NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 7

Welcome to Week Seven of season seven of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week we went 2-1, hitting on our pick of the week (the Patriots) as well as one of our secondary picks (the Ravens).  Unfortunately, we didn’t foresee the Texans upsetting the Chiefs in Kansas City.  Let’s get back to 3-0 this week!  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week, we had four division matchups, two of which were one score games.  The Bengals almost came back against the rival Ravens, and the Lions Packers game went down to the final seconds.  While there were no major upsets, they weren’t exactly slam dunks either.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

• Kansas City at Denver
• Miami at Buffalo
• Minnesota at Detroit
• Houston at Indianapolis
• Philadelphia at Dallas
• New England at New York Jets

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Prime time games continue to be very entertaining this season.  Even though the Patriots easily handled the Giants on Thursday, the Giants surprisingly kept it close in the first half.  Sunday night, the Steelers jumped out to a big lead on the Chargers, but the Chargers started climbing back into what became only a one touchdown game.  Then on Monday, we got the best game that came down to the final seconds.  Prime Time Games: great for entertainment, not so much for your eliminator series.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

• Kansas City at Denver
• Philadelphia at Dallas
• New England at New York Jets

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

I saw a crazy stat during the games Sunday: road teams entering week six of the NFL season have a combined 43-34-1 record.  This 0.558 win percentage is the best since 1983, showing how abnormal this season continues to be.  That being said, we finally saw some home team pull off the upset.  The Jets beat the Cowboys in New York.  The Cardinals beat the Falcons in Arizona.  We even saw the Browns and Dolphins come very close to upsets of their own.  The home team tides might finally be turning!  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

• Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta
• Jacksonville at Cincinnati
• San Francisco at Washington

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

•  Green Bay Packers over the Oakland Raiders

The Green Bay Packers continue to win games left and right, all while barely letting Aaron Rodgers throw the ball.  Imagine as Rodgers becomes more accustomed to this offense they are only going to get better.  While the Raiders are better than many people thought they were going to be, I just think the Packers are the better team here.

 Other options I like this week:

• Buffalo Bills over the Miami Dolphins

Yes, this is a division matchup, but it is also the Miami Dolphins.  Since the Dolphins are probably going to end up 0-16 this season, we may as well take advantage in this series.

• San Francisco 49ers over the Washington Redskins

Since we are picking against the Dolphins, we may as well also pick against the team that barely beat them last week.  Even though the 49ers are on the road, they are also head and shoulders more talented than this Redskins team that is a two-point attempt away from being the worst team in the NFL.

Overall Record = 12-6

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

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Thanks for reading!