PGA DFS 3M Open Preview

If you need PGA DFS while waiting on reactions to Kawhi Leonard’s decision, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course, there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the 3M Open (3MO) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: TPC Twin Cities  Blaine, MN  Par 71  Yardage 7,468

From Detroit to another midwest town just north of Minneapolis, the PGA Tour heads to it’s second newest venue in as many weeks. TPC Twin Cities has been a regular event on the Champions Tour (senior tour circuit) for the past 18 years. It typically plays easy for the blue plate specialers, ranking one or two in birdies in each of the last seven years.

As an addition to the PGA schedule, upgrades have been made. Along with adding about 300 yards in length, they’ve converted one Par-5 into a longer Par-4, giving Twin Cities at least some defense from the scoring a PGA field can do. Based on what we saw at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week and how player friendly this course has been on Champions Tour, I doubt the adjustments will do much to stop this from being another birdie fest.

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Ball Striking (BS)
2. Strokes gained: Approach-the-green (SG: A)

Same approach as last week breaking down the field statistically. And why not? Ball strikers that have been consistently highlighted in this metric like Sepp Straka, Hank Lebioda have been returning tons of value week to week. If I would’ve waited until after the Monday qualifier to put together the table, Rocket Mortgage Classic winner Nate Lashley would’ve also showed up toward the top. Yes. I’m bitter.

 

Additionally, as discussed in previous weeks, without any relevant course history to rely on, ball striking is the best stat to emphasize, regardless of course layout. To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	BS	SG: A
Keegan Bradley	8800	7.5	11	4
Brooks Koepka	11900	8	5	11
Hideki Matsuyama	11100	8.5	14	3
Corey Conners	7400	12.5	4	21
Kevin Streelman	8900	25	16	34
Nate Lashley	8300	29	42	16
Sepp Straka	7500	29	23	35
Lucas Glover	7700	32	28	36
Joaquin Niemann	9300	32.5	36	29
Talor Gooch	7600	38	69	7
Troy Merritt	6900	38.5	20	57
Hank Lebioda	6900	39	24	54
Cameron Tringale	7700	47.5	64	31
Ryan Moore	8700	49.5	73	26
Scott Piercy	8200	49.5	20	79
Jason Day	10900	51	13	89
Alex Prugh	6700	51	8	94
Adam Schenk	6900	53	51	55
Bryson DeChambeau	10500	53.5	62	45
Sungjae Im	9000	53.5	25	82
Sam Ryder	7100	53.5	57	50
Sung Kang	7500	55.5	50	61
Kyle Stanley	7600	56.5	54	59
Charles Howell III	8400	59.5	6	113
Nick Watney	7900	59.5	34	85
Jason Dufner	7700	59.5	44	75
Josh Teater	6500	60	79	41
J.J. Spaun	7800	60.5	59	62
Keith Mitchell	7400	66.5	36	97
Trey Mullinax	6900	66.5	81	52
Russell Henley	7000	67	54	80
Shawn Stefani	6600	74.5	107	42
Adam Svensson	6300	74.5	112	37
Charley Hoffman	7800	80	132	28
Andrew Landry	6700	81.5	75	88
Cameron Davis	6300	83	77	89
Bud Cauley	7300	84	98	70
Kevin Na	8600	85.5	95	76
Tony Finau	9200	88	106	70
Roberto Castro	6400	89	138	40
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6900	89.5	70	109
Danny Lee	7600	90.5	117	64
Brendan Steele	7200	92	10	174
Carlos Ortiz	6600	92.5	39	146
Adam Hadwin	8100	93	58	128
Cameron Champ	7500	93	32	154
Dylan Frittelli	7200	94	95	93
Adam Long	6800	95	87	103
Martin Laird	7400	95.5	62	129
Bronson Burgoon	6800	95.5	53	138
Anders Albertson	6100	96.5	127	66
Rory Sabbatini	9500	98	94	102
Johnson Wagner	6200	98	79	117
Max Homa	7000	98.5	148	49
Luke List	7400	100.5	101	100
Brice Garnett	6800	101	33	169
Jim Knous	6200	103	115	91
Chesson Hadley	7300	105	147	63
Tom Hoge	6300	106	166	46
Scott Stallings	6900	106.5	153	60
Michael Thompson	7100	107.5	104	111
Daniel Berger	8000	108	93	123
Ryan Armour	6800	108	86	130
Tyler Duncan	6600	108	60	156
Sebastián Muñoz	6700	108.5	91	126
Chase Wright	6100	109.5	60	159
Phil Mickelson	8500	110	125	95
Peter Malnati	7800	114	186	42
Kramer Hickok	6400	114.5	67	162
Hunter Mahan	6100	115.5	39	192
Brandon Harkins	6700	116	113	119
Roger Sloan	6600	117	124	110
Jonas Blixt	7200	118	130	106
Ben Silverman	6500	118.5	104	133
Austin Cook	7000	120	99	141
Scott Brown	6800	122	110	134
Patrick Reed	10000	122.5	141	104
Wes Roach	7000	123	78	168
Jimmy Walker	7500	132	166	98
Matt Jones	7000	132.5	101	164
Harris English	6600	133.5	83	184
Fabián Gómez	6100	134	81	187
David Hearn	6700	137	121	153
Seth Reeves	6300	138	76	200
Robert Streb	6400	138.5	158	119
Mackenzie Hughes	7400	139.5	164	115
Sam Burns	7300	140.5	122	159
Alex Cejka	6100	141	182	100
Pat Perez	7600	141.5	162	121
Nick Taylor	7200	142.5	150	135
Denny McCarthy	7100	143	109	177
Roberto Díaz	7000	147.5	125	170
John Chin	6000	147.5	97	198
Sam Saunders	6400	149	171	127
Patton Kizzire	6500	149.5	159	140
Peter Uihlein	7100	150	151	149
Whee Kim	6000	153	181	125
Ted Potter, Jr.	6700	154	163	145
Brady Schnell	6200	155.5	145	166
Wyndham Clark	7100	156.5	120	193
J.J. Henry	6000	157	153	161
Richy Werenski	6100	158.5	165	152
Chris Thompson	6000	159	171	147
Beau Hossler	6900	162	127	197
Si Woo Kim	7300	162.5	160	165
Ben Crane	6200	163.5	183	144
Brian Gay	6400	164	149	179
Dominic Bozzelli	6400	165	139	191
Ryan Blaum	6700	166.5	177	156
Freddie Jacobson	6200	167.5	199	136
Brian Harman	8000	168.5	155	182
Ollie Schniederjans	6500	168.5	166	171
Kelly Kraft	6300	169	195	143
Joey Garber	6600	169.5	143	196
Stephan Jaeger	6800	171.5	176	167
Julián Etulain	6000	171.5	194	149
Sangmoon Bae	6500	173	157	189
Chris Stroud	6300	173.5	199	148
Satoshi Kodaira	6100	175	175	175
Kyle Jones	6000	175	160	190
Anirban Lahiri	6500	175.5	193	158
Bill Haas	7100	180.5	188	173
Scott Langley	6500	183	180	186
Rod Pampling	6200	185	186	184
Cody Gribble	6100	188.5	196	181
Martin Trainer	6200	192	183	201
Michael Kim	6000	192	201	183
Curtis Luck	6300	196.5	198	195
Viktor Hovland	9100	0	0	0
Collin Morikawa	7900	0	0	0
Matthew Wolff	7300	0	0	0
Doc Redman	7200	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	6800	0	0	0
Martin Piller	6600	0	0	0
Tyrone Van Aswegen	6500	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6400	0	0	0
Robert Garrigus	6400	0	0	0
Justin Suh	6300	0	0	0
Tom Lehman	6200	0	0	0
Derek Fathauer	6200	0	0	0
Charlie Danielson	6200	0	0	0
Will Claxton	6100	0	0	0
Tom Lovelady	6100	0	0	0
Morgan Hoffmann	6100	0	0	0
Smylie Kaufman	6100	0	0	0
David Berganio	6000	0	0	0
Chad Collins	6000	0	0	0
Kris Blanks	6000	0	0	0
Craig Brischke	6000	0	0	0
Tim Herron	6000	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6000	0	0	0
Alvaro Ortiz	6000	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 8.4k–16 players)

