang7000100/1128.415411086
Scott Harrington6200270/1130.8510618685
Maverick McNealy730060/1133.51461699
Zack Sucher6100320/1133.75103172147
Anirban Lahiri6200320/1135.35100183142
Brandt Snedeker930037/1137.1515415637
Rafa Cabrera Bello720080/1137.2515313590
Kevin Chappell680080/1137.9515115164
Wes Roach6300270/1139.55102178175
Jordan Spieth980027/1139.718097105
Scott Brown6500210/1139.9129152148
Grayson Murray6500210/1140.45129136189
Aaron Baddeley6400210/1140.5517912451
Beau Hossler6600150/1140.914318824
J.J. Spaun6400270/1143.4146145131
Nate Lashley6400130/1147.616515963
Wyndham Clark680080/1148.1516218516
Robert Streb6200210/1148.35144141180
Rob Oppenheim6400270/1149.7160125173
Phil Mickelson1060020/1150.25173129124
Patton Kizzire6600130/1151.318116325
Brian Gay6100270/1153.118114872
Chris Stroud6100320/1155.4518514093
Dominic Bozzelli6000420/1155.8518717019
Rhein Gibson6200320/1156.217218927
Andrew Putnam6600150/1158.31891813
Roger Sloan6700100/1159.3167166118
Sebastian Cappelen6100420/1161.4516119194
Peter Malnati6700170/1162.5519217340
Kevin Tway6600150/1164.15170158159
Zac Blair6400270/1165.918317783
Matt Every6200320/1175.8177171183
Nelson Ledesma6000500/1177.3188187119
Bo Van Pelt6000420/1180.2169192190
Martin Trainer6000500/1182.45183193156

*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify and/or did not have odds posted as of 9/8/20

Course History (since 2014)

The table below is a quick way to search any player’s past performance in this event. The simplest way to use it is to search the player’s name. This will execute a quick filter of just that one player’s historical appearances at this event. Below the table, I’ll mention the most notable players just in terms past performance at this course.

