PGA DFS 3M Open Preview

The PGA DFS schedule has reopened! As a result, so has my obsession for guessing–ERRRRRR–selecting who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts into the foreseeable future.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do. Especially now.

First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always play a role.

Event Information

Course: TPC Twin Cities, Par 71, 7,468 yards, Blaine, MN

The tour leaves Ohio for another Midwest stop in beautiful Blaine, Minnesota that will surely be a relief for anyone slaughtered by Muirfield Village last week. This event in terms of the field and course difficulty will be much more representative of the other one that it debuted with in 2019–the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Just four of the world’s top-25 ranked players are showing up this year compared to a whopping 22 for the Memorial last week. The combination of the soft field and a much more forgiving course layout will revert back to the high scoring events we have seen since the return of golf. In the inaugural event last season, the cut line of minus three, and Matthew Wolff’s winning score of 21 under par is a fair expectation of what it will take to contend this week.

Key Metrics and Odds

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and a precise approach performance.

Moving forward, I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

• BS–50%
• SGA–35%
• SGP–15%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been up to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

Name	Salary	Vegas Odds	WA	BS	SGA	SGP
Harris English	9000	35/1	21.65	14	29	30
Doc Redman	8700	55/1	30.8	8	14	146
Paul Casey	10100	18/1	33.4	2	9	195
Matthew NeSmith	6900	125/1	34.2	24	27	85
Lucas Glover	9400	25/1	37.45	15	26	139
Chesson Hadley	6900	110/1	39.85	21	20	149
Emiliano Grillo	7100	110/1	43.4	9	19	215
Russell Henley	9200	35/1	45	35	10	160
Tony Finau	10900	14/1	50.2	52	28	96
Henrik Norlander	8600	66/1	52.85	31	60	109
Russell Knox	6700	125/1	58.3	51	32	144
Kyle Stanley	7300	90/1	60.1	39	44	168
Cameron Percy	6500	250/1	60.55	73	16	123
Adam Long	7000	90/1	63.05	78	43	60
Johnson Wagner	6600	250/1	63.6	44	94	58
Bubba Watson	9900	28/1	64.45	61	64	77
Dustin Johnson	11500	12/1	64.8	44	67	129
Nick Watney	6400	400/1	66.2	67	45	113
George McNeill	6400	350/1	67.55	58	75	82
Pat Perez	7200	90/1	72.2	88	60	48
Aaron Wise	7100	100/1	73	22	94	194
Cameron Tringale	7200	110/1	73.6	97	22	116
Luke List	8400	40/1	75.05	53	68	165
Max Homa	8000	60/1	75.25	88	49	94
Sepp Straka	7900	80/1	76.15	58	106	67
Adam Schenk	6900	100/1	77.5	32	138	88
Sam Ryder	7300	90/1	77.75	80	56	121
Ryan Moore	8100	55/1	78.4	72	65	131
D.J. Trahan	6100	600/1	81.45	29	109	192
Chase Seiffert	7000	110/1	81.8	103	72	34
Seamus Power	6500	300/1	83.35	46	151	50
Will Gordon	7700	70/1	83.65	36	134	125
Cameron Davis	6500	100/1	83.95	53	90	173
Richy Werenski	7400	100/1	84.75	87	102	37
Brice Garnett	6900	80/1	85.7	60	133	61
Michael Gellerman	6000	600/1	86.75	92	83	78
Jhonattan Vegas	7900	66/1	90.7	19	172	140
Ben Taylor	6000	750/1	91.45	94	79	112
Scott Stallings	7600	90/1	91.75	108	59	114
Tim Wilkinson	6400	200/1	92.55	71	100	147
Joseph Bramlett	6800	100/1	92.9	70	93	169
Josh Teater	6400	250/1	94.6	18	155	209
Ryan Armour	7600	100/1	97.55	62	113	180
Branden Grace	7500	-	98.5	127	34	154
Chris Baker	6400	250/1	98.65	49	130	191
Brendon Todd	8300	55/1	99.1	100	121	45
Peter Uihlein	6900	125/1	99.15	123	87	48
Jason Kokrak	7200	70/1	99.25	56	129	174
Roberto Castro	6300	500/1	99.4	64	115	181
Kristoffer Ventura	7300	90/1	99.9	67	188	4
Hudson Swafford	6700	100/1	99.95	130	63	86
Danny Lee	6700	175/1	100.1	84	88	182
Matthew Wolff	9700	28/1	102.2	86	131	89
Tom Hoge	7100	100/1	105.8	172	24	76
Jason Dufner	6900	125/1	106.1	120	46	200
Brian Harman	8000	55/1	106.75	130	82	87
David Hearn	6100	400/1	106.85	93	121	120
Fabián Gómez	6300	200/1	107.2	88	139	97