Last week’s shallow field setup nicely for Patrick Reed to get his season back on track, heading into the stretch run. And everyone’s loathed Masters Champion did just that.

His season long stats still won’t reflect it, but the Texas native’s ball striking was excellent in Detroit. Reed ended up ranking third in SG: Approach, and sixth in SG: Tee-to-green.

For this range, I’m sticking with the hot hands like Reed and Joaquin Niemann, who was also near the top of the field in ball striking last week.

Sweet Spot (8.3k to 7k–48 players)

That, of course, is the easy part. Hitting some top-10s from this range is where you will likely gain some separation from the DFS pack, and create the cap space for Reed this week.

A guy in terrific form, quietly having a nice comeback year after missing a whopping 19 cuts in 2018, is Cameron Tringale. He’s catapulted up my key stats metric after ranking second in SG: Tee-to-green in last week’s T-5 finish in Detroit.

As discussed, with unfamiliar courses, ball striking will likely continue to have the strongest correlation to good performances. The combination of that and form are my main focuses this week.

That said, it’s no surprise to see guys like Tringale, Talor Gooch, and Sepp Straka see a price bump this week.

Sneaky Low % Owned (Below 7k ~88 players)

Here is where you can take down a GPP if you guess errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr… I mean correctly select players. My favorite safer guys that rank well in key stats, and continue to churn out weekends consistently are Hank Lebioda and Adam Schenk.

From the super deep contrarian department, order me up some Tom Lehman. The Minnesota native and Gopher alum, has been one of the top players on the Champions Tour for the past decade. He’s played this event on that tour for eight consecutive years, and fared well with six finishes inside the top-30, including three top-10s.

Some course familiarity and hometown cookin from the fans is as good a reason as any to play the lotto on this 60 year-old. On the opposite side of his career, rookie Justin Suh will be looking to make it five time’s a charm for a made cut in Minnesota.

Fellow newly turned pros who have had some real success already like Doc Redman, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa will likely be bathed in chalk. For Suh, it’s just a matter of time until he joins them with a break through performance on the big tour. I’ll run him back as one of my favorite contrarian plays this week.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Corey Conners–Was all over him last week in a tough missed weekend. Great ball striking numbers all season. Should be motivated to get a career year back on track in a thin field.
• Tony Finau–He can’t miss FOUR in a row, can he?
• Ryan Moore–Hasn’t missed back to back weekends since early on in the season. Do not see that happening here.
• Lucas Golver–Cooled off a bit after a sizzling start to the year. Fantastic ball striker all season. Took last week off so he should be refreshed heading into Minnesota.

Best Course History Plays

Nothing to cover here. Might as well get to which core player will ruin my life this week like Conners did in Detroit. Actual footage of me riding in back looking at my phone during Friday’s round…

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Keegan
2. Niemann
3. Reed
4. Tringale

Good luck in Minnesota! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!