YearPlayerFinish
2020Aaron BaddeleyT33
2019Aaron BaddeleyT4
2018Aaron BaddeleyCUT
2017Aaron BaddeleyT67
2016Aaron BaddeleyT55
2015Aaron BaddeleyT31
2018Aaron WiseCUT
2017Aaron WiseCUT
2020Abraham AncerCUT
2018Abraham AncerT37
2016Abraham AncerCUT
2020Adam Hadwin2
2019Adam HadwinCUT
2017Adam HadwinCUT
2016Adam HadwinT41
2015Adam HadwinT53
2020Adam LongT23
2019Adam LongT63
2020Adam SchenkCUT
2019Adam SchenkT14
2018Adam SchenkCUT
2020Adam ScottT17
2019Adam SvenssonT41
2020Akshay BhatiaCUT
2018Alex CejkaCUT
2015Alex CejkaCUT
2019Alex PrughT33
2019Anders AlbertsonCUT
2020Andres GonzalesCUT
2019Andres GonzalesCUT
2017Andres GonzalesT35
2016Andres GonzalesCUT
2015Andres GonzalesT26
2015Andres RomeroCUT
2020Andrew LandryT23
2019Andrew LandryT66
2018Andrew LandryT7
2018Andrew LoupeCUT
2016Andrew LoupeT10
2018Andrew PutnamT30
2015Andrew PutnamCUT
2015Andrew SvobodaCUT
2018Andrew YunCUT
2015Andy MillerCUT
2016Ángel CabreraT55
2020Anirban LahiriCUT
2019Anirban LahiriCUT
2018Anthony PaolucciCUT
2020Austin CookCUT
2020Beau HosslerCUT
2019Beau HosslerCUT
2018Beau Hossler74
2019Ben CraneT46
2018Ben CraneCUT
2016Ben CraneT32
2015Ben CraneW/D
2016Ben GeyerCUT
2020Ben MartinCUT
2018Ben MartinT17
2016Ben MartinCUT
2015Ben MartinCUT
2019Ben SilvermanT75
2018Ben SilvermanT43
2020Ben TaylorCUT
2019Bill HaasT10
2018Bill HaasT17
2017Bill HaasT20
2018Billy Hurley IIICUT
2015Billy Hurley IIICUT
2017Blayne BarberCUT
2016Blayne BarberCUT
2015Blayne BarberT39
2020Bo HoagT44
2020Bo Van PeltT62
2015Bo Van PeltT65
2018Bobby WyattCUT
2017Bobby WyattCUT
2017Boo WeekleyCUT
2016Boo Weekley71
2017Brad FritschCUT
2015Brad FritschCUT
2019Brady SchnellCUT
2020Brandon HagyCUT
2019Brandon HagyCUT
2017Brandon HagyT35
2019Brandon Harkins74
2018Brandon HarkinsT9
2020Brandt SnedekerT17
2019Brandt SnedekerT2
2016Brandt SnedekerT17
2015Brandt SnedekerT57
2020Brendan SteeleT60
2019Brendan SteeleT53
2018Brendan Steele1
2017Brendan Steele1
2016Brendan SteeleT17
2015Brendan SteeleT21
2018Brendon de JongeCUT
2017Brendon de JongeT26
2016Brendon de JongeCUT
2015Brendon de JongeT31
2020Brendon ToddCUT
2016Brendon ToddT26
2019Brett DrewittT25
2017Brett DrewittT35
2018Brett StegmaierT43
2017Brett StegmaierCUT
2016Brett StegmaierT74
2017Brian CampbellT50
2018Brian DavisT43
2015Brian DavisCUT
2020Brian GayT23
2018Brian GayCUT
2017Brian HarmanCUT
2016Brian HarmanCUT
2020Brian StuardT17
2019Brian StuardT53
2018Brian StuardT62
2017Brian StuardCUT
2015Brian StuardCUT
2020Brice GarnettT23
2018Brice GarnettT17
2015Brice GarnettT46
2020Bronson BurgoonCUT
2019Bronson BurgoonT53
2018Bronson BurgoonT17
2016Bronson BurgoonCUT
2016Brooks KoepkaT41
2015Brooks KoepkaT8
2017Bryce MolderCUT
2016Bryce MolderCUT
2015Bryce MolderT3
2020Bryson DeChambeauT13
2018Bryson DeChambeauT17
2017Bryson DeChambeauCUT
2020Bud CauleyT44
2019Bud CauleyT46
2018Bud CauleyT7
2017Bud CauleyT50
2020Byeong Hun AnCUT
2020Byron MethCUT
2015Byron SmithT19
2020Cameron Champ1
2019Cameron ChampT25
2018Cameron ChampCUT
2020Cameron DavisCUT
2019Cameron DavisT17
2020Cameron PercyT7
2015Cameron PercyT26
2017Cameron SmithT35
2016Cameron SmithCUT
