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Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics

Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics

All in One Rankings

Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics. Welcome to the Week 1 2019 Season using my ALL in ONE (AIO) rankings analysis. I have gathered using meta-data processes PPR, NON-PPR, and Half PPR rankings. I placed all these rankings into the same numerical scale of 100 to 0 (best to worst). This normalization allows us to build landscape views of Teams, Positions, and Players.


Vegas Information

Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics. Vegas information I use consists of game point totals as well as the points spread. There is evidence that total game points does correlate with passing yards, game touchdowns, as well as QB Fantasy Points. I can currently modeling the Vegas metrics and hope to a full analysis in my 2020 textbook.

This year I will view the games in terms of high passing, mid-level, and low levels of passing. Games with high predicted Vegas total game points should be full of passing PPR goodness while low predicted Vegas total game points not so much.


Defense Against the Position

Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics. Earlier this year, I published articles using the 2018 defense against the position (DAP) metrics. High DAP suggests an easy game script for that position. I use to set lineups and focus on the tougher Flex positions. Low DAP implies a tough game for that position’s players.


DAPs by Game for Week 1 2019

This metric table contains the complete DAP landscape for week 1.

The data present includes:

  • Week
  • Game Number
  • Team
  • Opponent Run Passing Defense DAPs
    • Balanced,
    • Defenses with Easy Run,
    • Easy Pass,
    • Easy Both,
    • and Tough Both
  • Opponent Team
  • QB, RB, TE, and WR DAP Scores faced by the Team

The highs and lows faced by each team by position has been emphasized by colorization.

FYI – SF vs TB has both teams defenses rated as easy – force some of their key players into Flex or DFS lineups

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Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics

DET vs ARI

  • DET favored by 2.5 points
  • Average Passing Expected 47.5 total points
  • ARI faces a balanced defense while DET RBs get an easy rushing landscape.

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In ARI, David Johnson can score vs a -0.4 DAP. He is a 93 ranked RB. The WRs Kirk and Fitz are ranked at the mid-60s vs a -1.7 WR DAP. The QB Murray has high uncertainty which hurts the passing game. ARI should be behind and DJ hopefully can earn his metrics via pass catching.

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DET should run and run and KJ has a not shot to collect multiple TDs unless CJA is the red-zone guy. In DFS CJA could get a surprising score and activity. Golladay and Jones also should get their average as well vs -0.3 WR DAP. DET defense could be a DFS play to collect on Murray’s mistakes.


MIN vs ATL

  • The game has a predicted Average Passing at 47.5 total points
  • The Vikings are the favorite by 4 points vs ATL
  • MIN gets an easy defense to fight into.
  • MIN QB, RB, and WR are all facing easy +4 DAPs.
  • ATL is the underdog and faces a tough Rushing and Passing Defense from MIN
  • ATL best option is the RBs facing a -0.7 DAP while the QB/WR go against a -4 and -8 WR DAP tough.

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Cook at 96, Thielen and Diggs at 92 and 90 rankings seem to be solid plays in DFS. DFS stacking with Cousins? Play all even Rudolph could surprise with a score. The 4 point spread seems low to me.

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Freeman at 76 seems the best play. Julio and Ridley should be ok but don’t expect a boom game from them. Hooper has a less tough DAP to fight into and he could collect for you


BAL vs MIA

  • Low Passing Expected at 37 Total Points
  • BAL is favored by 7 over MIA
  • BAL gets an easy start tot he 2016 season facing an MIA defense that is easy in rushing and passing.
  • RBs for BAL should be the key to the BAL win but the TE and WR can collect against MIA, The game total could be higher. Note for week 2 BAL should look better than thought vs MIA
  • MIA on the flip-side faces a tough BAL defense against rushing and passing. Note the MIA TE could be a surprise (DFS tournament play?)

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Jackson could collect a few scores bypassing and rushing. Ingram figures to collect and we should see which BAL WR is the WR1? I will be watching the WR pecking order as Boykin, Brown, and Snead are mainly sitting on waiver wires.

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MIA RBs face tough -6 RB DAP. Hence their lower rankings Drake vs Ballage watch for usage. Curious to their usages under stress as MIA figures to be playing from behind. The wild-card is FITZ who can force plays (INT or TDs). Could be a pass-happy game from MIA. If so, I support Wilson and Parker at mid 45s. Watching Preston for usages.


