PGA DFS 3M Open Preview

The PGA DFS schedule has reopened! As a result, so has my obsession for guessing–ERRRRRR–selecting who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts into the foreseeable future.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do. Especially now.

First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always play a role.

Event Information

Course: TPC Twin Cities, Par 71, 7,468 yards, Blaine, MN

The tour leaves Ohio for another Midwest stop in beautiful Blaine, Minnesota that will surely be a relief for anyone slaughtered by Muirfield Village last week. This event in terms of the field and course difficulty will be much more representative of the other one that it debuted with in 2019–the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Just four of the world’s top-25 ranked players are showing up this year compared to a whopping 22 for the Memorial last week. The combination of the soft field and a much more forgiving course layout will revert back to the high scoring events we have seen since the return of golf. In the inaugural event last season, the cut line of minus three, and Matthew Wolff’s winning score of 21 under par is a fair expectation of what it will take to contend this week.

Key Metrics and Odds

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and a precise approach performance.

Moving forward, I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

  • BS–50%
  • SGA–35%
  • SGP–15%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been up to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

NameSalaryVegas OddsWABSSGASGP
Harris English900035/121.65142930
Doc Redman870055/130.8814146
Paul Casey1010018/133.429195
Matthew NeSmith6900125/134.2242785
Lucas Glover940025/137.451526139
Chesson Hadley6900110/139.852120149
Emiliano Grillo7100110/143.4919215
Russell Henley920035/1453510160
Tony Finau1090014/150.2522896
Henrik Norlander860066/152.853160109
Russell Knox6700125/158.35132144
Kyle Stanley730090/160.13944168
Cameron Percy6500250/160.557316123
Adam Long700090/163.05784360
Johnson Wagner6600250/163.6449458
Bubba Watson990028/164.45616477
Dustin Johnson1150012/164.84467129
Nick Watney6400400/166.26745113
George McNeill6400350/167.55587582
Pat Perez720090/172.2886048
Aaron Wise7100100/1732294194
Cameron Tringale7200110/173.69722116
Luke List840040/175.055368165
Max Homa800060/175.25884994
Sepp Straka790080/176.155810667
Adam Schenk6900100/177.53213888
Sam Ryder730090/177.758056121
Ryan Moore810055/178.47265131
D.J. Trahan6100600/181.4529109192
Chase Seiffert7000110/181.81037234
Seamus Power6500300/183.354615150
Will Gordon770070/183.6536134125
Cameron Davis6500100/183.955390173
Richy Werenski7400100/184.758710237
Brice Garnett690080/185.76013361
Michael Gellerman6000600/186.75928378
Jhonattan Vegas790066/190.719172140
Ben Taylor6000750/191.459479112
Scott Stallings760090/191.7510859114
Tim Wilkinson6400200/192.5571100147
Joseph Bramlett6800100/192.97093169
Josh Teater6400250/194.618155209
Ryan Armour7600100/197.5562113180
Branden Grace7500-98.512734154
Chris Baker6400250/198.6549130191
Brendon Todd830055/199.110012145
Peter Uihlein6900125/199.151238748
Jason Kokrak720070/199.2556129174
Roberto Castro6300500/199.464115181
Kristoffer Ventura730090/199.9671884
Hudson Swafford6700100/199.951306386
Danny Lee6700175/1100.18488182
Matthew Wolff970028/1102.28613189
Tom Hoge7100100/1105.81722476
Jason Dufner6900125/1106.112046200
Brian Harman800055/1106.751308287
David Hearn6100400/1106.8593121120
Fabián Gómez6300200/1107.28813997
Carlos Ortiz770066/1107.251426883
Charley Hoffman740070/1108.351426695