2020Cameron TringaleT44
2019Cameron TringaleT46
2018Cameron TringaleT43
2017Cameron TringaleCUT
2016Cameron TringaleT64
2015Cameron TringaleT26
2015Cameron WilsonT31
2018Camilo Villegas73
2016Camilo VillegasCUT
2018Carl PetterssonCUT
2017Carl PetterssonCUT
2016Carl PetterssonT48
2015Carl PetterssonT57
2020Carlos OrtizT40
2019Carlos OrtizT53
2016Carlos OrtizT32
2015Carlos OrtizT57
2019Chad CampbellCUT
2018Chad Campbell68
2017Chad CampbellT57
2016Chad CampbellCUT
2015Chad CampbellT39
2019Chad CollinsT83
2017Chad CollinsCUT
2016Chad CollinsT64
2016Charl SchwartzelT6
2020Charles Howell IIIT4
2017Charles Howell IIICUT
2016Charles Howell IIIT17
2015Charles Howell IIIT71
2020Charley HoffmanCUT
2017Charley HoffmanCUT
2016Charlie BeljanT74
2015Charlie BeljanT31
2018Charlie WiCUT
2020Chase SeiffertCUT
2019Chase WrightT10
2020Cheng Tsung PanCUT
2017Cheng Tsung PanCUT
2020Chesson HadleyT23
2019Chesson HadleyCUT
2018Chesson HadleyT3
2016Chesson HadleyCUT
2015Chesson HadleyT57
2020Chez ReavieT33
2019Chez ReavieT33
2018Chez ReavieT13
2017Chez ReavieT22
2016Chez ReavieT17
2015Chez ReavieT53
2020Chris BakerCUT
2019Chris KirkCUT
2018Chris KirkT30
2017Chris KirkT8
2016Chris KirkT81
2020Chris StroudCUT
2019Chris StroudCUT
2018Chris StroudCUT
2016Chris StroudT10
2015Chris StroudCUT
2019Chris ThompsonCUT
2019Cody GribbleCUT
2018Cody GribbleT59
2017Cody GribbleT8
2020Collin MorikawaT10
2017Collin MorikawaCUT
2020Colt KnostCUT
2018Colt KnostCUT
2017Colt KnostCUT
2016Colt KnostT41
2015Colt KnostT26
2018Conrad ShindlerCUT
2020Corey ConnersT13
2019Corey ConnersCUT
2018Corey ConnersT30
2016Cory RenfrewCUT
2019Curtis LuckCUT
2018D.A. PointsCUT
2017D.A. PointsCUT
2015D.A. PointsCUT
2016D.H. LeeT55
2020Daniel BergerT23
2016Daniel BergerT17
2015Daniel BergerCUT
2018Daniel SummerhaysCUT
2017Daniel SummerhaysCUT
2016Daniel SummerhaysT32
2015Daniel SummerhaysT46
2020Danny LeeCUT
2019Danny LeeT10
2017Danny LeeT50
2015Danny LeeT46
2019Danny WillettCUT
2016David BradshawCUT
2015David CarrCUT
2020David HearnT52
2019David Hearn86
2018David HearnT54
2017David HearnCUT
2016David HearnCUT
2015David HearnT68
2017David LingmerthCUT
2015David LingmerthT17
2016David SolomonCUT
2017David TomsCUT
2016David TomsT32
2015Davis Love IIICUT
2016Dawie van der WaltCUT
2019Denny McCarthyCUT
2018Denny McCarthyCUT
2015Derek ErnstT57
2018Derek FathauerCUT
2017Derek FathauerT15
2016Derek FathauerCUT
2015Derek FathauerT12
2018Dicky PrideCUT
2016Dicky PrideCUT
2018Dino GiacomazziCUT
2020Doc RedmanCUT
2020Dominic BozzelliCUT
2019Dominic BozzelliCUT
2017Dominic BozzelliT35
2020Dylan FrittelliT7
2019Dylan FrittelliT25
2020Emiliano GrilloCUT
2019Emiliano GrilloT41
2018Emiliano GrilloT28
2017Emiliano GrilloT26
2016Emiliano Grillo1
2018Eric AxleyCUT
2015Eric AxleyCUT
2016Eric HallbergCUT
2016Erik ComptonT26
2015Erik ComptonT46
2018Ethan TracyCUT
2020Fabián GómezT56
2019Fabián GómezT63
2018Fabián GómezT43
2017Fabián GómezT26
2016Fabián GómezT17
2020Francesco MolinariT23
2020Fred CouplesCUT
2019Fred CouplesT41
2016Freddie JacobsonT32
2017Gavin Kyle GreenCUT
2017Geoff OgilvyCUT
2016Geoff OgilvyCUT
