One of my favorite mini-slates of the year is back and I figured as we’re enjoying all that good Thanksgiving day food and time with our families, why not have a little DFS sweat? It’s only a 3 game slate, so I’m not going overboard here but nonetheless pass the stuffing and let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Drew Brees, $6800, New Orleans Saints
20% projected ownership
I’m not getting cute here with such a small player pool at the position. This is the game to target because of passing volume, likelihood of a shoot out and it being played in the dome. The Saints have the highest implied total at 28 and have the best matchup against the Falcons. A reminder that the Falcons are 6th worst against the pass while giving up a per game/avg of 23 DKPts to quarterbacks. With that being said, Brees should have no problem carving up this defense Thursday Night.
Mitch Trubisky, $5300, Chicago Bears
7% projected ownership
I’d almost rather eat canned cranberry sauce than recommend Trubisky for consecutive weeks yet here I am. At $5300, he affords us the salary to pay up for studs like Kamara and MT. The Lions are 8th worst against opposing quarterbacks, giving up a 22.2 avg/game. It’s not sexy but if we can get a 4x here, it’s worth it.
Ezekiel Elliott, $7400, Dallas Cowboys
69% projected ownership
Zeke looks like very nice chalk on a 3 game slate here. Dallas has the second highest implied team total with 26.5 trailing only the Saints. The Bills are 16th worst against the run which isn’t terrible but not great. They are however pretty stout against quarterbacks ranking 3rd best against the position. No other running back on the slate is seeing the kind of workhorse usage he is and his salary won’t kill you.
Kamara, Scarbrough (cheap and low owned), David Montgomery, Murray (punt)
Michael Thomas, $9100, New Orleans Saints
The lock of locks even on a 3 game slate with massive ownership. He’s on a 5 game streak of at least 25 DKPts with double digit targets since Week 5. The opposing Falcons surrender the 3rd most DKPts to opposing wide receivers with a 41.8 gm/avg. If you’ve read this article before you know I love picking on Isaiah Oliver (most receiving yards allowed in coverage and tied for 3rd most receiving TDs allowed.) Fading Thomas is like Thanksgiving without the turkey.
Julio Jones, $7300, Atlanta Falcons
Jones was a massive disappointment last week in a smash spot against the Bucs. His 16% projected ownership has me intrigued on this 3 game slate, though. We know as long as he suits up he’s good for 7-9 targets against PJ Williams (2nd best PFF graded matchup for Week 13.)
Ridley, Trequan Smith
Dawson Knox, $2900, Buffalo Bills
12% projected ownership
I think it’s okay to get cute here and pray for a touchdown. Everyone after Cooks and Hooper is sketchy. Knox is a fine dart throw here in hopes of a touchdown where the Cowboys have shown weakness. Dallas has been 8th worst in FPts surrendered to opposing tight ends.
DET TE’s, Hooper (if he goes), Cook, Jarwin