Carlos Ortiz	7700	66/1	107.25	142	68	83
Charley Hoffman	7400	70/1	108.35	142	66	95
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6800	150/1	108.4	91	118	144
Austin Cook	6800	175/1	108.75	55	200	75
Alex Cejka	6300	600/1	111.25	121	55	210
Bo Hoag	6700	200/1	112.15	69	176	107
Erik Van Rooyen	8800	45/1	112.2	157	20	178
Scott Piercy	7000	110/1	112.9	108	101	157
Harry Higgs	6600	175/1	113	74	167	117
Talor Gooch	7100	90/1	115.2	145	98	56
Tyler McCumber	6100	600/1	115.95	105	96	199
Shawn Stefani	6300	250/1	116	56	173	183
Robby Shelton	6200	400/1	117.7	113	114	142
Michael Thompson	7000	110/1	119.25	110	160	55
Zack Sucher	6200	500/1	119.4	80	154	170
Troy Merritt	7500	70/1	119.7	104	178	36
Patrick Rodgers	8200	66/1	120.3	112	179	11
Charles Howell III	7400	80/1	120.6	95	169	93
Stewart Cink	6600	125/1	121.9	167	78	74
Ryan Brehm	6100	600/1	122.4	62	175	201
Sam Burns	8500	50/1	122.65	126	158	29
Alex Noren	7500	100/1	123.8	133	117	109
Mark Anderson	6300	200/1	125.6	165	85	89
Xinjun Zhang	7000	125/1	126.25	153	89	124
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7700	90/1	126.4	137	141	57
Ted Potter, Jr.	6200	600/1	127.4	138	97	163
Brandon Hagy	6700	175/1	128.45	97	198	71
Doug Ghim	6100	400/1	129	76	185	175
Bronson Burgoon	6600	175/1	132.35	179	104	43
Scott Harrington	6800	200/1	134.2	111	191	79
Ben Martin	7100	100/1	134.65	164	108	99
Vaughn Taylor	6800	100/1	136.05	168	132	39
Bill Haas	6400	400/1	139.15	115	142	213
Denny McCarthy	7100	110/1	139.8	140	199	1
Charl Schwartzel	6700	150/1	140.9	213	76	52
Vincent Whaley	6200	400/1	143.8	115	196	118
Brooks Koepka	11200	14/1	144.2	155	146	104
Grayson Murray	6500	300/1	145.2	125	148	206
Keith Mitchell	6900	110/1	146.65	154	187	28
Jonathan Byrd	6200	500/1	146.85	165	105	184
Chris Kirk	7800	90/1	147.65	124	168	179
Michael Gligic	6000	600/1	148	148	145	155
Wes Roach	6800	150/1	150.3	99	201	203
Robert Streb	6400	300/1	153.65	151	144	185
Beau Hossler	6600	300/1	154.9	157	202	38
Kramer Hickok	6300	500/1	155.4	118	194	190
Dominic Bozzelli	6000	1000/1	155.4	198	147	33
Ricky Barnes	6000	600/1	155.75	215	125	30
Jamie Lovemark	6200	400/1	156	205	110	100
Scott Brown	6300	275/1	156.95	139	186	149
Chris Stroud	6500	250/1	157.2	197	121	109
Luke Donald	6600	300/1	159.45	214	119	72
J.J. Henry	6000	-	159.75	136	203	138
Dylan Frittelli	7600	66/1	160.05	191	127	134
Andrew Putnam	6400	275/1	160.95	202	170	3
Arjun Atwal	6000	600/1	161.2	135	176	214
J.J. Spaun	6500	300/1	161.6	171	157	141
Rhein Gibson	6400	400/1	162.05	182	197	14
Brian Gay	6700	200/1	164.15	203	149	70
Wyndham Clark	7300	100/1	165.55	180	206	23
Rob Oppenheim	6100	300/1	168.2	184	135	193
Aaron Baddeley	6300	250/1	168.85	200	153	102
Si Woo Kim	7800	90/1	171.15	199	149	130
Hank Lebioda	6200	500/1	172.9	163	181	187
Sebastian Cappelen	6200	500/1	175.2	174	210	98
Patton Kizzire	6800	225/1	177.05	207	193	40
Matt Every	6100	600/1	177.6	188	151	205
Peter Malnati	6200	400/1	178.8	212	190	42
Kevin Tway	6200	400/1	183.7	189	182	170
Roger Sloan	6500	175/1	184.7	192	184	162
John Senden	6000	1000/1	190.75	200	207	122
Nelson Ledesma	6100	600/1	194.3	208	213	105
Bo Van Pelt	6000	1250/1	201.95	192	214	207
Martin Trainer	6000	1250/1	204.8	206	215	177
Tommy Fleetwood	10500	17/1	-	-	-	-
Tom Lewis	7200	100/1	-	-	-	-
Bernd Wiesberger	7200	90/1	-	-	-	-
Matthias Schwab	7000	125/1	-	-	-	-
Seung-Yul Noh	6600	175/1	-	-	-	-
Sahith Theegala	6500	300/1	-	-	-	-
Sang-Moon Bae	6300	-	-	-	-	-
Derek Ernst	6300	-	-	-	-	-
David Lingmerth	6200	-	-	-	-	-
Tommy Gainey	6100	600/1	-	-	-	-
K.J. Choi	6100	1000/1	-	-	-	-
Chase Koepka	6100	750/1	-	-	-	-
Ryan Blaum	6100	600/1	-	-	-	-
Chad Campbell	6100	600/1	-	-	-	-
Chris Couch	6000	-	-	-	-	-
John Merrick	6000	1000/1	-	-	-	-
Greg Chalmers	6000	600/1	-	-	-	-
Tom Lehman	6000	1000/1	-	-	-	-
Michael Kim	6000	750/1	-	-	-	-
Angus Flanagan	6000	750/1	-	-	-	-
Tim Herron	6000	1000/1	-	-	-	-
Peter Kuest	6000	750/1	-	-	-	-

