PGA DFS Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

The PGA DFS schedule has reopened! As a result, so has my obsession for guessing–ERRRRRR–selecting who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts into the foreseeable future.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do. Especially now.

First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always play a role.

Event Information

Course: Detroit Golf Club, Par 72, 7,334 yards, Detroit, MI

The PGA Tour is continuing reopen play over to one of its newest venues–right downtown in America’s Motor City. It is just the second year of this event, and if last year was any indication, tour pros are going to provide all the fireworks needed for this 4th of July weekend.

The 2019 winning score of 25 under par, came at the hands of Nate Lashley. The next best was Doc Redman, who finished six shots back to take sole second place. Additionally, the Friday cut line was one of the lowest of the year at -5, so an aggressive start is imperative in order to stick around for the weekend. Overall, expect another race to -20 this week to be in contention.

In terms of the course, it plays longer than the past few weeks have. That said, the forgiving layout allows all styles to succeed. In general, this course is extremely gettable for anyone playing well at the pro level. Overall, my Professor X assumptions on player confidence and recent form will be a crutch for me in any tie breaker decisions.

Key Metrics and Odds (NEW)

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and a precise approach performance.

Moving forward, I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

• BS–50%
• SGA–35%
• SGP–15%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

Name	Salary	Vegas Odds	WA (50, 35, 15)	BS	SGA	SGP
Tyrrell Hatton	10700	14/1	6.15	11	1	2
Webb Simpson	11000	12/1	7.35	8	4	13
Bryson DeChambeau	11700	13/2	16.8	5	31	23
Adam Hadwin	8200	60/1	23.75	16	33	28
Viktor Hovland	10000	16/1	31.85	19	12	121
Doc Redman	8500	40/1	35	14	17	147
Harold Varner III	7600	65/1	39.85	19	25	144
Sungjae Im	9800	20/1	40.6	36	44	48
Hideki Matsuyama	10200	14/1	41.4	17	7	203
Emiliano Grillo	7100	100/1	42.3	10	11	223
Chesson Hadley	6800	150/1	47.35	27	26	165
Lucas Glover	8400	50/1	47.5	24	41	141
Scottie Scheffler	9000	34/1	51.75	23	61	126
Russell Knox	6600	150/1	53.7	45	24	152
Sebastián Muñoz	7100	100/1	54.2	58	45	63
Cameron Percy	6500	270/1	54.75	59	16	131
D.J. Trahan	6000	420/1	55.5	15	54	194
Tony Finau	9300	29/1	56.25	50	34	129
Kyle Stanley	7100	80/1	63	44	40	180
Bubba Watson	9200	34/1	70.95	64	98	31
James Hahn	6500	320/1	76.85	88	51	100
Johnson Wagner	6100	210/1	79.35	62	115	54
Rickie Fowler	9500	27/1	80.6	93	70	64
Tyler Duncan	7000	90/1	81.05	80	56	143
Will Gordon	7300	90/1	81.5	45	130	90
Cameron Tringale	6600	170/1	82.2	113	28	106
Pat Perez	6500	150/1	84.15	107	52	83
Aaron Wise	6700	130/1	84.55	35	105	202
Cameron Davis	6500	210/1	86.2	52	91	189
Joseph Bramlett	7500	130/1	86.5	70	76	166
Henrik Norlander	6500	210/1	87.05	43	117	164
Sepp Straka	6700	100/1	88.3	67	103	125
Mark Hubbard	7200	100/1	89.05	101	96	33
Luke List	6700	130/1	89.7	78	66	184
Lanto Griffin	6800	130/1	91	91	112	42
Kevin Na	9100	31/1	91	148	46	6
Adam Schenk	6700	270/1	91.5	52	158	68
Bo Hoag	6200	320/1	91.9	51	146	102
Scott Stallings	7500	80/1	94.8	108	69	111
Tyler McCumber	6300	270/1	96.1	83	72	196
Tom Hoge	7000	150/1	97.1	165	22	46
Peter Uihlein	7000	170/1	97.3	136	55	67
Roberto Castro	6100	320/1	99.3	73	107	169
Ben Taylor	6000	500/1	99.55	104	90	107
Harry Higgs	6800	130/1	100.2	69	162	60
Josh Teater	6400	270/1	100.25	18	166	221
Sam Ryder	6500	210/1	100.4	108	82	118
Michael Gellerman	6000	420/1	100.7	115	75	113
Stewart Cink	6400	270/1	101.5	142	43	103
Brendon Todd	7800	50/1	102.35	98	131	50
Robby Shelton	6000	320/1	102.45	98	100	123
Chase Seiffert	6200	420/1	102.6	116	106	50
Brian Harman	7900	60/1	103	138	71	61