Kyoung-Hoon Lee6800150/1108.491118144
Austin Cook6800175/1108.755520075
Alex Cejka6300600/1111.2512155210
Bo Hoag6700200/1112.1569176107
Erik Van Rooyen880045/1112.215720178
Scott Piercy7000110/1112.9108101157
Harry Higgs6600175/111374167117
Talor Gooch710090/1115.21459856
Tyler McCumber6100600/1115.9510596199
Shawn Stefani6300250/111656173183
Robby Shelton6200400/1117.7113114142
Michael Thompson7000110/1119.2511016055
Zack Sucher6200500/1119.480154170
Troy Merritt750070/1119.710417836
Patrick Rodgers820066/1120.311217911
Charles Howell III740080/1120.69516993
Stewart Cink6600125/1121.91677874
Ryan Brehm6100600/1122.462175201
Sam Burns850050/1122.6512615829
Alex Noren7500100/1123.8133117109
Mark Anderson6300200/1125.61658589
Xinjun Zhang7000125/1126.2515389124
Rafa Cabrera Bello770090/1126.413714157
Ted Potter, Jr.6200600/1127.413897163
Brandon Hagy6700175/1128.459719871
Doug Ghim6100400/112976185175
Bronson Burgoon6600175/1132.3517910443
Scott Harrington6800200/1134.211119179
Ben Martin7100100/1134.6516410899
Vaughn Taylor6800100/1136.0516813239
Bill Haas6400400/1139.15115142213
Denny McCarthy7100110/1139.81401991
Charl Schwartzel6700150/1140.92137652
Vincent Whaley6200400/1143.8115196118
Brooks Koepka1120014/1144.2155146104
Grayson Murray6500300/1145.2125148206
Keith Mitchell6900110/1146.6515418728
Jonathan Byrd6200500/1146.85165105184
Chris Kirk780090/1147.65124168179
Michael Gligic6000600/1148148145155
Wes Roach6800150/1150.399201203
Robert Streb6400300/1153.65151144185
Beau Hossler6600300/1154.915720238
Kramer Hickok6300500/1155.4118194190
Dominic Bozzelli60001000/1155.419814733
Ricky Barnes6000600/1155.7521512530
Jamie Lovemark6200400/1156205110100
Scott Brown6300275/1156.95139186149
Chris Stroud6500250/1157.2197121109
Luke Donald6600300/1159.4521411972
J.J. Henry6000-159.75136203138
Dylan Frittelli760066/1160.05191127134
Andrew Putnam6400275/1160.952021703
Arjun Atwal6000600/1161.2135176214
J.J. Spaun6500300/1161.6171157141
Rhein Gibson6400400/1162.0518219714
Brian Gay6700200/1164.1520314970
Wyndham Clark7300100/1165.5518020623
Rob Oppenheim6100300/1168.2184135193
Aaron Baddeley6300250/1168.85200153102
Si Woo Kim780090/1171.15199149130
Hank Lebioda6200500/1172.9163181187
Sebastian Cappelen6200500/1175.217421098
Patton Kizzire6800225/1177.0520719340
Matt Every6100600/1177.6188151205
Peter Malnati6200400/1178.821219042
Kevin Tway6200400/1183.7189182170
Roger Sloan6500175/1184.7192184162
John Senden60001000/1190.75200207122
Nelson Ledesma6100600/1194.3208213105
Bo Van Pelt60001250/1201.95192214207
Martin Trainer60001250/1204.8206215177
Tommy Fleetwood1050017/1----
Tom Lewis7200100/1----
Bernd Wiesberger720090/1----
Matthias Schwab7000125/1----
Seung-Yul Noh6600175/1----
Sahith Theegala6500300/1----
Sang-Moon Bae6300-----
Derek Ernst6300-----
David Lingmerth6200-----
Tommy Gainey6100600/1----
K.J. Choi61001000/1----
Chase Koepka6100750/1----
Ryan Blaum6100600/1----
Chad Campbell6100600/1----
Chris Couch6000-----
John Merrick60001000/1----
Greg Chalmers6000600/1----
Tom Lehman60001000/1----
Michael Kim6000750/1----
Angus Flanagan6000750/1----
Tim Herron60001000/1----
Peter Kuest6000750/1----

*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify and/or did not have odds posted as of 7/21/20

Course History

The table below is a quick way to search any player’s past performance in this event. The simplest way to use it is to search the player’s name. This will execute a quick filter of just that one player’s historical appearances at this event. Being just the second year at this venue, there isn’t much to consider here.

