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Sunday Night Fight Metrics

Sunday Night Fight Metrics

  • Sunday Night Fight Metrics.  I will combine all my tools to view the Sunday Night Game. – Vegas, Defense Against the Position and My Rankings. 
  • I think understanding the landscape metrics gives players a way to get a reference forecast for final decisions.
  • Do not use players because that are on highly rated TV times (See Thursday, Sunday Night and Monday Night). Use players that make sense and might shine under the spotlight.

All in One Rankings

Welcome to the Week 1 2019 Season and Sunday Night Fight Metrics using my ALL in ONE (AIO) rankings analysis. I have gathered using meta-data processes PPR, NON-PPR, and Half PPR rankings. I placed all these rankings into the same numerical scale of 100 to 0 (best to worst). This normalization allows us to build landscape views of Teams, Positions, and Players.


Vegas Information

Sunday Night Fight Metrics Vegas information. I use consists of game point totals as well as the points spread. There is evidence that total game points does correlate with passing yards, game touchdowns, as well as QB Fantasy Points. I can currently modeling the Vegas metrics and hope to a full analysis in my 2020 textbook.

This year I will view the games in terms of high passing, mid-level, and low levels of passing. Games with high predicted Vegas total game points should be full of passing PPR goodness while low predicted Vegas total game points not so much.


Defense Against the Position

Sunday Night Fight Metrics Vegas information. Earlier this year, I published articles using the 2018 defense against the position (DAP) metrics. High DAP suggests an easy game script for that position. I use to set lineups and focus on the tougher Flex positions. Low DAP implies a tough game for that position’s players.

DAPs by Game for Week 1 2019

This metric table contains the complete DAP landscape for week 1.

The data present includes:

  • Week
  • Game Number
  • Team
  • Opponent Run Passing Defense DAPs
    • Balanced,
    • Rushing Easy,
    • Easy Pass,
    • Easy Both,
    • and Tough Both
  • Opponent Team
  • QB, RB, TE, and WR DAP Scores faced by the Team

The highs and lows faced by each team by position has been emphasized by colorization.

FYI – SF vs TB has both teams defenses rated as easy – force some of their key players into Flex or DFS lineups


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Sunday Night Fight Metrics NE vs PIT

  • The NE Team is favored at home by 6 points 
  • Total Game Points are at 51 suggesting a nice PPR high passing game
  • NE, however, fights into an above-average tougher rushing and passing PIT defense
  • NE QBs get a -0.6 DAP but the NE WRs go up into a +1.1 (seems a wash- average game suggested)
  • The TE on NE are slightly favored with a +1 TE DAP but its hard to support that position
  • NE RB gets the toughest path to PPR goodness at -3 RB DAP. 
  • PIT, however, gets a more positive passing and rushing landscape
  • The Vegas 51 total game points are dependent on a shoot-out and a back and forth game script. 
  • PIT QB, TE, and WR all get positive DAPs. (+0.9, +0.5, and 0 DAPs)
  • The RBs from PIT has a slight tough go at -0.7 DAP

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For NE passing will be the keys to victory. Assume AB does not play, Edelman and Gordon will be the main WRs scoring. They are ranked 86 and 74. I expect multiple scores in passing. 

Michel (80) and White (70) should be the main RBs with White collecting pass PPR points. Note Burkhead could steal Michel red-zone chances. I might use White only in DFS as a safer play. I think 4 TDs from NEs split equally WRs and RBs. 


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Next, PIT has to get the terrible towels out to beat NE. Big Ben ranked at 62 figures in at least 2 scores. He needs 3 to 4 for PIT to beat NE. JuJu (96) can collect 2 TDs but the other WRs do not seem to be up to scoring. 

McDonald can get a score and could be useful in DFS. I ranked him at 80 and would support players placing him in their lineups. 

Furthermore, I rank Connor at 92 for his abilities to advance the ball by rush and pass-catching. In 2018 Conner had a 3 to 1 ratio rush to pass targets, therefore, I suggest he scores via pass catching. He should be involved in the whole game. A strong play in DFS.

In conclusion, I note the game seems setup for all sorts of pass related scoring. Stack in DFS? The last team that has the ball may win. 

Good Luck

FYI see this link for my Sunday Afternoon Games

 Sunday-afternoon-game-script-metrics

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