Tim Wilkinson	6200	420/1	103.8	79	128	130
Maverick McNealy	7600	65/1	104.9	108	136	22
Branden Grace	7700	60/1	105.6	138	42	146
David Hearn	6000	420/1	105.6	95	121	105
Keegan Bradley	7300	70/1	105.7	85	97	195
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	8300	60/1	108.65	204	13	14
Talor Gooch	7000	210/1	109.35	132	99	58
Jason Dufner	6800	100/1	111.95	117	64	207
Rafa Cabrera Bello	8100	65/1	113.5	122	126	56
Ryan Armour	6900	130/1	114.25	70	142	197
Xinjun Zhang	6100	320/1	116.85	136	83	132
Patrick Reed	10500	16/1	120.75	199	59	4
Shawn Stefani	6300	320/1	121.05	54	189	186
Matthew Wolff	6800	80/1	121.55	101	161	98
Kristoffer Ventura	6400	320/1	122.3	101	203	5
Alex Noren	7800	65/1	122.3	146	104	86
Austin Cook	6300	270/1	122.65	60	215	116
J.T. Poston	8700	42/1	122.7	132	159	7
Chris Baker	6100	420/1	123.4	65	171	207
Seamus Power	6000	420/1	123.6	125	148	62
Erik Van Rooyen	8000	60/1	123.7	168	53	141
Brian Stuard	7400	100/1	125.1	144	120	74
Ted Potter, Jr.	6200	270/1	125.15	129	109	150
Patrick Rodgers	7400	80/1	125.35	120	182	11
Fabián Gómez	6200	420/1	125.9	105	151	137
Michael Thompson	7100	80/1	126	121	167	47
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6300	320/1	126.75	97	155	160
Zack Sucher	6200	320/1	127.6	117	119	183
Brandon Hagy	6500	270/1	129.7	92	195	103
Bronson Burgoon	6200	320/1	130.2	166	116	44
Ryan Brehm	6000	420/1	130.35	75	180	199
Richy Werenski	6500	210/1	130.9	157	139	25
Mark Anderson	6100	420/1	131	182	68	108
Robert Streb	6400	320/1	134.95	129	122	185
Hudson Swafford	6400	270/1	136.3	180	101	73
Charl Schwartzel	6900	150/1	138.4	223	73	9
Jimmy Walker	6600	130/1	138.85	206	27	176
Scott Harrington	6100	420/1	140.3	112	183	135
Bill Haas	6200	270/1	142.2	117	144	222
Kevin Kisner	7700	60/1	143.25	150	156	91
Nate Lashley	6600	130/1	143.3	173	140	52
Rory Sabbatini	8800	40/1	143.5	159	134	114
Andrew Putnam	6700	150/1	145.2	188	145	3
Ben Martin	6600	150/1	145.3	182	114	96
Jonathan Byrd	6100	420/1	146.55	175	77	214
Wes Roach	7300	130/1	146.65	87	209	200
Chris Kirk	7200	80/1	147.25	134	138	213
Sam Burns	6900	130/1	147.6	154	185	39
Jamie Lovemark	6400	320/1	148.1	213	94	58
Brandt Snedeker	7900	42/1	148.9	172	172	18
Doug Ghim	6000	320/1	149.7	105	204	172
Beau Hossler	6700	210/1	154.55	158	209	16
C.T. Pan	6400	130/1	154.7	167	110	218
Vincent Whaley	6300	320/1	156.8	152	191	93
Troy Merritt	6400	270/1	158.1	169	194	38
Matt Jones	6500	170/1	159.25	156	173	138
Dominic Bozzelli	6000	500/1	160.05	204	150	37
Grayson Murray	6400	270/1	160.1	134	176	210
Ricky Barnes	6000	500/1	161.35	225	125	34
Brian Gay	6100	320/1	162.3	207	135	77
Scott Brown	6200	320/1	164.4	150	192	148
Kevin Tway	6300	320/1	165.1	193	118	182
Jason Day	8600	45/1	165.55	154	187	154
Kevin Chappell	6600	210/1	165.95	192	169	72
Michael Gligic	6000	500/1	165.95	171	178	121
Wyndham Clark	6600	130/1	168.75	185	205	30
Luke Donald	6300	270/1	169.9	224	129	85
Danny Willett	6600	130/1	170.35	203	159	88
Chris Stroud	6300	270/1	171.25	208	124	159
Aaron Baddeley	6200	320/1	171.9	209	151	97
Kramer Hickok	6000	320/1	172.5	144	207	187
J.J. Spaun	6300	320/1	172.65	191	157	148
Rob Oppenheim	6100	500/1	173.7	195	132	200
Lucas Bjerregaard	6100	320/1	174.9	179	190	126
Rhein Gibson	6100	420/1	175.6	199	211	15
Sebastian Cappelen	6000	500/1	178.3	178	220	82
Matt Every	6100	500/1	178.6	195	140	214
Patton Kizzire	6900	130/1	181.1	215	200	24
Zac Blair	6200	270/1	182.9	215	197	43
Matt Wallace	6700	130/1	183.9	163	221	167
Hank Lebioda	6200	320/1	184.75	187	184	179
Peter Malnati	6300	320/1	186.65	221	206	27
Steve Stricker	6300	270/1	187.5	210	201	81
Si Woo Kim	7200	65/1	189.35	201	181	170
Arjun Atwal	6100	500/1	191.75	177	199	224
Nelson Ledesma	6100	500/1	194.85	218	217	66
Roger Sloan	6200	320/1	196.55	198	196	193
John Senden	6000	500/1	198.35	211	216	115
Michael Kim	6000	500/1	214.6	220	223	177
Martin Trainer	6000	1000/1	216.45	219	225	188
Bo Van Pelt	6000	1000/1	216.5	214	222	212

