PGA DFS Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

The PGA DFS schedule has reopened! As a result, so has my obsession for guessing–ERRRRRR–selecting who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts into the foreseeable future.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do. Especially now.

First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always play a role.

Event Information

Course: Detroit Golf Club, Par 72, 7,334 yards, Detroit, MI

The PGA Tour is continuing reopen play over to one of its newest venues–right downtown in America’s Motor City. It is just the second year of this event, and if last year was any indication, tour pros are going to provide all the fireworks needed for this 4th of July weekend.

The 2019 winning score of 25 under par, came at the hands of Nate Lashley. The next best was Doc Redman, who finished six shots back to take sole second place. Additionally, the Friday cut line was one of the lowest of the year at -5, so an aggressive start is imperative in order to stick around for the weekend. Overall, expect another race to -20 this week to be in contention.

In terms of the course, it plays longer than the past few weeks have. That said, the forgiving layout allows all styles to succeed. In general, this course is extremely gettable for anyone playing well at the pro level. Overall, my Professor X assumptions on player confidence and recent form will be a crutch for me in any tie breaker decisions.

Key Metrics and Odds (NEW)

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and a precise approach performance.

Moving forward, I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

  • BS–50%
  • SGA–35%
  • SGP–15%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

NameSalaryVegas OddsWA (50, 35, 15)BSSGASGP
Tyrrell Hatton1070014/16.151112
Webb Simpson1100012/17.358413
Bryson DeChambeau1170013/216.853123
Adam Hadwin820060/123.75163328
Viktor Hovland1000016/131.851912121
Doc Redman850040/1351417147
Harold Varner III760065/139.851925144
Sungjae Im980020/140.6364448
Hideki Matsuyama1020014/141.4177203
Emiliano Grillo7100100/142.31011223
Chesson Hadley6800150/147.352726165
Lucas Glover840050/147.52441141
Scottie Scheffler900034/151.752361126
Russell Knox6600150/153.74524152
Sebastián Muñoz7100100/154.2584563
Cameron Percy6500270/154.755916131
D.J. Trahan6000420/155.51554194
Tony Finau930029/156.255034129
Kyle Stanley710080/1634440180
Bubba Watson920034/170.95649831
James Hahn6500320/176.858851100
Johnson Wagner6100210/179.356211554
Rickie Fowler950027/180.6937064
Tyler Duncan700090/181.058056143
Will Gordon730090/181.54513090
Cameron Tringale6600170/182.211328106
Pat Perez6500150/184.151075283
Aaron Wise6700130/184.5535105202
Cameron Davis6500210/186.25291189
Joseph Bramlett7500130/186.57076166
Henrik Norlander6500210/187.0543117164
Sepp Straka6700100/188.367103125
Mark Hubbard7200100/189.051019633
Luke List6700130/189.77866184
Lanto Griffin6800130/1919111242
Kevin Na910031/191148466
Adam Schenk6700270/191.55215868
Bo Hoag6200320/191.951146102
Scott Stallings750080/194.810869111
Tyler McCumber6300270/196.18372196
Tom Hoge7000150/197.11652246
Peter Uihlein7000170/197.31365567
Roberto Castro6100320/199.373107169
Ben Taylor6000500/199.5510490107
Harry Higgs6800130/1100.26916260
Josh Teater6400270/1100.2518166221
Sam Ryder6500210/1100.410882118
Michael Gellerman6000420/1100.711575113
Stewart Cink6400270/1101.514243103