2020George McNeillCUT
2016George McNeillCUT
2015George McNeillCUT
2017Gonzalo Fernandez-CastañoCUT
2015Gonzalo Fernandez-CastañoCUT
2018Graham DeLaetT5
2017Graham DeLaetCUT
2016Graham DeLaetT32
2015Graham DeLaetT39
2020Grayson MurrayCUT
2019Grayson MurrayT41
2018Grayson MurrayT9
2017Grayson MurrayCUT
2018Greg ChalmersCUT
2017Greg ChalmersT62
2016Greg OwenT74
2015Greg OwenCUT
2017Gregor MainCUT
2015Gregor MainCUT
2017Gunner WiebeCUT
2020Hank LebiodaT44
2019Hank LebiodaCUT
2020Harold Varner IIIT17
2019Harold Varner IIIT14
2018Harold Varner IIIT59
2017Harold Varner IIIT15
2016Harold Varner IIIT48
2020Harris EnglishT33
2019Harris EnglishT66
2018Harris EnglishCUT
2017Harris EnglishT35
2015Harris EnglishCUT
2015Harrison Frazar64
2020Harry HiggsT23
2015Heath SlocumCUT
2020Henrik NorlanderCUT
2016Henrik NorlanderT64
2020Hideki MatsuyamaCUT
2016Hideki MatsuyamaT17
2015Hideki MatsuyamaT3
2016Hiroshi IwataCUT
2019Hudson SwaffordT69
2017Hudson SwaffordT62
2016Hudson SwaffordT17
2015Hudson SwaffordT8
2019Hunter MahanT17
2018Hunter MahanT13
2017Hunter MahanCUT
2016Hunter MahanT32
2015Hunter MahanT3
2020Isaiah SalindaT33
2019J.B. Holmes9
2019J.J. HenryCUT
2017J.J. HenryT67
2016J.J. HenryT61
2015J.J. HenryCUT
2020J.J. SpaunCUT
2019J.J. SpaunT41
2018J.J. SpaunCUT
2017J.J. SpaunT55
2019J.T. PostonT46
2017J.T. PostonT57
2019James HahnT78
2017James HahnCUT
2016James HahnT41
2015James HahnCUT
2020Jamie LovemarkCUT
2019Jamie LovemarkCUT
2018Jamie LovemarkT43
2017Jamie LovemarkT20
2016Jamie LovemarkT48
2018Jamie SadlowskiCUT
2016Jarrod LyleCUT
2015Jarrod LyleT31
2017Jason BohnCUT
2016Jason BohnT3
2015Jason BohnCUT
2020Jason DufnerCUT
2019Jason DufnerCUT
2018Jason GoreW/D
2017Jason GoreCUT
2016Jason Gore73
2015Jason GoreCUT
2018Jason KokrakT17
2017Jason KokrakCUT
2016Jason KokrakDQ
2015Jason KokrakT46
2018Jason SchmuhlCUT
2017Jason SchmuhlCUT
2019Jeff BrehautCUT
2016Jeff OvertonCUT
2015Jeff OvertonT31
2016Jerry KellyT41
2015Jerry KellyT39
2020Jhonattan VegasT56
2019Jhonattan VegasT53
2017Jhonattan VegasCUT
2016Jhonattan VegasT10
2015Jhonattan VegasCUT
2020Jim FurykT17
2019Jim HermanCUT
2016Jim Herman72
2015Jim HermanCUT
2019Jim KnousT10
2015Jim RennerCUT
2015Jimmy Walker63
2020Jinho ChungCUT
2019Joaquin NiemannT83
2020Joel DahmenCUT
2019Joel DahmenT46
2018Joel DahmenCUT
2019Joey GarberCUT
2019John ChinCUT
2020John DalyCUT
2018John Daly72
2020John HuhCUT
2019John HuhCUT
2018John HuhCUT
2017John HuhT35
2016John HuhCUT
2015John HuhCUT
2015John MerrickCUT
2020John OdaT40
2017John PetersonCUT
2016John PetersonCUT
2015John PetersonT39
2018John RollinsCUT
2015John RollinsCUT
2019John SendenT78
2017John SendenT35
2016John SendenCUT
2019Johnson WagnerT25
2018Johnson WagnerCUT
2017Johnson WagnerT3
2016Johnson WagnerT48
2019Jon CurranCUT
2018Jon CurranCUT
2017Jon CurranT26
2016Jon CurranCUT
2015Jon CurranT8
2017Jon RahmT15
2019Jonas BlixtT33
2018Jonas BlixtT54
2017Jonas BlixtCUT
2016Jonas BlixtT48
2015Jonas BlixtCUT
2019Jonathan ByrdT75
2018Jonathan RandolphCUT
2017Jonathan RandolphCUT
2015Jonathan RandolphCUT
2019José de Jesús RodríguezCUT
2017Joseph BramlettT35
