ATLANTA FALCONS – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card.

NFC SOUTH_ATLANTA FALCONS

ATLANTA FALCONS – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card. This article focuses on three tables and their analysis.

  1. 2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels
  2. 2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages
  3. 2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.

I suggest these will present a landscape of simple data from 2019 vs. the current 2020 preseason rankings. Link to my Current Rankings Below. 

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2020/05/18/early-2020-ppr-rankings-with-uncertainty-analysis/

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2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels

This Table includes:

  • Team
  • Bye Week
  • Position Rankings
  • Position
  • Overall Name
  • Fantasy Sport’s Professor’s Rankings (Scale of 100 to 0-Green to Red)
  • Uncertainty Level of High, Average or Low

The DST and K are not in play for 2020, ranked at 25th and 17th. 

QB and RBs.

Matt Ryan has been a solid production QB for several years, and nothing suggests that changes in 2020. I rank him at QB 8th with low uncertainty levels. He is an excellent later QB selection. 

The RBs have changed from 2019 as ATL added Gurley to their crew and freed Freeman. The idea is that Gurley is a better fit for the ATL offense by keeping the defenses honest and allowing the passing game to excel. I rank Gurley at RB 16th with low uncertainty. The issue is his injury profile. I would definitively take a handcuff for him in Smith at RB 66th and Hill at 90th. They are very cheap, and best ball late plays. 

TE and WRs. 

The TE landscape changed as Hooper was let go, and Hurst was added. Hurst has juice, and I think fits well in the red-zone. I rank him at TE 14th but high in uncertainty. I would draft him is the opportunity is there. Do not not reach for him, though, as the injury issues exist. I nice TE2 type in best ball. 

ATL makes it fortune on its two WRs, Jones and Ridley who are both WR1 types. I rank both with low uncertainty and at WR 4 and WR 16. Gage and Treadwell at >WR 99 are forgotten injury handcuffs and worth a gamble late in best ball. 

 ATLANTA FALCONS - Professor's NFL Team Flash Card.

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2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages

This Table presents:

  • Team
  • Position
  • 2016 to 2019 Fantasy Point Averages 
  • 4 Year Sum of Averages
  • % of Positional Usage by the 4-Year Date
  • % of 2019 Team Usages
  • DIFF – 2019 vs. last 4-year % Usages (Improving or Declining)

ATLANTA FALCONS – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card.  ATL has had a lot of changes coming out of 2019. They added Gurley and Treadwell and released Freeman and Hooper. In 2019, the QB, TE, and WR increased in Fantasy Point usage by 2.1, 1.5% and +0.7%. Hooper is gone, but Hayden Hurst was brought in. Hurst has an excellent pedigree and can be a force as a TE in a system that gave us a TE3 in 2019 and TE 10 in 2018. I will be taking Hurst as a sleeper TE 14 or later.

As with this increase, the RBs dropped by -4.3% in usage. In 2019, Freeman was at 184 ATTs and 71 Targets vs. Gurley’s 223 and 28. This suggests Gurley is the rushing guy for 220 ATTs. The other 2019 RBs for ATL were 65. Brian Hill and 80. Ito Smith. It is murky who is the RB2 to Gurley, but Hill would seem to be the obvious choice while Smith is the 3rd down guy. Double Tops in QB and TE

ATLANTA FALCONS - Professor's NFL Team Flash Card.

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 2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.

This Table contains:

  • Team
  • Position
  • 2015 to 2019 Targets Per Game
  • 5 Year Average of Targets Per Game
  • %2019 Usages in Targeting
  • % 5-Year Positional Usage Average
  • DIFF 2019 vs 5-Year Average of Team Positional Usages

ATLANTA FALCONS – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card.  Overall Comments: RBs have seen a decreased targeting trend and the 2019 season difference was a drop by 5.2% in team targets. ATL has shuffled the RBs by bringing Gurley along with keeping Ito Smith and Brian Hill. My guess is ATL would like to get back to 2.00 levels in targets/game (T/G). Gurley is currently at RB 16 ish.

Secondly, ATL also moved Hooper the TE out and brought in Hayden Hurst as his replacement, but it is far from certain the 2020 season outcome for him. He is a solid late TE 14 shot only.

Finally, the WRs have been the rock ATL has used actively for the last five years, and I predict that it does not change. 2020 seems to have the RB vs. TE to fight for usages with the WRs as previously used in team targeting. Do not forget Gage as an injury handcuff. 

ATL TATLANTA FALCONS - Professor's NFL Team Flash Card.

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