*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify and/or did not have odds posted as of 6/29/20

Course History

The table below is a quick way to search any player’s past performance in this event. The simplest way to use it is to search the player’s name. This will execute a quick filter of just that one player’s historical appearances at this event. Being just the second year at this venue, there isn’t much to consider here.

Year	Player	Finish
2019	Nate Lashley	1
2019	Doc Redman	2
2019	Wes Roach	T3
2019	Rory Sabbatini	T3
2019	Joaquin Niemann	T5
2019	Ted Potter, Jr.	T5
2019	Patrick Reed	T5
2019	Brandt Snedeker	T5
2019	Brian Stuard	T5
2019	Cameron Tringale	T5
2019	J.T. Poston	T11
2019	Sepp Straka	T11
2019	Byeong Hun An	T13
2019	Viktor Hovland	T13
2019	Hideki Matsuyama	T13
2019	J.J. Spaun	T13
2019	Wyndham Clark	T17
2019	Brice Garnett	T17
2019	Talor Gooch	T17
2019	Billy Horschel	T17
2019	J.B. Holmes	T21
2019	Mackenzie Hughes	T21
2019	Sungjae Im	T21
2019	Danny Lee	T21
2019	Denny McCarthy	T21
2019	Roger Sloan	T21
2019	Kyle Stanley	T21
2019	Jimmy Walker	T21
2019	Jonas Blixt	T29
2019	Cameron Smith	T29
2019	Joey Garber	T29
2019	Jason Kokrak	T29
2019	Peter Malnati	T29
2019	Martin Piller	T29
2019	Bronson Burgoon	T35
2019	Shawn Stefani	T35
2019	Kevin Streelman	T35
2019	Nick Taylor	T35
2019	Josh Teater	T35
2019	Aaron Wise	T35
2019	Charles Howell III	T35
2019	Sam Burns	T42
2019	Max Homa	T42
2019	Anirban Lahiri	T42
2019	Adam Schenk	T42
2019	Ryan Armour	T46
2019	Cameron Champ	T46
2019	Luke Donald	T46
2019	Rickie Fowler	T46
2019	Dylan Frittelli	T46
2019	Kevin Kisner	T46
2019	Vaughn Taylor	T46
2019	Nick Watney	T46
2019	Chase Wright	T46
2019	Harris English	T55
2019	Carlos Ortiz	T55
2019	Seth Reeves	T55
2019	Brendan Steele	T55
2019	Dominic Bozzelli	T59
2019	Roberto Castro	T59
2019	Bud Cauley	T59
2019	Colt Knost	T59
2019	Andrew Landry	T59
2019	Anders Albertson	T64
2019	Chad Collins	T64
2019	Tom Hoge	T64
2019	Wes Homan	T64
2019	Scott Stallings	T64
2019	Kyle Jones	69
2019	Stewart Cink	70
2019	Smylie Kaufman	71
2019	Scott Brown	CUT
2019	Jason Dufner	CUT
2019	Brian Gay	CUT
2019	Brian Harman	CUT
2019	Adam Long	CUT
2019	Sam Ryder	CUT
2019	Ben Silverman	CUT
2019	Robert Streb	CUT
2019	Adam Svensson	CUT
2019	Kevin Tway	CUT
2019	Peter Uihlein	CUT
2019	Mike Weir	CUT
2019	Ryan Blaum	CUT
2019	Brandon Harkins	CUT
2019	Charley Hoffman	CUT
2019	Beau Hossler	CUT
2019	Martin Laird	CUT
2019	Scott Langley	CUT
2019	Hank Lebioda	CUT
2019	Corey Conners	CUT
2019	Austin Cook	CUT
2019	Stephan Jaeger	CUT
2019	Dustin Johnson	CUT
2019	Matt Jones	CUT
2019	Patton Kizzire	CUT
2019	Kyoung-Hoon Lee	CUT
2019	Nicholas Lindheim	CUT
2019	Keith Mitchell	CUT
2019	Sebastián Muñoz	CUT
2019	Rod Pampling	CUT
2019	Alex Prugh	CUT