2019Josh TeaterT78
2019Julián EtulainT14
2017Julián EtulainCUT
2016Justin HicksCUT
2015Justin HicksCUT
2016Justin LeonardT74
2015Justin LeonardCUT
2016Justin RoseT6
2020Justin ThomasT4
2017Justin ThomasT8
2016Justin ThomasT3
2015Justin ThomasCUT
2018K.J. ChoiCUT
2018Keegan BradleyCUT
2017Keegan BradleyT22
2018Keith MitchellCUT
2019Kelly KraftCUT
2018Kelly KraftT69
2017Kelly KraftCUT
2016Kelly KraftCUT
2018Ken DukeCUT
2017Ken DukeT50
2015Ken DukeCUT
2020Kevin ChappellT40
2016Kevin ChappellCUT
2015Kevin ChappellCUT
2018Kevin DoughertyCUT
2015Kevin KisnerT21
2020Kevin NaCUT
2018Kevin NaT37
2017Kevin Na7
2016Kevin Na2
2020Kevin StadlerCUT
2020Kevin StreelmanCUT
2019Kevin StreelmanT25
2018Kevin StreelmanT13
2017Kevin StreelmanCUT
2016Kevin StreelmanT41
2015Kevin StreelmanCUT
2020Kevin TwayCUT
2019Kevin Tway1
2018Kevin TwayT52
2017Kevin TwayT62
2019Kramer HickokCUT
2020Kristoffer VenturaT62
2018Kurt KitayamaCUT
2019Kyle JonesT75
2017Kyle ReifersT35
2016Kyle ReifersT6
2015Kyle ReifersT39
2020Kyle StanleyCUT
2017Kyle StanleyT22
2018Kyle ThompsonCUT
2020Kyoung-Hoon LeeCUT
2019Kyoung-Hoon LeeCUT
2020Lanto GriffinT17
2018Lanto GriffinCUT
2015Lee WestwoodT12
2020Lucas GloverCUT
2019Lucas GloverT17
2018Lucas GloverT30
2017Lucas GloverCUT
2016Lucas GloverT17
2015Lucas GloverCUT
2016Luke GuthrieT10
2015Luke GuthrieT68
2020Luke ListCUT
2019Luke ListT4
2018Luke ListT37
2017Luke ListT26
2020Mackenzie HughesCUT
2019Mackenzie HughesT33
2018Mackenzie HughesCUT
2017Mackenzie HughesT13
2020Marc Leishman3
2015Marc LeishmanT46
2020Mark AndersonCUT
2017Mark AndersonCUT
2019Mark AnguianoCUT
2020Mark HubbardT13
2017Mark HubbardCUT
2016Mark HubbardT30
2015Mark HubbardT53
2019Mark MulderCUT
2015Mark WilsonCUT
2018Martin FloresT65
2017Martin FloresCUT
2015Martin FloresCUT
2020Martin LairdCUT
2019Martin LairdT46
2018Martin LairdT17
2017Martin LairdT8
2016Martin LairdT64
2015Martin LairdT3
2019Martin PillerCUT
2018Martin PillerT69
2016Martin PillerT81
2020Martin TrainerCUT
2019Martin TrainerT60
2015Mathew GogginCUT
2018Matt AtkinsCUT
2020Matt EveryCUT
2018Matt EveryCUT
2017Matt EveryCUT
2016Matt EveryW/D
2019Matt JonesCUT
2018Matt JonesT43
2016Matt JonesCUT
2015Matt JonesCUT
2017Matt KucharCUT
2015Matt KucharT21
2020Matthew NeSmithCUT
2020Maverick McNealyT52
2019Maverick McNealyT63
2018Maverick McNealyT52
2020Max HomaT62
2019Max HomaT60
2017Max HomaCUT
2015Max HomaT39
2020Michael GellermanCUT
2020Michael GligicT49
2017Michael HebertCUT
2020Michael KimCUT
2019Michael Kim73
2018Michael KimCUT
2017Michael KimT3
2016Michael KimT61
2015Michael PutnamCUT
2020Michael ThompsonT23
2019Michael ThompsonT17
2017Michael ThompsonCUT
2016Michael ThompsonT74
2015Michael ThompsonCUT
2017Miguel Angel CarballoCUT
2016Miguel Angel CarballoT32
2015Mike WeirCUT
2020Morgan HoffmannCUT
2017Morgan HoffmannT50
2020Nate LashleyCUT
2019Nate LashleyT17
2018Nate LashleyCUT
2020Nelson LedesmaCUT
2018Nicholas LindheimCUT
2017Nicholas Lindheim70
2015Nicholas ThompsonCUT
2020Nick TaylorT10
2019Nick TaylorT53
2018Nick TaylorT9
2017Nick TaylorCUT
2016Nick TaylorCUT
2015Nick TaylorCUT