NYJ vs BUF

  • NYJ is Favored by 3 points
  • Low total points at 40 with less passing
  • NYJ face an easy rushing defense. Bell starts out strong in week 1
  • Caution NYJ faces a tough passing defense. Caution on Darnold and TE/WRs.
  • BUF gets a nice easy passing defense and Allen gets a chance to produce for you

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Bell should be the story for the NYJ at 89 rankings vs a +2.8 RB DAP. Anderson is facing a tough situation and will look worse than normal. Buy cheap in Week 2. Curious about and watching QE and JC usages.

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BUF Allen and his WRs collect vs +8.8 WR DAP. John Brown is the play in DFS but clarity in Beasley, Foster, and Jones is lacking and I urge caution. Note they will be flattered by the week 1 matchup for your week 2 thinking. BUF and NYJ DST can both be solid plays as well.


LAR vs CAR

  • High Passing Expected at 50.5 Total Points.
  • LAR favored by 3 over CAR
  • All pass catchers in play from both teams
  • LAR gets an easy pass defense DAP of +2.8 WR and 2 TE DAP.
  • CAR fights into a balanced defense but TEs at +1.5 DAP and are the best DAP.
  • CAR passing is still average and should be on board for production at QB +0.4/ WR+0.1 WR DAPs. RBs at -0.4 DAP, however.

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Gurley fights into a tough rushing defense of -3.7 RB DAP. He needs to be pass-catching for scoring. I expect Woods, Cooks, and Kupp to collect. Kupp needs the TDs for a full play. All WRs are at +80 Rankings. Nice trifecta (DFS Stack with Goff?)

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CAR should have its way in rushing and passing. Hence the shoot-out prediction. CMC has an average game at 100 ranking. Olsen surprises and Thomas could also collect PPR points but low rankings of 56 and 14. Moore and Samuel should be in play as well at 77 and 67 rankings. Watching Hogan for further analysis for his usage.


SEA vs CIN

  • Lower Passing Expected
  • 44 total game points
  • SEA is favored by 9 points and faces an easy defense from CIN in rushing and passing
  • SEA RBs gets +6.1 RB one of the easiest RB DAPs of week 1
  • CIN faces a balanced defense
  • The CIN RBs have the best defense landscape of +1.1 RB DAPs.
  • CIN QB, TE, and WR have no advantage. TEs are facing a tough -2 TE DAP!

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Carson ranked at 94 should lead the way via +6 RB DAP. Solid Cash gameplay in DFS. Lockett at 87 also will score. The issue is if SEA is too far ahead the rushing game will be in effect. Expect Penny to show us if he has progressed from a rookie. SEA defense is a solid play as well.

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CIN RBs of Mixon and Bernard should be the show facing a +1.1 RB DAP. Note both SEA and CIN seem to be predicted to use RBs and thus the lower total game points of 44. Curious to see the Mixon vs Bernard usages early vs late in the game if CIN is behind. Boyd should come on in the second half and justify his use in your DFS and seasonal lineups.


CLE vs TEN

  • Total Game Points at 45.5 so Average Passing at best
  • CLE is favored by 5 points over TEN
  • CLE does have to fight into a tough rushing and passing defense
  • The CLE RBs battle a -5.5 RB DAP, while the TEs go against a -3 TE DAP and the WRs vs -2.3 QB DAP.
  • CLE WRs should do well ar +1.5
  • TEN the underdog faces an easier defense in rushing and passing.
  • TEN RBs get +1.5 DAP, TE at +3 DAP, QB at +1.2 DAP and WR DAP at +0.5

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OBJ should collect multiple scores vs a +1.5 WRs DAP. Landry WR should collect PPR points as well and is ranked at 71. However, Njoku has a tough -3.2 TE DAP and maybe he scores. Caution. Finally, CLE has Chubb at 95 ranked vs a -5.5 RB DAP tough. Scale back.

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TEN should use Henry a lot to slow the game down. Hence the lower team points for the game. Henry is ranked at 76 and should get a score. Curious as to what Lewis does. I will watch him for usages.

Walker the TE also moves the chains at 75 ranking vs a +3.1. Walker is a solid DFS tournament play. Corey Davis at 67 also merits a play vs a +0.5 WR DAP. Interesting to see Humphries and Brown play and their usages.


DAL vs NYG

  • Total Game Points at 45 predicting an average passing based games
  • DAL is favored by 7 points and should dominate
  • The Cowboys face an easy rushing defense at +1.9 RB DAP. TE also has a nice TE DAP of +1.2
  • DAL QB WRs will have some resistance at 0 and -1.4 DAPs
  • NYG faces a tough tough DAL defense at rushing and passing
  • NYG RBs vs -1.1 RB DAP and the QB/WR tough at -1.4 and -4.8 DAPs
  • NYG TEs have the best chance for a passing score vs +1.7 TE DAP

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Elliot (66 ranking injury concern) faces the easy +1.9 RB DAP given by the NYG defense. He should do well but could be on a snap count. We might see Pollard more than usual.