*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify and/or did not have odds posted as of 7/21/20

Course History

The table below is a quick way to search any player’s past performance in this event. The simplest way to use it is to search the player’s name. This will execute a quick filter of just that one player’s historical appearances at this event. Being just the second year at this venue, there isn’t much to consider here.

Year	Player	Finish	Score
2019	Matthew Wolff	1	-21
2019	Bryson DeChambeau	T2	-20
2019	Collin Morikawa	T2	-20
2019	Adam Hadwin	4	-18
2019	Wyndham Clark	T5	-17
2019	Carlos Ortiz	T5	-17
2019	Sam Burns	T7	-16
2019	Lucas Glover	T7	-16
2019	Joey Garber	T7	-16
2019	Brian Harman	T7	-16
2019	Hideki Matsuyama	T7	-16
2019	Troy Merritt	T7	-16
2019	Fabián Gómez	T13	-15
2019	Viktor Hovland	T13	-15
2019	Daniel Berger	T15	-14
2019	Scott Brown	T15	-14
2019	Charlie Danielson	T15	-14
2019	Sungjae Im	T15	-14
2019	Scott Piercy	T15	-14
2019	Roger Sloan	T15	-14
2019	Shawn Stefani	T15	-14
2019	Adam Svensson	T15	-14
2019	Brice Garnett	T23	-13
2019	Tom Hoge	T23	-13
2019	Denny McCarthy	T23	-13
2019	Sam Saunders	T23	-13
2019	Chase Wright	T23	-13
2019	Arjun Atwal	T23	-13
2019	Tony Finau	T23	-13
2019	Charles Howell III	T23	-13
2019	Joaquin Niemann	T23	-13
2019	Patrick Reed	T23	-13
2019	Johnson Wagner	T23	-13
2019	Bronson Burgoon	T34	-12
2019	Bud Cauley	T34	-12
2019	Beau Hossler	T34	-12
2019	Patton Kizzire	T34	-12
2019	Hank Lebioda	T34	-12
2019	Sam Ryder	T34	-12
2019	Robert Streb	T34	-12
2019	Kevin Streelman	T34	-12
2019	Ryan Armour	T42	-11
2019	Kramer Hickok	T42	-11
2019	Martin Laird	T42	-11
2019	Cameron Tringale	T42	-11
2019	Keegan Bradley	T46	-10
2019	Roberto Castro	T46	-10
2019	Corey Conners	T46	-10
2019	Peter Malnati	T46	-10
2019	Nick Taylor	T46	-10
2019	Richy Werenski	T46	-10
2019	Dylan Frittelli	T46	-10
2019	Brendan Steele	T53	-9
2019	Tyrone Van Aswegen	T53	-9
2019	Pat Perez	T53	-9
2019	Brian Gay	T56	-8
2019	Rod Pampling	T56	-8
2019	David Hearn	T58	-7
2019	Kyle Jones	T58	-7
2019	Satoshi Kodaira	T58	-7
2019	Tom Lehman	T58	-7
2019	Curtis Luck	T58	-7
2019	Zack Sucher	T58	-7
2019	Justin Suh	T58	-7
2019	Brooks Koepka	65	-6
2019	Jason Day	T66	-5
