PGA DFS John Deere Classic Preview

If you need some PGA DFS before diving head first into football research, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course, there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the John Deere Classic (JDC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: TPC Deere Run  Silvis, IL  Par 71  Yardage 7,257

The TOUR completes the Midwest leg this week in Silvis, Illinois with its annual precursor to the Open Championship. Unlike the previous two weeks, TPC Deere Run has been a mainstay on the PGA calendar, playing host every year to the JDC since 2001.

Like the last two events, the JDC has always played as one of the easiest tournaments on tour, where the winner typically will need to shoot around 20 under par to be in the mix. Even with plenty of course history to draw from, player appearances are very inconsistent year over year due to the pending Open Championship the following week. With most of the top players in the world competing in the Scottish Open this week to sharpen their links game, it will be another relatively shallow field that is wipe open for the taking.

That said, it would be no surprise for the newly turned pro batch of rookies to continue their strong play in Silvis. It also presents a splendid opportunity for fringe players to gobble up some much-needed cheap FedEx points late in the season. Here are the past five winners and their scores:

2018	Michael Kim	-27
2017	Bryson DeChambeau	-18
2016	Ryan Moore	-22
2015	Jordan Spieth	-20
2014	Brian Harman	-22

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Ball Striking (BS)
2. Strokes gained: Approach-the-green (SG: A)

Emphasizing these two stats the last couple months has been very helpful. Especially in tournaments where piling up birdies is a must, these two stats together reflect how consistently a player is putting himself in position to do just that.