2020Nick WatneyT10
2019Nick WatneyCUT
2017Nick WatneyT35
2016Nick WatneyT64
2019Ollie SchniederjansCUT
2018Ollie SchniederjansT17
2017Ollie SchniederjansCUT
2016Ollie SchniederjansT48
2020Pat PerezCUT
2016Pat PerezCUT
2015Pat PerezCUT
2020Patrick CantlayT40
2019Patrick CantlayT17
2020Patrick RodgersT44
2019Patrick RodgersT25
2018Patrick RodgersT43
2017Patrick RodgersCUT
2016Patrick RodgersT6
2015Patrick RodgersCUT
2020Patton KizzireCUT
2018Patton KizzireCUT
2017Patton Kizzire2
2017Paul CaseyT3
2020Peter MalnatiCUT
2019Peter MalnatiT25
2018Peter MalnatiT30
2017Peter MalnatiT35
2016Peter MalnatiCUT
2019Peter UihleinCUT
2018Peter UihleinCUT
2020Phil MickelsonCUT
2019Phil MickelsonT17
2018Phil MickelsonT3
2017Phil MickelsonT8
2020Rafael CamposT33
2017Retief GoosenCUT
2015Retief GoosenT3
2020Rhein GibsonT33
2016Rhein GibsonCUT
2015Richard SterneCUT
2019Richy WerenskiT33
2018Richy WerenskiT37
2017Richy WerenskiT35
2018Rick LambT54
2017Rick LambCUT
2020Ricky BarnesT62
2019Ricky BarnesT69
2018Ricky BarnesCUT
2017Ricky BarnesT57
2016Ricky BarnesCUT
2015Ricky BarnesCUT
2020Rob OppenheimT52
2018Rob OppenheimCUT
2020Robby SheltonT52
2016Robert AllenbyCUT
2015Robert AllenbyT8
2019Robert GarrigusCUT
2018Robert GarrigusT65
2017Robert GarrigusT26
2015Robert GarrigusCUT
2020Robert StrebCUT
2019Robert StrebCUT
2017Robert StrebCUT
2016Robert StrebCUT
2015Robert StrebT31
2019Roberto CastroT53
2017Roberto CastroT35
2016Roberto CastroT69
2019Roberto DíazCUT
2018Roberto DíazW/D
2017Rod PamplingCUT
2020Roger SloanT13
2019Roger SloanT60
2016Rory McIlroyT26
2018Rory SabbatiniCUT
2016Rory SabbatiniCUT
2019Russell HenleyCUT
2017Russell HenleyCUT
2016Russell HenleyT41
2019Russell KnoxCUT
2016Russell KnoxCUT
2015Russell KnoxT68
2018Ryan ArmourCUT
2017Ryan ArmourCUT
2015Ryan ArmourCUT
2019Ryan BlaumT33
2018Ryan BlaumCUT
2017Ryan BlaumT26
2020Ryan BrehmCUT
2017Ryan Brehm69
2020Ryan MooreCUT
2019Ryan MooreT2
2018Ryan MooreT17
2016Ryan MooreT10
2016Ryan PalmerCUT
2016Ryo IshikawaCUT
2015Ryo IshikawaT19
2019Sam BurnsCUT
2020Sam RyderCUT
2019Sam RyderT4
2018Sam RyderCUT
2019Sam SaundersT78
2018Sam SaundersCUT
2016Sam SaundersCUT
2015Sam SaundersT73
2020Sangmoon BaeCUT
2019Sangmoon BaeCUT
2018Sangmoon BaeCUT
2015Sangmoon Bae1
2020Satoshi KodairaCUT
2020Scott BrownCUT
2019Scott BrownCUT
2018Scott BrownT62
2016Scott BrownCUT
2015Scott BrownT12
2020Scott HarringtonT23
2019Scott LangleyCUT
2016Scott LangleyT55
2015Scott LangleyT17
2020Scott Piercy67
2019Scott PiercyCUT
2018Scott PiercyT17
2017Scott PiercyT3
2015Scott PiercyCUT
2016Scott PinckneyT74
2015Scott PinckneyT31
2018Scott StallingsCUT
2017Scott StallingsCUT
2016Scott StallingsCUT
2015Scott StallingsT21
2015Scott VerplankCUT
2019Seamus PowerCUT
2018Seamus PowerCUT
2017Seamus PowerCUT
2019Sean O'HairCUT
2016Sean O'HairT26
2015Sean O'HairW/D
2020Sebastian CappelenCUT
2020Sebastián MuñozT33
2019Sebastián MuñozCUT
2020Sepp StrakaCUT
2019Sepp StrakaT46
2019Seth ReevesT69
2017Seung-Yul NohT62
2016Seung-Yul NohCUT
2016Shane BertschT74
2019Shawn StefaniCUT
2018Shawn StefaniT65
2016Shawn StefaniCUT
2015Shawn StefaniT53