Brendon Todd780050/1102.359813150
Robby Shelton6000320/1102.4598100123
Chase Seiffert6200420/1102.611610650
Brian Harman790060/11031387161
Tim Wilkinson6200420/1103.879128130
Maverick McNealy760065/1104.910813622
Branden Grace770060/1105.613842146
David Hearn6000420/1105.695121105
Keegan Bradley730070/1105.78597195
Christiaan Bezuidenhout830060/1108.652041314
Talor Gooch7000210/1109.351329958
Jason Dufner6800100/1111.9511764207
Rafa Cabrera Bello810065/1113.512212656
Ryan Armour6900130/1114.2570142197
Xinjun Zhang6100320/1116.8513683132
Patrick Reed1050016/1120.75199594
Shawn Stefani6300320/1121.0554189186
Matthew Wolff680080/1121.5510116198
Kristoffer Ventura6400320/1122.31012035
Alex Noren780065/1122.314610486
Austin Cook6300270/1122.6560215116
J.T. Poston870042/1122.71321597
Chris Baker6100420/1123.465171207
Seamus Power6000420/1123.612514862
Erik Van Rooyen800060/1123.716853141
Brian Stuard7400100/1125.114412074
Ted Potter, Jr.6200270/1125.15129109150
Patrick Rodgers740080/1125.3512018211
Fabián Gómez6200420/1125.9105151137
Michael Thompson710080/112612116747
Kyoung-Hoon Lee6300320/1126.7597155160
Zack Sucher6200320/1127.6117119183
Brandon Hagy6500270/1129.792195103
Bronson Burgoon6200320/1130.216611644
Ryan Brehm6000420/1130.3575180199
Richy Werenski6500210/1130.915713925
Mark Anderson6100420/113118268108
Robert Streb6400320/1134.95129122185
Hudson Swafford6400270/1136.318010173
Charl Schwartzel6900150/1138.4223739
Jimmy Walker6600130/1138.8520627176
Scott Harrington6100420/1140.3112183135
Bill Haas6200270/1142.2117144222
Kevin Kisner770060/1143.2515015691
Nate Lashley6600130/1143.317314052
Rory Sabbatini880040/1143.5159134114
Andrew Putnam6700150/1145.21881453
Ben Martin6600150/1145.318211496
Jonathan Byrd6100420/1146.5517577214
Wes Roach7300130/1146.6587209200
Chris Kirk720080/1147.25134138213
Sam Burns6900130/1147.615418539
Jamie Lovemark6400320/1148.12139458
Brandt Snedeker790042/1148.917217218
Doug Ghim6000320/1149.7105204172
Beau Hossler6700210/1154.5515820916
C.T. Pan6400130/1154.7167110218
Vincent Whaley6300320/1156.815219193
Troy Merritt6400270/1158.116919438
Matt Jones6500170/1159.25156173138
Dominic Bozzelli6000500/1160.0520415037
Grayson Murray6400270/1160.1134176210
Ricky Barnes6000500/1161.3522512534
Brian Gay6100320/1162.320713577
Scott Brown6200320/1164.4150192148
Kevin Tway6300320/1165.1193118182
Jason Day860045/1165.55154187154
Kevin Chappell6600210/1165.9519216972
Michael Gligic6000500/1165.95171178121
Wyndham Clark6600130/1168.7518520530
Luke Donald6300270/1169.922412985
Danny Willett6600130/1170.3520315988
Chris Stroud6300270/1171.25208124159
Aaron Baddeley6200320/1171.920915197
Kramer Hickok6000320/1172.5144207187
J.J. Spaun6300320/1172.65191157148
Rob Oppenheim6100500/1173.7195132200
Lucas Bjerregaard6100320/1174.9179190126
Rhein Gibson6100420/1175.619921115
Sebastian Cappelen6000500/1178.317822082
Matt Every6100500/1178.6195140214
Patton Kizzire6900130/1181.121520024
Zac Blair6200270/1182.921519743
Matt Wallace6700130/1183.9163221167
Hank Lebioda6200320/1184.75187184179
Peter Malnati6300320/1186.6522120627
Steve Stricker6300270/1187.521020181
Si Woo Kim720065/1189.35201181170
Arjun Atwal6100500/1191.75177199224
Nelson Ledesma6100500/1194.8521821766
Roger Sloan6200320/1196.55198196193
John Senden6000500/1198.35211216115
Michael Kim6000500/1214.6220223177
Martin Trainer60001000/1216.45219225188
Bo Van Pelt60001000/1216.5214222212