2019	Sam Saunders	CUT
2019	Brady Schnell	CUT
2019	Justin Suh	CUT
2019	Michael Thompson	CUT
2019	Austen Truslow	CUT
2019	Harold Varner III	CUT
2019	Gary Woodland	CUT
2019	Alex Cejka	CUT
2019	Tyler Duncan	CUT
2019	Cody Gribble	CUT
2019	Matt Harmon	CUT
2019	Russell Henley	CUT
2019	Kramer Hickok	CUT
2019	Morgan Hoffmann	CUT
2019	Billy Hurley III	CUT
2019	Freddie Jacobson	CUT
2019	Sung Kang	CUT
2019	Whee Kim	CUT
2019	Kelly Kraft	CUT
2019	Curtis Luck	CUT
2019	Ryan Moore	CUT
2019	Trey Mullinax	CUT
2019	Chez Reavie	CUT
2019	Bubba Watson	CUT
2019	Matthew Wolff	CUT
2019	Cameron Davis	CUT
2019	Roberto Díaz	CUT
2019	Jim Herman	CUT
2019	Troy Merritt	CUT
2019	José de Jesús Rodríguez	CUT
2019	Martin Trainer	CUT
2019	Luke List	CUT
2019	Hunter Mahan	CUT
2019	Chip McDaniel	CUT
2019	Zack Sucher	CUT
2019	Chris Thompson	CUT
2019	John Chin	CUT
2019	Will Claxton	CUT
2019	Fabián Gómez	CUT
2019	Chesson Hadley	CUT
2019	Satoshi Kodaira	CUT
2019	Ryan Vermeer	CUT
2019	Si Woo Kim	CUT
2019	Ollie Schniederjans	CUT
2019	J.J. Henry	CUT
2019	Ernie Els	CUT
2019	Seamus Power	CUT
2019	Richy Werenski	CUT
2019	Michael Kim	CUT
2019	Sangmoon Bae	CUT
2019	Zachary Bauchou	CUT
2019	Lee Houtteman	CUT
2019	Chris Stroud	W/D
2019	Will MacKenzie	W/D

Contest Approach

With course history kind of out the window, I will be placing an emphasis on form heading into a venue that will likely be another birdie fest, where 5-6 birdies per round will be needed to stay in contention. Whether it’s been here or the podcast, Doc Redman has been a favorite building block all season for me because of his outstanding ball striking.

For the same statistical reason, and because Redman’s price isn’t building block qualified anymore, guys like Chesson Hadley and Russell Knox jump out this week. Knox hasn’t had the form lately so he would be the contrarian play that could work wonders in GPPs if he can find his game in Detroit.

Someone that was discussed on the podcast last week was Kyle Stanley. He carded three sub 70 rounds last week in route to a T-24 finish. He is not that far removed from being a Tour Championship level guy, and is someone to definitely watch in the coming weeks. A soft field like this could prove to be a nice spot for him to follow up on his Travelers Championhsip performance.

For a more detailed discussion on the entire field, listen as Kyle Robert joins me again to play the weekly PGA DFS DK price range game. Click below to listen! I think you will enjoy it. The podcast is also available on every major platform.

Core Players

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

1. Sungjae Im
2. Alex Noren
3. Tyrell Hatton
4. Tony Finau

Good luck at Cromwell! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.