2019	Jason Dufner	T66	-5
2019	Mackenzie Hughes	T66	-5
2019	Stephan Jaeger	T66	-5
2019	Keith Mitchell	T66	-5
2019	J.J. Spaun	T66	-5
2019	Sebastián Muñoz	72	-4
2019	Talor Gooch	73	-3
2019	Ryan Blaum	T74	MCD
2019	Robert Garrigus	T74	MCD
2019	Bill Haas	T74	MCD
2019	Scott Stallings	T74	MCD
2019	Jimmy Walker	T74	MCD
2019	Roberto Díaz	T79	MCD
2019	Matt Every	T79	MCD
2019	Max Homa	T79	MCD
2019	Anders Albertson	82	MCD
2019	Tyler Duncan	83	MCD
2019	Anirban Lahiri	84	MCD
2019	Michael Thompson	85	MCD
2019	Sangmoon Bae	CUT	-
2019	Alex Cejka	CUT	-
2019	Cameron Davis	CUT	-
2019	Russell Henley	CUT	-
2019	Morgan Hoffmann	CUT	-
2019	Kelly Kraft	CUT	-
2019	Andrew Landry	CUT	-
2019	David Lingmerth	CUT	-
2019	Hunter Mahan	CUT	-
2019	Ollie Schniederjans	CUT	-
2019	Peter Uihlein	CUT	-
2019	Austin Cook	CUT	-
2019	Harris English	CUT	-
2019	Danny Lee	CUT	-
2019	Trey Mullinax	CUT	-
2019	Alvaro Ortiz	CUT	-
2019	Seth Reeves	CUT	-
2019	Sepp Straka	CUT	-
2019	Josh Teater	CUT	-
2019	Chris Thompson	CUT	-
2019	Mark Baldwin	CUT	-
2019	Kris Blanks	CUT	-
2019	Charley Hoffman	CUT	-
2019	Matt Jones	CUT	-
2019	Si Woo Kim	CUT	-
2019	Nate Lashley	CUT	-
2019	Luke List	CUT	-
2019	Nyasha Mauchaza	CUT	-
2019	Wes Roach	CUT	-
2019	Brian Dwyer	CUT	-
2019	J.J. Henry	CUT	-
2019	Scott Langley	CUT	-
2019	Adam Long	CUT	-
2019	Alex Prugh	CUT	-
2019	Adam Schenk	CUT	-
2019	Dominic Bozzelli	CUT	-
2019	Chad Campbell	CUT	-
2019	Cody Gribble	CUT	-
2019	Brandon Harkins	CUT	-
2019	Freddie Jacobson	CUT	-
2019	Michael Kim	CUT	-
2019	Ryan Moore	CUT	-
2019	Brady Schnell	CUT	-
2019	Chris Stroud	CUT	-
2019	Martin Trainer	CUT	-
2019	Chad Collins	CUT	-
2019	Colt Knost	CUT	-
2019	Martin Piller	CUT	-
2019	Jonas Blixt	CUT	-
2019	Sung Kang	CUT	-
2019	Kyoung-Hoon Lee	CUT	-
2019	Tom Lovelady	CUT	-
2019	Doc Redman	CUT	-
2019	Rory Sabbatini	CUT	-
2019	Tim Herron	CUT	-
2019	Smylie Kaufman	CUT	-
2019	Phil Mickelson	CUT	-
2019	Ben Crane	CUT	-
2019	Whee Kim	CUT	-
2019	Ted Potter, Jr.	CUT	-
2019	Nick Watney	CUT	-
2019	Cameron Champ	CUT	-
2019	Ben Silverman	CUT	-
2019	Julián Etulain	CUT	-
2019	Chesson Hadley	CUT	-
2019	John Chin	CUT	-
2019	Will Claxton	CUT	-
2019	Craig Brischke	CUT	-
2019	Kevin Na	W/D	-
2019	Nicholas Lindheim	W/D	-