*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify and/or did not have odds posted as of 6/29/20

Course History

The table below is a quick way to search any player’s past performance in this event. The simplest way to use it is to search the player’s name. This will execute a quick filter of just that one player’s historical appearances at this event. Being just the second year at this venue, there isn’t much to consider here.

YearPlayerFinish
2019Nate Lashley1
2019Doc Redman2
2019Wes RoachT3
2019Rory SabbatiniT3
2019Joaquin NiemannT5
2019Ted Potter, Jr.T5
2019Patrick ReedT5
2019Brandt SnedekerT5
2019Brian StuardT5
2019Cameron TringaleT5
2019J.T. PostonT11
2019Sepp StrakaT11
2019Byeong Hun AnT13
2019Viktor HovlandT13
2019Hideki MatsuyamaT13
2019J.J. SpaunT13
2019Wyndham ClarkT17
2019Brice GarnettT17
2019Talor GoochT17
2019Billy HorschelT17
2019J.B. HolmesT21
2019Mackenzie HughesT21
2019Sungjae ImT21
2019Danny LeeT21
2019Denny McCarthyT21
2019Roger SloanT21
2019Kyle StanleyT21
2019Jimmy WalkerT21
2019Jonas BlixtT29
2019Cameron SmithT29
2019Joey GarberT29
2019Jason KokrakT29
2019Peter MalnatiT29
2019Martin PillerT29
2019Bronson BurgoonT35
2019Shawn StefaniT35
2019Kevin StreelmanT35
2019Nick TaylorT35
2019Josh TeaterT35
2019Aaron WiseT35
2019Charles Howell IIIT35
2019Sam BurnsT42
2019Max HomaT42
2019Anirban LahiriT42
2019Adam SchenkT42
2019Ryan ArmourT46
2019Cameron ChampT46
2019Luke DonaldT46
2019Rickie FowlerT46
2019Dylan FrittelliT46
2019Kevin KisnerT46
2019Vaughn TaylorT46
2019Nick WatneyT46
2019Chase WrightT46
2019Harris EnglishT55
2019Carlos OrtizT55
2019Seth ReevesT55
2019Brendan SteeleT55
2019Dominic BozzelliT59
2019Roberto CastroT59
2019Bud CauleyT59
2019Colt KnostT59
2019Andrew LandryT59
2019Anders AlbertsonT64
2019Chad CollinsT64
2019Tom HogeT64
2019Wes HomanT64
2019Scott StallingsT64
2019Kyle Jones69
2019Stewart Cink70
2019Smylie Kaufman71
2019Scott BrownCUT
2019Jason DufnerCUT
2019Brian GayCUT
2019Brian HarmanCUT
2019Adam LongCUT
2019Sam RyderCUT
2019Ben SilvermanCUT
2019Robert StrebCUT
2019Adam SvenssonCUT
2019Kevin TwayCUT
2019Peter UihleinCUT
2019Mike WeirCUT
2019Ryan BlaumCUT
2019Brandon HarkinsCUT
2019Charley HoffmanCUT
2019Beau HosslerCUT
2019Martin LairdCUT
2019Scott LangleyCUT
2019Hank LebiodaCUT
2019Corey ConnersCUT
2019Austin CookCUT
2019Stephan JaegerCUT
2019Dustin JohnsonCUT
2019Matt JonesCUT
2019Patton KizzireCUT
2019Kyoung-Hoon LeeCUT
2019Nicholas LindheimCUT
2019Keith MitchellCUT
2019Sebastián MuñozCUT
2019Rod PamplingCUT
2019Alex PrughCUT
2019Sam SaundersCUT
2019Brady SchnellCUT
2019Justin SuhCUT
2019Michael ThompsonCUT
2019Austen TruslowCUT
2019Harold Varner IIICUT
2019Gary WoodlandCUT
2019Alex CejkaCUT
2019Tyler DuncanCUT
2019Cody GribbleCUT
2019Matt HarmonCUT
2019Russell HenleyCUT
2019Kramer HickokCUT
2019Morgan HoffmannCUT
2019Billy Hurley IIICUT
2019Freddie JacobsonCUT
2019Sung KangCUT
2019Whee KimCUT
2019Kelly KraftCUT
2019Curtis LuckCUT
2019Ryan MooreCUT
2019Trey MullinaxCUT
2019Chez ReavieCUT
2019Bubba WatsonCUT
2019Matthew WolffCUT
2019Cameron DavisCUT
2019Roberto DíazCUT
2019Jim HermanCUT
2019Troy MerrittCUT
2019José de Jesús RodríguezCUT
2019Martin TrainerCUT
2019Luke ListCUT
2019Hunter MahanCUT
2019Chip McDanielCUT
2019Zack SucherCUT
2019Chris ThompsonCUT
2019John ChinCUT
2019Will ClaxtonCUT
2019Fabián GómezCUT
2019Chesson HadleyCUT
2019Satoshi KodairaCUT
2019Ryan VermeerCUT
2019Si Woo KimCUT
2019Ollie SchniederjansCUT
2019J.J. HenryCUT
2019Ernie ElsCUT
2019Seamus PowerCUT
2019Richy WerenskiCUT
2019Michael KimCUT
2019Sangmoon BaeCUT
2019Zachary BauchouCUT
2019Lee HouttemanCUT
2019Chris StroudW/D
2019Will MacKenzieW/D

Contest Approach

With course history kind of out the window, I will be placing an emphasis on form heading into a venue that will likely be another birdie fest, where 5-6 birdies per round will be needed to stay in contention. Whether it’s been here or the podcast, Doc Redman has been a favorite building block all season for me because of his outstanding ball striking.

Russell Knox (Source: Andrew Redington/Getty Images North America)

For the same statistical reason, and because Redman’s price isn’t building block qualified anymore, guys like Chesson Hadley and Russell Knox jump out this week. Knox hasn’t had the form lately so he would be the contrarian play that could work wonders in GPPs if he can find his game in Detroit.

Someone that was discussed on the podcast last week was Kyle Stanley. He carded three sub 70 rounds last week in route to a T-24 finish. He is not that far removed from being a Tour Championship level guy, and is someone to definitely watch in the coming weeks. A soft field like this could prove to be a nice spot for him to follow up on his Travelers Championhsip performance.

For a more detailed discussion on the entire field, listen as Kyle Robert joins me again to play the weekly PGA DFS DK price range game. Click below to listen! I think you will enjoy it. The podcast is also available on every major platform.

Core Players

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

  1. Sungjae Im
  2. Alex Noren
  3. Tyrell Hatton
  4. Tony Finau

Good luck at Cromwell! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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