CFB DFS Targets Week 9 Night Slate

The CFB DFS night contest on DK may have added an eighth game this week, but I am going to lay out why there really might be only a few you need to bother with. In the process, I’ll rearrange the holiday calendar, tell you if the Kansas offensive explosion is for real, and maybe even do some fantasy analysis.

As always, I post my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 8 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
[email protected]BAMA 7:00PM ET|31.5|55.5
MEM@TLSA 7:00PM ET|10|58.5
UCF@TEMP 7:00PM ET|11|62
ND@MICH 7:30PM ET|1|50
[email protected]CLEM 7:30PM ET|35|59
ASU@UCLA 7:30PM ET|3|55.5
MIZZ@UK 7:30PM ET|10|44
TTU@KU 7:00PM ET|6|64.5

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Dillon Gabriel and Kenneth Gainwell. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,700.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. Let’s get targeting!

Otis Anderson | RB | UCF $5,000

This one is a fairly straight forward injury advantage play. With starter Greg McCrae out, and Adrian Killins playing a little banged up, Anderson is set for an increase in workload Saturday night, in UCF’s lighting quick attack. In his regular change-of-pace role, where he’s usually safe for 8-10 touches (including catches), he’s had at least nine DK points in all but one game this season.

As much as people like to think this scheme is predicated on the pass, UFC still runs the ball a ton. They rank inside the top-20 in rush attempts nationally, when you exclude the triple-option service academies. Also, more often than not, they’re protecting second half leads. Taking all of that into account, I think Anderson is safe for a 15 touch floor, with considerable upside in what projects to be one of the highest scoring games of the slate.

Ta’Zhawn Henry #26 of the Texas Tech (Source: Getty Images North America)

Additionally, I’ve been talking myself into Texas Tech’s Ta’Zhawn Henry as my favorite speculative, sneaky upside play of the night. He returned last week from an injury and was effective, averaging 6.5 yards per touch. As a freshman last year, he proved he could do damage in plus matchups, when the opportunities presented themselves. And, one of those times came against this very same shitty Jayhawk defense. Even if he doesn’t go off, he’s still involved enough in a somewhat murky backfield, that he should have a double digit DK points floor, in the other highest projected scoring game Saturday evening.

Brandon Aiyuk | WR | Arizona St. $5,700

The theme with the Sun Devil offense has been pretty consistent this season in conference play. Against good defenses, they ride the struggle bus. Against the softer ones, they eat. A lot. Especially, this guy.

Brandon Aiyuk #2 (Source: kent horner/Getty Images North America) 

If I think I know which one of those that the UCLA defense is, Thanksgiving might be coming before Halloween for the first time in documented history, for Jayden Daniels and company. And, based on the Bruins allowing opponents to average 460 yards on offense per contest, I think I do know.

As good as the matchup is, the price is even better. Aiyuk has proven on more than one occasion that he is capable of dropping Gabriel Davis stat lines when given the right conditions. This, would be one of those times.

To Bama or Not to Bama

The Elephants always play a role in any slate. This week however, they’ll be without their future top-5 NFL draft pick, Tua Tagovailoa. So, does it mean all the Bama positional players are an auto fade? My answer would be yea, pretty much.

After a little time on the googler, the prospects of Mac Jones at the helm did not sound encouraging, as a downfield passer. Expecting him to come in and light up anyone in a Tua-like fashion, would be delusional anyway.

The good news for Alabama is that Vegas still projects this to be around a 45-12ish beatdown on the poor Razorback outfit. That said, this could be the best spot for guys like Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr. to do the heavy lifting when the Tide has the pill.

In conclusion, I’ll pass on their typically chalky wideouts for this week, and nudge up the ceilings a tad bit on the aforementioned running backs, in what I speculate will be closer to a run-first game plan. Besides, it’s nice to take a little breather from thinking through every single slate with the question, “do I have to stack Bama and/or Oklahoma to even compete?”

Kansas Offense

It’s alive!!! Outside of Pooka Williams Jr., this unit has been CFB DFS worthless since last season. But, that all changed last week, as the Mad Hatter unleashed new offensive coordinator, Brent Dearmon onto the Jayhawk scheme.

I covered the massive immediate improvements in the day post. The question now is: How much of that was due to the Texas defense being that bad, as opposed to the changes Dearmon implemented?

As with most things in life, the truth probably rests somewhere in the middle. For Saturday night’s purposes, I’m not buying in yet. I want to see them do it one more week against a mediocre-at-best Red Raider defense before I burn an entire CFB DFS slate on the effing Kansas Jayhawk offense.

Show me 400 plus yards of total offense, and get the four offensive scores that Vegas expects you to get, then I’ll be on full Calvin Candie alert…

Side note: tread lightly on the ND/Michigan game. It could be a monsoon in Ann Arbor.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

For reasons already discussed, it’s Jayden Daniels and I don’t think it’s close. In fact, considering Tua’s absence and the shaky weather in Ann Arbor, there is only a handful of quarterbacks that are even playable in my mind.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

Which brings us to Dillon Gabriel for UCF. Since I’m out on the Alabama stacks for this week, the Knights are the logical choice to pay top dollar on.

On paper, they have the right Vegas projection and matchup, without Clemson’s game flow risk. Also, it will be very difficult to drop that much cap space on Kenneth Gainwell, without any definitive knowledge on if/how Patrick Taylor Jr’s. return will play out in the Memphis backfield. Yep, it will be a cool October Saturday evening of Knights and Sun Devils for me.

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 9 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, check my podcast now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!

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