YearPlayerFinishScore
2019Matthew Wolff1-21
2019Bryson DeChambeauT2-20
2019Collin MorikawaT2-20
2019Adam Hadwin4-18
2019Wyndham ClarkT5-17
2019Carlos OrtizT5-17
2019Sam BurnsT7-16
2019Lucas GloverT7-16
2019Joey GarberT7-16
2019Brian HarmanT7-16
2019Hideki MatsuyamaT7-16
2019Troy MerrittT7-16
2019Fabián GómezT13-15
2019Viktor HovlandT13-15
2019Daniel BergerT15-14
2019Scott BrownT15-14
2019Charlie DanielsonT15-14
2019Sungjae ImT15-14
2019Scott PiercyT15-14
2019Roger SloanT15-14
2019Shawn StefaniT15-14
2019Adam SvenssonT15-14
2019Brice GarnettT23-13
2019Tom HogeT23-13
2019Denny McCarthyT23-13
2019Sam SaundersT23-13
2019Chase WrightT23-13
2019Arjun AtwalT23-13
2019Tony FinauT23-13
2019Charles Howell IIIT23-13
2019Joaquin NiemannT23-13
2019Patrick ReedT23-13
2019Johnson WagnerT23-13
2019Bronson BurgoonT34-12
2019Bud CauleyT34-12
2019Beau HosslerT34-12
2019Patton KizzireT34-12
2019Hank LebiodaT34-12
2019Sam RyderT34-12
2019Robert StrebT34-12
2019Kevin StreelmanT34-12
2019Ryan ArmourT42-11
2019Kramer HickokT42-11
2019Martin LairdT42-11
2019Cameron TringaleT42-11
2019Keegan BradleyT46-10
2019Roberto CastroT46-10
2019Corey ConnersT46-10
2019Peter MalnatiT46-10
2019Nick TaylorT46-10
2019Richy WerenskiT46-10
2019Dylan FrittelliT46-10
2019Brendan SteeleT53-9
2019Tyrone Van AswegenT53-9
2019Pat PerezT53-9
2019Brian GayT56-8
2019Rod PamplingT56-8
2019David HearnT58-7
2019Kyle JonesT58-7
2019Satoshi KodairaT58-7
2019Tom LehmanT58-7
2019Curtis LuckT58-7
2019Zack SucherT58-7
2019Justin SuhT58-7
2019Brooks Koepka65-6
2019Jason DayT66-5
2019Jason DufnerT66-5
2019Mackenzie HughesT66-5
2019Stephan JaegerT66-5
2019Keith MitchellT66-5
2019J.J. SpaunT66-5
2019Sebastián Muñoz72-4
2019Talor Gooch73-3
2019Ryan BlaumT74MCD
2019Robert GarrigusT74MCD
2019Bill HaasT74MCD
2019Scott StallingsT74MCD
2019Jimmy WalkerT74MCD
2019Roberto DíazT79MCD
2019Matt EveryT79MCD
2019Max HomaT79MCD
2019Anders Albertson82MCD
2019Tyler Duncan83MCD
2019Anirban Lahiri84MCD
2019Michael Thompson85MCD
2019Sangmoon BaeCUT-
2019Alex CejkaCUT-
2019Cameron DavisCUT-
2019Russell HenleyCUT-
2019Morgan HoffmannCUT-
2019Kelly KraftCUT-
2019Andrew LandryCUT-
2019David LingmerthCUT-
2019Hunter MahanCUT-
2019Ollie SchniederjansCUT-
2019Peter UihleinCUT-
2019Austin CookCUT-
2019Harris EnglishCUT-
2019Danny LeeCUT-
2019Trey MullinaxCUT-
2019Alvaro OrtizCUT-
2019Seth ReevesCUT-
2019Sepp StrakaCUT-
2019Josh TeaterCUT-
2019Chris ThompsonCUT-
2019Mark BaldwinCUT-
2019Kris BlanksCUT-
2019Charley HoffmanCUT-
2019Matt JonesCUT-
2019Si Woo KimCUT-
2019Nate LashleyCUT-
2019Luke ListCUT-
2019Nyasha MauchazaCUT-
2019Wes RoachCUT-
2019Brian DwyerCUT-
2019J.J. HenryCUT-
2019Scott LangleyCUT-
2019Adam LongCUT-
2019Alex PrughCUT-
2019Adam SchenkCUT-
2019Dominic BozzelliCUT-
2019Chad CampbellCUT-
2019Cody GribbleCUT-
2019Brandon HarkinsCUT-
2019Freddie JacobsonCUT-
2019Michael KimCUT-
2019Ryan MooreCUT-
2019Brady SchnellCUT-
2019Chris StroudCUT-
2019Martin TrainerCUT-
2019Chad CollinsCUT-
2019Colt KnostCUT-
2019Martin PillerCUT-
2019Jonas BlixtCUT-
2019Sung KangCUT-
2019Kyoung-Hoon LeeCUT-
2019Tom LoveladyCUT-
2019Doc RedmanCUT-
2019Rory SabbatiniCUT-
2019Tim HerronCUT-
2019Smylie KaufmanCUT-
2019Phil MickelsonCUT-
2019Ben CraneCUT-
2019Whee KimCUT-
2019Ted Potter, Jr.CUT-
2019Nick WatneyCUT-
2019Cameron ChampCUT-
2019Ben SilvermanCUT-
2019Julián EtulainCUT-
2019Chesson HadleyCUT-
2019John ChinCUT-
2019Will ClaxtonCUT-
2019Craig BrischkeCUT-
2019Kevin NaW/D-
2019Nicholas LindheimW/D-