Contest Approach

Copy and paste the form/ball striking approach I had from the PGA DFS Rocket Mortgage Classic (RMC) preview a few weeks ago. With possibly an even softer field than we saw in Detroit and very little course history to draw on, I want the sharpest tee-to-green game that is available. Players must provide themselves with the most convertible scoring chances as possible here, in what will likely be an Oregon Trail like grueling pace.

In terms of ball striking, Sam Ryder ranked a solid T-55 in 2019 as compared to his current 80th ranking. His weekend play at the Workday Charity Open two weeks ago suggests some potential return to form. Over the final two rounds, Ryder ranked 4th and 1st in strokes gained: tee-to-green (SGT2G), and strokes gained: approach-the-green (SGA), respectively. He also felt good enough to tweet about it which always translates to positive PGA DFS results.

Thanks @workday and Muirfield Village for a great week! Looking forward to picking up where we left off at @3MOpen pic.twitter.com/hPtCV0phcP

— Sam Ryder (@SamRyderSU) July 12, 2020

A missed cut from last week that I am also considering is Branden Grace. The Muirfield Village putting greens ate him up where he lost a substantial 4.2 strokes (12th worst) on the field over the first two days. In contrast, he ranked 6th in SGA before missing the weekend by two shots. If he can continue his stellar iron play (34th SGA season rank) at a course like this, he won’t have to deal with trampoline glass that Jack put out there in Dublin.

Young and Old

Another pony I’ll be backing this week is Kristoffer Ventura. The 25 year-old Norwegian snuck in a T-21 at the RMC. He earned his tour card by finishing ranked 4th in the final Korn Ferry Tour last season. What is wayyyy more impressive is the context that he achieved that ranking.

In his first seven starts (of just 11 total) in 2019, he won twice, including the Utah Championship presented by Zions Bank, which was just his sixth start of his pro career. Similar to Oklahoma St. college teammates Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland, Ventura appears to acclimate quickly to his competitive surroundings. Additionally, his 4.18 (22nd ranked) birdies per round on the PGA Tour this season bumps his PGA DFS upside a bit here, where 5-6 of them will be needed everyday to keep keep up.

From the deeper cut seats, I discussed the merits of Tom Lehman here last season. This event plays as a big home game for the five-time PGA Tour winner. The Minnesota native played this course when it was a regular event on the Champions Tour eight times, with six finishes inside the top-30. Last year in the 3MO, that familiarity translated nicely as he was just six shots behind the leaders heading into the final round, before firing a 73 in route to a T-58 finish.

3M Open Podcast

For a more thorough breakdown of every price range on DK, listen to my podcast below as Kyle Robert joins me again to play the weekly PGA DFS price range game. I think you will enjoy it. The podcast is also available on every major platform.

Core Players

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Tony Finau
3. Kristoffer Ventura

Good luck in Minnesota! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.