2020Si Woo KimT49
2016Si Woo KimCUT
2018Smylie Kaufman75
2017Smylie KaufmanCUT
2016Smylie KaufmanT10
2017Spencer LevinCUT
2016Spencer LevinT48
2015Spencer LevinT21
2019Stephan JaegerCUT
2018Stephan JaegerT30
2018Steve AllanCUT
2016Steve MarinoCUT
2018Steve WheatcroftT59
2016Steve WheatcroftT55
2015Steve WheatcroftT71
2017Steven AlkerT26
2015Steven AlkerCUT
2017Steven BowditchCUT
2016Steven BowditchCUT
2015Steven Bowditch2
2017Stewart CinkCUT
2016Stuart ApplebyT69
2015Stuart ApplebyT65
2020Stuart SmithCUT
2020Sung KangCUT
2019Sung KangT83
2018Sung KangT62
2017Sung KangCUT
2020Sungjae ImT49
2019Sungjae ImT4
2015T.J. VogelCUT
2017Tag RidingsT35
2020Talor GoochT56
2018Talor GoochT54
2019Ted Potter, Jr.CUT
2018Ted Potter, Jr.T28
2017Ted PurdyCUT
2016Tim ClarkCUT
2015Tim ClarkT57
2015Tim WilkinsonT65
2015Tom GillisT26
2020Tom HogeCUT
2019Tom HogeT17
2018Tom HogeT37
2016Tom HogeCUT
2015Tom HogeCUT
2018Tom LoveladyT43
2018Tony Finau2
2017Tony FinauT26
2016Tony FinauT32
2015Tony FinauT12
2020Tony RomoCUT
2015Trevor ImmelmanT46
2019Trey MullinaxCUT
2018Trey MullinaxCUT
2017Trey MullinaxT22
2015Troy KellyCUT
2015Troy MattesonCUT
2020Troy MerrittCUT
2019Troy MerrittT4
2018Troy MerrittT69
2017Troy MerrittT15
2016Troy MerrittCUT
2015Troy MerrittCUT
2016Tyler AldridgeT55
2020Tyler DuncanT56
2019Tyler DuncanT69
2018Tyler DuncanT5
2020Tyler McCumber66
2019Tyler McCumberT25
2019Tyrone Van AswegenT66
2018Tyrone Van AswegenT9
2017Tyrone Van AswegenCUT
2016Tyrone Van AswegenT3
2015Tyrone Van AswegenT73
2020Vaughn TaylorT60
2019Vaughn TaylorT78
2018Vaughn TaylorCUT
2017Vaughn TaylorT15
2015Vijay SinghCUT
2020Vince CovelloCUT
2020Vincent WhaleyCUT
2018Webb SimpsonT17
2017Webb SimpsonCUT
2016Webb SimpsonCUT
2019Wes RoachCUT
2016Wes RoachCUT
2019Wesley BryanCUT
2017Wesley BryanT55
2019Whee KimT33
2018Whee KimT54
2017Whee KimT13
2016Whee KimCUT
2015Whee KimCUT
2017Will MacKenzieT60
2016Will MacKenzieT61
2016Will WilcoxT10
2016William McGirtT30
2015William McGirtW/D
2020Wyndham ClarkCUT
2019Wyndham ClarkT33
2017Xander SchauffeleT60
2020Xinjun ZhangT7
2018Xinjun ZhangT37
2020Zac BlairT4
2018Zac BlairT30
2017Zac BlairT62
2016Zac BlairCUT
2015Zac BlairT12
2018Zach JohnsonT13
2017Zack SucherCUT
2015Zack SucherCUT
2018Zecheng DouCUT
  • Two of Brendan Steele’s three career PGA Tour wins came here in back-back years in 2017-2018. He also has never missed a weekend in all six Silverado Appearances.
  • Brandt Snedeker is also a perfect 4/4 in keeping weekend hotel reservations in Napa. Three of those finishes were T-17 or higher, including a runner up in 2019.
  • He may not have a top-10 to boast of, but Chez Reavie has made the cut every year (six total) here since Silverado became the host course. The last five finishes were T-33 or higher.
  • Almost the same can be said for Harold Varner III. He’s gone 5/5 in his career here with no top-10s, but three of his last four appearances have been inside the top-20.
  • In the “random veteran with solid event track record” department, look no further than Bill Haas. His three career starts here have all been top-20s.