Is TE Witten (18 ranking) back? He gets a softball +1.2 TE DAP and could score given the tougher -1.4 WR DAP. Elliot slows the game down and thus the lower passing expected. The tandem of Gallup (60)  and Cooper (88)  get their chances vs a -1.4 WR DAP but DAL may not need them in the latter part of the game.

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NYG get a tough week 1 start from the DAL defense. Barkley (100) will struggle vs a -1.1 RB DAP but still collect his due. Looking forward to Engram as he can score vs a +1.7 TE DAP and is a good DFS play.

Shepard needs to start strong with Tate out and is ranked 69 vs a tough -4.8 WR DAP. Caution on all NYG WRs. This game goes through Barkley and Engram. If NYG is behind and they switch to pass-happy time, thus seals their fate.


LAC vs IND

  • Low to average passing at 44.5 total game points predicted
  • LAC favored by 6.5 points vs the IND
  • The Chargers (LAC) get a balanced defense to play into at home.
  • LAC TE gets a +3.8 DAP (star of passing plays) while the RBs get an average defense landscape. LAC QB and his WR do have a tougher landscape at -1 and -7 DAP
  • IND gets an easy rushing defense to face at +2.4
  • IND passing is expected to be lower vs a -2.2 QB DAP, -0.9 TE and -5.5 WR DAP

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Rivers collect using Ekeler (70) and Henry (87). Henry a cash game TE. Ekeler could take off and boom this game. Jackson the RB can collect in the red-zone as well.

Maybe a Rivers Ekeler and Henry Stack in DFS? Allen ranked at 91 should fight for PPR points vs a -7 WR DAP as can M Will. Caution for cash games and gambles for tournaments.

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The game seems to set up for Mack (75) vs a +2.4 RB DAP. However, the IND dropping behind will hurt Mack and help Hines (44). Caution. Brissett is ranked low at 28 vs a -2.2 QB DAP and Hilton (79) vs -7 WR DAP.

The game script could get to IND pass-happy time. That forces the passing game. Hilton can collect some PPR points. The TEs also would seem to be in play as well. Ebron and Doyle are ranked at 66 and 55 vs a-0.9 TE DAP. The TE might have an advantage vs the WRs.


KC vs JAX

  • KC is favored by 4 points vs Jax
  • The game script is for high passing for a nice 52 total game points (great for PPR)
  • KC, however, fights into a tough rushing and passing JAX defense.
  • The KC RBs face a -4 RB DAP and the WRs face a -8 WR DAP with the -2 QB DAP.
  •  KC does get a nice -0.2 TE DAP to get Mahomes an outlet for passing.
  • JAX likes to run to set up fewer passes. They face an easy KC defense for both rushing and passing.
  • JAX QB vs +3.5 QB DAP and WRs getting a +2.3 DAP suggest above-average JAX pass activity. The JAX RBs also get a sweet +5.5 RN DAP as well as the TEs at a +3.8 TE DAP. JAX can upset in this landscape.

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KC needs to step up to get the tough JAX defense off their game! Mahomes is the top QB this week but he has to fight in JAX. Faces a tough -2 QB DAP. Expect to score regardless but maybe not a boom game. The RBs vs a -4 RB DAP along with an RBBC seems to limit McCoy and Williams (ranked 84 and 58). Interested to see Darwin T and his role?

The KC WRs have the class to fight into a -8 WR DAP but it does not seem like a breakout game for Hill or Watkins (99 and 63). Kelce should be the game-winner for KC and score 1 to 2 times. He fights a -0.2 TE DAP.

The game could be close and that is good for Hill and Kelce and not so much for the RBs. Caution in DFS.

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JAX gets to pick how to attack KC. The KC defense seems easy.  Foles can pass but is more of a game manager and will be using RB Fournette (93) to score points. That might lower the KC time on offense for a JAX advantage. Foles has been getting Dede W chemistry and Dede at 78 should get his share of PPR and maybe a score.

This game tests the JAX defense early and I am interested in the results. DFS stacking could be Foles with Dede and choice of another WR but not in a cash game. Fournette can help JAX upset the KC team. Vegas says shoot-out and PPR players wish for that as well.


