To Chalk Or Not To Chalk – Week 1

Football is finally here and that means it’s time for some daily fantasy contest. The contest that looks appealing is the Milly Maker on DraftKings. I am taking a few shots at that top prize of a million dollars and an entry to the Tournament of Champions. In this article series, I will be going over chalky plays that I think you should either play or fade, in big field tournaments. To determine what players are chalky, I will be referencing the ownership projections provided by RotoGrinders. Let’s get started with the quarterback plays.

Quarterbacks:

 

PLAY Josh Allen (BUF) vs PIT – $7,400 – The Bills have a favorable match-up against the Steelers. The Bills’ team total is 27.5 points and Josh Allen will have most, if not all of the touchdowns scored in this game. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders to the wide receiving core also helps the argument for Allen reaching the 300+ passing yard bonus points. Allen having a salary of $700 less than Mahomes is another reason why I will have a bunch of Allen lineups this weekend. 

FADE Joe Burrow (CIN) vs MIN – $5,700 – Burrow is projected to be the highest owned quarterback. This feels like a trap because Burrow had some foot issues and the offensive line did not look good at pass protection.  The only thing that is appealing is the game flow could have the Vikings up two scores early, forcing Burrow to throw. If the Bengals can move the ball downfield, it could become the Mixon show. I can’t say that I will completely fade Burrows but this week, but I will be well below the field in ownership in my 150 lineups. 

 

Running Backs:

I will not mention Austin Ekeler because of his unknown status about playing on Sunday. 

PLAY Alvin Kamara (NO) vs GB – $8,600 – Kamara is looking to be the chalkiest player this Sunday. This will not stop me from playing him. He is a playmaker and the Saints are not afraid to target him 10 or more times in a game. Kamara played 15 games last year and scored 21 times. If we take away Week 15 against the Vikings, where he scored 6 rushing touchdowns, he is still averaging more than a touchdown a game. That is insane productivity. Kamara will be seeing a lot of exposure in my lineups. 

FADE Chris Carson (SEA) @ IND – $5,900 – Carson is a tough sell for me this week. The Colts were one of the best rush defenses last year. This is another spot, where if the offensive line for the Seahawks is still having issues, I don’t see the offense getting in rhythm. I would rather play Gibson at the same price with a slightly better match-up. 

 

Wide Receivers: 

 

PLAY Davante Adams (GB) @ NO – $8,300 – The projections have Adams as the 4th most owned wide receiver. Nothing has changed from last year in the offense that is 5th in yards and 1st in points scored. There are only 3 games he didn’t score a touchdown. One of the games is where he got injured and another one was his first game back from the injury. It seems that the projections aren’t afraid of his high price tag and neither am I. 

FADE Corey Davis (NYJ) @ CAR – $4,900 – The match-up is the only thing with Corey Davis that is appealing. With a bunch of unknowns including how will Zach Wilson play, this is an easier fade for me. The team total for the Jets is 20.25 and with Davis being the “best” player on that offense, he may draw double coverage. I’m not interested in Davis when Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, Ja’Marr Chase, and Micole Hardman are cheaper options. 

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