Contest Approach

Copy and paste the form/ball striking approach I had from the PGA DFS Rocket Mortgage Classic (RMC) preview a few weeks ago. With possibly an even softer field than we saw in Detroit and very little course history to draw on, I want the sharpest tee-to-green game that is available. Players must provide themselves with the most convertible scoring chances as possible here, in what will likely be an Oregon Trail like grueling pace.

In terms of ball striking, Sam Ryder ranked a solid T-55 in 2019 as compared to his current 80th ranking. His weekend play at the Workday Charity Open two weeks ago suggests some potential return to form. Over the final two rounds, Ryder ranked 4th and 1st in strokes gained: tee-to-green (SGT2G), and strokes gained: approach-the-green (SGA), respectively. He also felt good enough to tweet about it which always translates to positive PGA DFS results.

A missed cut from last week that I am also considering is Branden Grace. The Muirfield Village putting greens ate him up where he lost a substantial 4.2 strokes (12th worst) on the field over the first two days. In contrast, he ranked 6th in SGA before missing the weekend by two shots. If he can continue his stellar iron play (34th SGA season rank) at a course like this, he won’t have to deal with trampoline glass that Jack put out there in Dublin.

Young and Old

Another pony I’ll be backing this week is Kristoffer Ventura. The 25 year-old Norwegian snuck in a T-21 at the RMC. He earned his tour card by finishing ranked 4th in the final Korn Ferry Tour last season. What is wayyyy more impressive is the context that he achieved that ranking.

In his first seven starts (of just 11 total) in 2019, he won twice, including the Utah Championship presented by Zions Bank, which was just his sixth start of his pro career. Similar to Oklahoma St. college teammates Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland, Ventura appears to acclimate quickly to his competitive surroundings. Additionally, his 4.18 (22nd ranked) birdies per round on the PGA Tour this season bumps his PGA DFS upside a bit here, where 5-6 of them will be needed everyday to keep keep up.

From the deeper cut seats, I discussed the merits of Tom Lehman here last season. This event plays as a big home game for the five-time PGA Tour winner. The Minnesota native played this course when it was a regular event on the Champions Tour eight times, with six finishes inside the top-30. Last year in the 3MO, that familiarity translated nicely as he was just six shots behind the leaders heading into the final round, before firing a 73 in route to a T-58 finish.

Tommy be sliding into those LUs this week… (Source: Matthew Lewis/Getty Images Europe)

3M Open Podcast

For a more thorough breakdown of every price range on DK, listen to my podcast below as Kyle Robert joins me again to play the weekly PGA DFS price range game. I think you will enjoy it. The podcast is also available on every major platform.

Core Players

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

  1. Tommy Fleetwood
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Kristoffer Ventura

Good luck in Minnesota! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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