PHI vs WAS

  • PHI is favored by 10 points and the game is expected to have average passing from 46 total points.
  • PHI faces a balanced defense with an easy WR DAP of 1.9 and a QB DAP of +0.6. Passing favored. The PHI TEs will face a tough day against a -1.9 TE DAP, however.
  • The PHI RBs get a league-average defense of -0.2 RB DAPs. If PHI gets ahead they might collect more PPR points than expected.
  • WAS also gets a break going into a PHI defense that is kind to QB and WRs (+1.5 and +6 DAPs). The game can have more passing than thought. However, the TEs will have a tough day vs -2.8 TE DAP. A mixed bag for passing as WAS uses it TEs heavily.
  • WAS RB gets an average RB DAP of -0.2 and could surprise.

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Wentz at 85 ranking gets a +0.6 and that suggests a slightly above average day as his WRs Jeffrey 78 and Jackson at 65 fight into an easy +1.9 WR DAP. They can score 2 to 3 times. Watch for JJ for future acquisition later in the season! Does Aghlor have a role?

The RBs Sanders 64 and Howard at 60 should keep the WAS defense on its toes. They can collect but as RBBC the RB PPR pie is going to be sliced 2 ways. They can do better if the game gets out of hand and PHI rushes to manage the game.

The strength of PHI was the TEs last year. Ertz and Goedert at 94 and 40 will have to earn their keep vs a tough -1.9 TE DAP!. They could miss out on the passing bonanza.

Wentz stack with Jeffery and Jackson in DFS?

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Keenum ranked at 12 is not well supported as the WAS is thought to be at the league bottom. He goes up into a nice +1.5 QB DAP and can surprise. DFS gamble with a stack?

The WAS WRs are a collection of confusion. It is unclear the WR1 etc pecking order. Watch for this information. Richardson should be the WR1 but ranked at 35 and Quinn is the slot PPR guy at 34. They do inherit a nice easy defense landscape of +6.

Guice 57 gets to show his form vs an average RB DAP of -0.1. No excuses for him. Watch for his role vs Peterson 47? Is this an RBBC? Assume Thompson 42 will collect passes and he actually can get more traction if the PHI team goes off on them.

Reed 45 if he plays gets another chance to get in injury trouble as PHI is tough on TEs at -2.8 TE DAP. Concerns for his health. Davis could inherit a nice role later in the season

DFS stack Keenum Thompson and Richardson? gamble!


TB vs SF

  • TB is favored at home vs SF by 1 point. Toss-up.
  • The total game points predicted to be at  50 and that suggests number a high passing game
  • The high passing and points are due to the level of the defenses. Both defenses are easy thus the best passing team wins. It could be the last team with possession wins. Expect a shoot-out
  • TB faces an easy RB and WR Defense DAPs of +1.9 and +3.4. The TB TE faces the toughest DAP of -2.7
  • SF gets a great QB, RB, TE, and WR defensive landscapes. They should all feast.

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Winston ranked at 82 passes and collect nice points for your team. He could slip in a rushing TD as well. He connects to Evans and Godwin ranked at 97 and 87. Strong plays vs a +3.4 WR DAP.  Howard the TE may not get a fair share of the passing vs a -2.7 TE DAP. Use him but know he will have better days ahead.

The RBBC from TB seems to be a mix of Barber 52 with others Jones/Ogunbowale etc. I did not rank Ogunbowale this week as he may be the RB 3. He could move over Jones as a 3rd down pass catcher. Watch list for sure. Barber should get the majority of rushing but the situation is not clear. Some RB should do well vs a +1.9 RB DAP.

DFS Stack in cash? Winston with Evans and Godwin?

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Jimmy G gets a chance to flash his talent in an overly favorable away game. He is at 57 vs a +3 QB DAP. I may have been tougher on him because of the uncertainty around him. I expect we will get a clear picture for the following weeks if our drafts of him were a good idea!

Jimmy G’s WRs together get a nice easy landscape of +4.4 WR DAP. The issue is the lack of full clarity of the SF pecking order. I have Pettis 70 > Goodwin 50 > Samuel 43. Its seems that all could score and thus hard to pick a player for DFS. Pettis for cash and Goodwin/Samuel for tournaments.

Kittle was the amazing TE from 2018. He got a large amount of yardage after the catch. He faces a nice +1.7 TE DAP and should collect PPR points and score.

The rushing side for SF also is an easy trip for the RBBC Coleman and Brieda (Ranked at 73 and 64) vs a +2.9 RB DAP. Hard to think they collect a lot of PPR points if the passing is working and TB is keeping up. Watch the usages.

DFS Stack Jimmy G Kittle and Pettis?

Good Luck in Week 1 I will be doing the Sunday Night and Monday Games in other articles coming Sunday and Monday morning.

Week 1 Sunday Afternoon Game Script Metrics

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