If you need PGA DFS to pass the time before the reality television NBA off-season kicks off, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.
In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.
One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course, there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (RMC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.
Course: Detroit Golf Club Detroit, MI Par 72 Yardage 7,334
The tour heads to the Midwest over the next two weeks at brand new venues for the 2019 schedule change. First stop, the Detroit Golf Club right downtown in the Motor City.
Ahhh yes, Detroit. I once lived just outside this city in the suburb of Royal Oak. Like most things in life, I can sum Detroit up in one movie reference.
You know how Philadelphia fully embraced Rocky as a symbol that their city identifies with, by actually putting up a statue? Makes sense. I mean no one would argue that the values expressed in the cinematic classic are overwhelmingly positive, and ones that people of an entire city should and would celebrate.
Well, Detroit has their own Rocky… Robocop. You know, the movie that depicts a futuristic Detroit as a giant shit hole that is so incompetent it is privatizing law enforcement, having a half cyborg officer lead the way.
That’s right. The long-awaited Robocop statue is slated for erection at the Michigan Science Center. The good news: at least it’s not outside?
But I guess you could say that is par for the course considering they are roughly $9 billion in debt, rocking $5 billion in pension obligations on their balance sheet. #leadership #priorities
Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. With fast-paced games like Rapid Fire and Either/Or, it’s never been easier to play fantasy and win. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game
Keys to Success
My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:
- Ball Striking (BS)
- Strokes gained: Approach-the-green (SG: A)
As ridiculous as that is, strictly as a movie, Robocop still kicks major ass. Which is why I’ll be weaving in as many references to it throughout my analysis as possible. And in all seriousness, I do hope the city can grow and very much enjoyed my time living in that area. But a Robocop statue!? Really?
Certainly, adding a PGA Tour event can’t hurt any progress. Similar to my comments before the Byron Nelson, without much history and course data out there to rely on, ball striking makes the most sense as the metric to fall back on.
It’s the best reflection of how players are performing tee-to-green at any course type, and who is/isn’t consistently giving themselves scoring opportunities. Putting will ultimately be the main separator, but I don’t typically get in the business of trying to predict who will be burning edges, or rolling everything in center cup.
Hell, in less than 24 hours last week, Chez Reavie himself went from a putting savant to someone who couldn’t buy a 10-15 footer to save his life. Or even for a dollar…
When a catch phrase from a preposterous fictional game show host in your comic book movie becomes 90s pop culture folklore, you’re doing something right. Anyway, to help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website.
It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:
|Name||Salary||Composite Rank||BS||SG: A|
|Byeong Hun An||7900||63||77||49|
|Charles Howell III||7800||63||8||118|
|Harold Varner III||7400||102.5||75||130|
|Si Woo Kim||7400||155||147||163|
|Ted Potter, Jr.||6000||171||183||159|
|José de Jesús Rodríguez||6200||187.5||192||183|
*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify
Price Range Targets
Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 8.4k–16 players)
Guys like Reavie and Ryan Moore would normally help boost your average price remaining per player up. But this week, a very thin field has vaulted some of last week’s bargains up to stiffer prices than we are used to seeing by their names. One of those guys that is my favorite for the week, is the uber talented Joaquin Niemann.
Storming out of the gates last season with four top-10s in his first eight professional starts, the Chilean prodigy’s unsustainable pace caught up with him. After grinding through 2019 with mostly missed cuts or finishes outside the top-35, the 20 year-old has returned to form.
His last four starts have finished T-31 or higher, capped off with a season best T-5 at last week’s Travelers Championship. A depleted field should help him continue his hot streak.
Since he’ll likely be covered in chalk from the DFS community, Patrick Reed is my favorite pivot for this range. He should be very motivated to earn some FedEx points here if he wants any chance of qualifying for the Tour Championship, an event he’s made every year since 2014.
Sweet Spot (8.3k to 7k–49 players)
Speaking of playing the villain role like Reed, Clarence Boddicker is in the discussion for most underrated movie bad guy of all-time. I mean, what kind of sick mother fucker pulls a savage move like this and gets away with it…
Wow. So many things to unpack in that exchange. I just need to move on. Jason Kokrak has been talked about in this space several times in 2019.
I am going to pretend last week’s first missed cut of the year was just a blip on the radar of what has been a splendid career best season.
Similar to Kokrak, Corey Conners is having a break through season of his own, thanks to elite ball striking. Dissimilar to Kokrak, Conners continues to be disrespected by the DK pricing model.
Regardless, both men are on the fringes of the top-30 in FedEx standings. With time running to solidify their first career Tour Championship appearance, they should be highly encouraged to play well this week.
Sneaky Low % Owned (Below 7k ~87 players)
As previously stated, I continue to target ball strikers, especially in events without any course history. In that light, Sepp Straka and Hank Lebioda have consistently provided solid week to week value at dirt cheap prices.
Along with them, fellow ball striker Sam Ryder maintained a solid sophomore campaign with a T-51 last week. I like him to cash his 13th check in what will be his 18th start of the season, and have a slightly increased ceiling in a favorable field.
Same goes for newly turned pro Justin Suh. He hasn’t made a weekend in his three tour starts this season. That should make him less popular with the sharps than fellow newcomer Chip McDaniel, who has made four of five cuts this year, including a T-5 in the Puerto Rico event.
Getting really filthy, Stewart Cink is my favorite contrarian play for this week. After being off since April working through some back issues, the tour veteran has been helping promote the event all week in Detroit. Some much needed rest, and a 76 percent career cut rate is enough for me to throw a dart at Cink.
Best Bounce Back Candidates
- Jason Kokrak–Discussed above.
- Byeong Hun An–Should be a perfect spot for him to notch a top-25, which would tie his single season best of seven set last year.
- Luke List–Missed his last two weekends at the Memorial and US Open. A guy like Kokrak that is still looking for the elusive break through win on tour. This would be the ideal field to do it.
Best Course History Plays
Nothing to cover here. I guess I’ll just drop in my message for Corey Conners for this week…
Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.
These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:
To reaffirm Clarence Boddicker’s bad assery, I’ll end with a great scene from Robocop where what happens to poor Bob Morton perfectly illustrates the impact on my DFS week when any of my core players miss the cut…