Coming up in this CFB DFS night slate preview is a special report that can only be delivered here. It is something the main stream platforms won’t tell you in order to pedal more false narratives and pander to the sheep. Ladies and gentleman, I say there are no individual targets for Saturday night. Only teams.
As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
|OSU@NEB 7:30PM ET|||||17|||||66|
|[email protected]OKST 7:00PM ET|||||4.5|||||60.5|
|[email protected]FSU 7:30PM ET|||||6.5|||||61.5|
|[email protected]UTST 7:30PM ET|||||23.5|||||70|
|STAN@ORST 7:00PM ET|||||3|||||56|
|[email protected]AUB 7:00PM ET|||||9.5|||||46.5|
|[email protected]SCAR 7:30PM ET|||||3|||||54|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Justin Fields and Chuba Hubbard. What I will do is point out that rostering the pricey pair will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,500.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. Alright, that’s enough. The CFB DFS truth shall be told!!!
Utah State Effing Offense
Alright. I know bloviate from time to time over DK’s pricing model, but this is an all-timer. The absolute misfire on the Aggie market values is the most reasonable path to cashing Saturday night.
Utah State averages 40 points per game this season, and ranks 6th in the country in yards per game, with an average north of 550. And, no. This isn’t a sample size fallacy due to one of their three game being a 62-7 win over Stoney Brook.
It’s the same backbreaking pace attack lead by future NFL draft pick, Jordan Love at quarterback. The same offense that finished last season averaging less than one point behind the nation’s best, Oklahoma.
On the flip side, a scrumptious matchup with a hapless CSU defense that ranks a saucy 106th in the country for yards allowed per game, and has given up half a hundred in points twice already this year. As far as Vegas is concerned, that trend will likely continue Saturday night.
The game odds project a high 40s to mid 20s score. Based on that and the matchup, I think it is very likely we’re looking at 5-6 offensive Aggie scores minimum. Receivers like Siaosi Mariner and Savon Scarver have an incredible spot to outperform their ludicrous price tags. Have an eye on them and any Utah State player with any legit role in the offense.
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Kansas State Offense
Similar to boxing, styles always make for the best CFB DFS fights. In Stillwater under the lights, it will be exactly that. The Wildcats defensive/ball control mindset versus Mike Gundy’s overwhelm you with offense strategy.
Which wins out? Who knows? What I do know is that there might not be a better week for the Wildcat offense to outperform their prices.
In a game that Vegas projects both teams to approach 30 points, graduate transfer James Gilbert’s likely 15-20 touches holds up nicely at his price. In Week 3, I noted the upside of Malik Knowles. You can be damn sure he’ll be sliding into my LUs for this matchup.
It isn’t to the level of Utah State, but there is definitely value here against an opponent that just tries to outscore everyone. And, with the Cowboys coming off that prime time loss and KSU having a bye last week, I feel like we have a live dog with the Wildcats Saturday night. Woof! Woof!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
The night DK contest is a small one. With just seven games to go on, it’s similar to playing an “early only” contest for the NFL. In these cases, if you aren’t in on the one or two games that turn out to be the high scoring contests that supply the most points on the board, you’re likely out of the cash line.
I’d love to suggest Oregon State’s Jake Luton, or Kansas State’s Skylar Thompson as solid bargains here. And they actually are! But, I do not believe that is what this board is about.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
This slate is a Buckeye/Aggie production. The luxury of the Utah State prices is that you are able to build lineups in a way to potentially capture almost every luscious yard and realistically collect every offensive touchdown in each game, adding tons of sensual double up touchdown advantages.
This is just common sense. No need to overthink the circumstances like Dr. Raymond Stantz…
When the CFB DFS world gives us a gift, Winston Zeddemore has the right idea–say yes! Pair up those Buckeye/Aggie stacks then set it and forget it my friends.