Contest Approach

In my opinion, anyone paying top dollar for Phil Mickelson or Si Woo Kim should be committed to an institution against their will. That said, if I am spending in that range Steele and Shane Lowry would be my preference.

Going all the way back to “last season”, I discussed the notion of bumping up the floors/ceilings for most players in the middling odds range for super soft fields like this. The idea is to target players who are trending in the right direction with recent form, on an upward career trajectory, and possess some pedigree that suggests their best days are in front of them. And, a weak field like this could be just the ticket to a break through top-10 finish.

My favorite two resumes for the job this week are Wesley Bryan and Kristoffer Ventura (shocking, I know). I remain bullish on my case for Ventura as a strong breakout candidate in his first full PGA Tour season. As long as his price sticks where it’s at, he’ll likely be a PGA DFS foundational piece for me in any event like this.

As for Bryan, he’s in the midst of a comeback from a shoulder injury that slightly derailed his 2018 and 2019 seasons. Before that, he was definitely among the mid-late 20 somethings making noise in pro golf.

A more detailed account of his recent career is laid out nicely here in this interview. My takeaway from reading that and observing his recent play since the restart after that interview? He’s proven he can win on any tour, is now healthy and playing really well. And, only $7,100!!! Yea. That’s exactly what I’m looking for in a tournament like this.

After starting with those two, you could get dirtier with a Haas or K.H. Lee (also great value since the restart) to really bump your remaining cap per player up. Or, perhaps live a bit more modestly with a Henrik Norlander play to continue your PGA DFS build. I leave it up to you!

Core Players

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

  1. Wesley Bryan
  2. Kristoffer Ventura
  3. Brendan Steele
  4. HVIII

Good luck in Napa! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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