Going back to May, this table has identified guys like Nate Lashley, Hank Lebioda, and Sepp Straka as strong performers week to week. Accordingly, all their prices have seen substantial increases from the mid 6k range over that time.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	BS	SG: A
Joaquin Niemann	10200	27	27	27
Sepp Straka	7300	30.5	20	41
Lucas Glover	9800	31	25	37
Hank Lebioda	7100	34.5	23	46
Troy Merritt	7500	35.5	19	52
Nate Lashley	8500	37	55	19
Talor Gooch	7700	40.5	64	17
Ryan Palmer	8600	42.5	57	28
Sam Ryder	7500	42.5	40	45
Cameron Tringale	7700	46	61	31
Ryan Moore	9200	48.5	72	25
Alex Prugh	6700	50	6	94
Sungjae Im	9700	52	22	82
Joel Dahmen	8400	54.5	37	72
Jason Dufner	8100	56	28	84
Adam Schenk	6800	56	52	60
Charles Howell III	9500	57.5	8	107
Russell Henley	7100	57.5	46	69
Kyle Stanley	8800	60	62	58
Nick Watney	8000	62.5	34	91
Josh Teater	6700	62.5	81	44
Adam Svensson	6700	62.5	96	29
Shawn Stefani	7200	64.5	82	47
Jhonattan Vegas	7400	66	33	99
Dylan Frittelli	7600	69	72	66
Kevin Tway	8900	70.5	74	67
Martin Laird	8200	70.5	35	106
Trey Mullinax	6800	73	86	60
Roberto Castro	6700	76.5	117	36
Carlos Ortiz	7200	77	26	128
Andrew Landry	7100	78.5	70	87
Cameron Davis	6700	78.5	77	80
Matt Every	6900	79.5	66	93
Bud Cauley	8700	80.5	94	67
Bronson Burgoon	7800	86	43	129
Danny Lee	7600	86.5	114	59
Adam Long	7000	88.5	87	90
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7000	91.5	74	109
Brice Garnett	7200	92	30	154
Brian Stuard	7400	94	133	55
Chase Wright	6400	95	44	146
Johnson Wagner	7200	98	69	127
Cameron Champ	7600	99.5	37	162
Ryan Armour	7300	100.5	79	122
Tom Hoge	6600	101.5	162	41
Kramer Hickok	6900	102	55	149
Daniel Berger	9300	102.5	85	120
Vaughn Taylor	7700	102.5	130	75
Anders Albertson	6300	102.5	124	81
Harold Varner III	7400	103.5	90	117
Scott Stallings	7000	103.5	151	56
J.T. Poston	7800	106	138	74
Sebastián Muñoz	6800	107	96	118
Jim Knous	6500	107	123	91
Tyler Duncan	6600	107.5	59	156
John Senden	6200	109.5	115	104
Peter Malnati	7900	112.5	185	40
Scott Brown	8300	113	107	119
Zach Johnson	9600	113.5	176	51
Roger Sloan	7100	114.5	128	101
Michael Thompson	7000	115.5	106	125
Fabián Gómez	6700	117.5	68	167
Hunter Mahan	6100	118	46	190
Austin Cook	7300	118.5	99	138
Wes Roach	6800	118.5	80	157
Brandon Harkins	6600	122.5	119	126
David Hearn	6900	124	115	133
Stewart Cink	6600	124.5	104	145
Robert Streb	6900	126.5	148	105
Pat Perez	7500	130	160	100
Sam Burns	9100	131	110	152
Nick Taylor	7400	131	132	130
Jim Herman	6000	133	108	158
Ben Silverman	6500	137.5	111	164
Mackenzie Hughes	7900	139	162	116
Denny McCarthy	7500	140	102	178
Sam Saunders	6500	140	168	112
Seth Reeves	6100	140	82	198
Matt Jones	7100	141	113	169
Alex Cejka	6500	141	179	103
Joey Garber	7300	144.5	105	184
Peter Uihlein	6900	145.5	155	136
J.J. Henry	6200	147.5	142	153
Richy Werenski	6400	148.5	150	147
Wyndham Clark	9000	149	109	189
Roberto Díaz	6800	149	127	171
John Chin	6100	149	102	196
Beau Hossler	7300	152	111	193
Stephan Jaeger	6800	154	169	139
Jonathan Byrd	7100	154.5	188	121
Brian Harman	9400	157	141	173
Ted Potter, Jr.	6600	159	170	148
Chris Thompson	6200	159	175	143
Brady Schnell	6100	159.5	158	161
Whee Kim	6300	161	178	144
Ryan Blaum	6600	165	171	159
Kyle Jones	6000	166	144	188
Kelly Kraft	6300	166.5	193	140
Ollie Schniederjans	6600	167	167	167
Dominic Bozzelli	6700	168	144	192
Freddie Jacobson	6000	169	196	142
Ben Crane	6500	171	176	166
Satoshi Kodaira	6300	171.5	166	177
Bill Haas	6900	172	184	160
Chris Stroud	6600	173	196	150
Anirban Lahiri	6400	177.5	190	165
Scott Langley	6400	179.5	174	185
José de Jesús Rodríguez	6200	183	187	179
Cody Gribble	6300	186.5	193	180
Curtis Luck	6700	190	186	194
Michael Kim	6400	190.5	199	182
Martin Trainer	6000	190.5	182	199
Martin Piller	6500	195	193	197
Seamus Power	6800	196.5	198	195
Viktor Hovland	10900	0	0	0
Collin Morikawa	10700	0	0	0
Matthew Wolff	10500	0	0	0
Doc Redman	7200	0	0	0
Andres Romero	7000	0	0	0
Luke Donald	7000	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	6900	0	0	0
D.J. Trahan	6500	0	0	0
Justin Suh	6500	0	0	0
Chad Campbell	6500	0	0	0
John Catlin	6500	0	0	0
Sang-Moon Bae	6400	0	0	0
David Lingmerth	6400	0	0	0
Arjun Atwal	6400	0	0	0
Brendon Todd	6400	0	0	0
Robert Garrigus	6300	0	0	0
Derek Fathauer	6300	0	0	0
Julian Etulain	6300	0	0	0
Tyrone Van Aswegen	6300	0	0	0
Tom Lovelady	6200	0	0	0
Boo Weekley	6200	0	0	0
Austin Connelly	6200	0	0	0
Billy Hurley	6200	0	0	0
George McNeill	6200	0	0	0
Smylie Kaufman	6200	0	0	0
Parker McLachlin	6100	0	0	0
Ricky Barnes	6100	0	0	0
Will Claxton	6100	0	0	0
Daniel Chopra	6100	0	0	0
Kris Blanks	6100	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6100	0	0	0
Austen Truslow	6100	0	0	0
Tim Herron	6000	0	0	0
Chad Collins	6000	0	0	0
Ryan Vermeer	6000	0	0	0
Brian Davis	6000	0	0	0
Darin Fisher	6000	0	0	0
Ho Sung Choi	6000	0	0	0
Dicky Pride	6000	0	0	0
Chris Couch	6000	0	0	0
Stephen Allan	6000	0	0	0
Dylan Meyer	6000	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 8.4k–20 players)

New venues must really bother Ryan Moore. What turned out to be two consecutive birdiethons for the field, and looked like a great opportunity for a vet in solid form to make a late season push, did not pan out for Moore, who flamed out with missed weekends in both.

Much like the Travelers Championship from a few weeks ago, the UNLV alum is a regular at the JDC. And, he almost always keeps hotel reservations booked through Sundays.

In 10 career JDC appearances, Moore has just one missed cut, three top-10s, including a win in 2016. I think he responds well to the friendly confines, and bounces back big in Silivis.

Prices have gotten really stiff on the hot rookie hands for good reason, but I think the safest one in this range for a high floor is still Joaquin Niemann. If I’m investing five figures, the inevitable inconsistency of new tour players is something to consider. Both Niemann and, especially Moore, have more experience with the highs and lows of week to week play on the PGA Tour.

Sweet Spot (8.3k to 7k–44 players)

I discussed Cameron Tringale’s bounce back season heading into last week, and he continued his stellar play with a modest T-42 finish. His price point has not budged, which makes him remain a favorite building block of mine this week.

Another couple of players that will help create cap room for Moore are Johnson Wagner and Carlos Ortiz. Wagner just took advantage of the shallow 3M Open field with a T-23 finish, and has legit success at the JDC, having made four of his last five weekends including three top-10s.

After earning his way back to the PGA Tour via the Korn Ferry circuit, Ortiz is now quietly enjoying a career best season with a T-5 last week, his third top-10 of the season. Ball striking led the way for the Mexico native in Minnesota where he ranked seventh in strokes gained: tee-to-green for the week. He also now sits ranked an impressive 26th in ball striking for the year. I like Ortiz to keep it rolling at the JDC, where he will be looking to cash his first check in what will be his third appearance.

Sneaky Low % Owned (Below 7k ~93 players)

It wouldn’t be the JDC without me mentioning Dylan Meyer. My first ever DFS golf write-up a few years ago on a platform that no longer exists included a missive on the former Illinois All-American, when he was making his PGA debut at the 2017 JDC, as an amateur.

The glasses wearing, visor rocking savage went on to miss the cut, and has had moderate success in PGA events since, making six weekends in 10 events. This season on the Korn Ferry tour, Meyer has been downright awful, but that might be all the more reason to take a shot with him this week in what will be a true “home” game.

For the more risk averse approach that still presents reasonable upside, Justin Suh and D.J. Trahan are my favorites this week. I made the case for newly turned pro Suh to join his fellow rookies, and finally crack a weekend in Minnesota last week. He came through with a T-58 finish, and I think he is sick of seeing all his boys notch top-10s and get wins under their belts. He is my favorite pick in this range as a sneaky contender.

Trahan does not have enough rounds recorded to show up in the stats, but when he did earlier in the year, his ball striking rankings were phenomenal. He needs to take advantage of every start, as he attempts to regain status on the PGA Tour. This is the right field for him to do that.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Ryan Moore–See above.
• Nate Lashley–Understandlable letdown after his amazing win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
• Doc Redman–Same concept as Lashley, who he finished sole runner up to in Detroit.
• Sepp Straka–Been one of my favorites all season. Missed back to back weekends just once since early 2019.
• Jhonattan Vegas–Has not cashed a check in three starts going back to May. Good ball striker. Has not played here in four years, but is three out of four in cuts made in his career here. Seems like the perfect spot for a random Vegas top-10.

Best Course History Plays

• Moore-See above.
• Charles Howell–Ten of 11 JDC cuts made, seven top-25s, two top 10s.
• Zach Johnson–Not sure what to do with him this week at his price. But if ZJ is ever going to get his season going it would be here where has cashed 11 straight checks, including seven top-5s, with a 2012 win.
• Chad Campbell–Super random course history player of the week. Campbell has made the cut in all 11 career JDC appearances. Over his 16 year stretch playing here, he’s collected seven top-25s, and tied his JDC best finish last year with a T-7. Don’t try to make sense of it. Just know it.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Moore
2. Niemann
3. Tringale

Good luck in Illinois! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast! We are back next week for our third episode to talk the final major of the season.