PGA DFS Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

If you need PGA DFS to pass the time before the reality television NBA off-season kicks off, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course, there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (RMC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Detroit Golf Club  Detroit, MI  Par 72  Yardage 7,334

The tour heads to the Midwest over the next two weeks at brand new venues for the 2019 schedule change. First stop, the Detroit Golf Club right downtown in the Motor City.

Ahhh yes, Detroit. I once lived just outside this city in the suburb of Royal Oak. Like most things in life, I can sum Detroit up in one movie reference.

You know how Philadelphia fully embraced Rocky as a symbol that their city identifies with, by actually putting up a statue? Makes sense. I mean no one would argue that the values expressed in the cinematic classic are overwhelmingly positive, and ones that people of an entire city should and would celebrate.

Well, Detroit has their own Rocky… Robocop. You know, the movie that depicts a futuristic Detroit as a giant shit hole that is so incompetent it is privatizing law enforcement, having a half cyborg officer lead the way.

That’s right. The long-awaited Robocop statue is slated for erection at the Michigan Science Center. The good news: at least it’s not outside?

But I guess you could say that is par for the course considering they are roughly $9 billion in debt, rocking $5 billion in pension obligations on their balance sheet. #leadership #priorities

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Ball Striking (BS)
2. Strokes gained: Approach-the-green (SG: A)

As ridiculous as that is, strictly as a movie, Robocop still kicks major ass. Which is why I’ll be weaving in as many references to it throughout my analysis as possible. And in all seriousness, I do hope the city can grow and very much enjoyed my time living in that area. But a Robocop statue!? Really?

Certainly, adding a PGA Tour event can’t hurt any progress. Similar to my comments before the Byron Nelson, without much history and course data out there to rely on, ball striking makes the most sense as the metric to fall back on.

It’s the best reflection of how players are performing tee-to-green at any course type, and who is/isn’t consistently giving themselves scoring opportunities. Putting will ultimately be the main separator, but I don’t typically get in the business of trying to predict who will be burning edges, or rolling everything in center cup.

Hell, in less than 24 hours last week, Chez Reavie himself went from a putting savant to someone who couldn’t buy a 10-15 footer to save his life. Or even for a dollar…

When a catch phrase from a preposterous fictional game show host in your comic book movie becomes 90s pop culture folklore, you’re doing something right. Anyway, to help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website.

It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	BS	SG: A
Hideki Matsuyama	10200	9	14	4
Gary Woodland	10900	10	1	19
Corey Conners	7300	11.5	4	19
Jason Kokrak	8300	17	22	12
Chez Reavie	9700	22	26	18
Kevin Streelman	8600	26	20	32
Dustin Johnson	12000	27	39	15
Troy Merritt	7000	30	18	42
Sepp Straka	6900	36.5	44	29
Rickie Fowler	11200	37	31	43
Ryan Moore	9500	44	65	23
Hank Lebioda	6900	44	28	60
Joaquin Niemann	8900	50.5	66	35
Alex Prugh	7000	53	6	100
Adam Schenk	6600	54.5	58	51
Sung Kang	7600	55	54	56
Sam Ryder	6600	55	56	54
Nick Watney	7600	57.5	40	75
Sungjae Im	8800	58.5	33	84
Keith Mitchell	7800	59	29	89
J.J. Spaun	7400	62	61	63
Trey Mullinax	6900	62	79	45
Byeong Hun An	7900	63	77	49
Charles Howell III	7800	63	8	118
Jason Dufner	8000	64	47	81
Kevin Tway	8100	66	66	66
Russell Henley	7400	66	58	74
Cameron Tringale	7000	66.5	94	39
Cameron Davis	6500	67	64	70
Billy Horschel	9000	72.5	81	64
Aaron Wise	8200	74.5	16	133
Shawn Stefani	6500	75	113	37
Kyle Stanley	7700	76	72	80
J.B. Holmes	7300	76	91	61
Charley Hoffman	7800	80	133	27
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7900	81	68	94
Josh Teater	6400	81	101	61
Bud Cauley	7500	81.5	104	59
Kevin Kisner	9100	84	81	87
Bubba Watson	8700	85	41	129
Adam Svensson	6300	86.5	123	50
Dylan Frittelli	7100	88	99	77
Andrew Landry	6800	91	84	98
Brendan Steele	7200	92	9	175
Brian Stuard	7100	95.5	133	58
Vaughn Taylor	7600	97.5	130	65
Cameron Champ	6800	97.5	35	160
Max Homa	7300	98	152	44
Carlos Ortiz	6400	98.5	45	152
Luke List	7700	99.5	98	101
Chesson Hadley	7200	99.5	144	55
Adam Long	6900	99.5	89	110
Jim Knous	6500	101	111	91
Roberto Castro	6700	102	153	51
Harold Varner III	7400	102.5	75	130
Scott Stallings	6700	103	159	47
Danny Lee	7300	103.5	124	83
Sebastián Muñoz	7000	103.5	87	120
Martin Laird	7500	104	69	139
Kramer Hickok	6500	105	53	157
Anders Albertson	6200	105	131	79
Michael Thompson	7300	106	109	103
Rory Sabbatini	8500	107.5	106	109
Ben Silverman	6600	107.5	100	115
Tyler Duncan	6600	107.5	60	155
Tom Hoge	6400	108	168	48
Brice Garnett	6200	109	41	177
J.T. Poston	6900	110.5	135	86
Ryan Armour	6900	111	86	136
Brandon Harkins	6400	114	114	114
Chase Wright	6100	114	57	171
Peter Malnati	7500	115.5	193	38
Austin Cook	7200	116.5	96	137
Hunter Mahan	6300	120	48	192
Bronson Burgoon	6700	120.5	75	166
Jonas Blixt	6800	124	140	108
Roger Sloan	6400	124.5	125	124
Scott Brown	6700	125	110	140
Jimmy Walker	7700	125.5	158	93
Jim Herman	6000	125.5	101	150
Matt Jones	7000	127.5	91	164
Fabián Gómez	6400	128.5	71	186
Harris English	6800	131.5	81	182
Cameron Smith	7400	141	185	97
Wes Roach	6500	142.5	95	190
Whee Kim	6100	142.5	178	107
Alex Cejka	6100	143	184	102
Sam Saunders	6600	143.5	171	116
John Chin	6100	144	91	197
Patrick Reed	9300	145	155	135
Robert Streb	6800	145.5	160	131
Peter Uihlein	7100	146	143	149
Sam Burns	7100	146	127	165
Roberto Díaz	7200	146.5	131	162
Denny McCarthy	6500	148	116	180
Patton Kizzire	6300	148.5	156	141
Seth Reeves	6200	149	96	202
Nick Taylor	7000	151.5	161	142
Mackenzie Hughes	7600	153	168	138
Richy Werenski	6200	154	161	147
J.J. Henry	6100	154	157	151
Brandt Snedeker	9900	154.5	182	127
Si Woo Kim	7400	155	147	163
Chris Thompson	6100	155	164	146
Freddie Jacobson	6500	156	200	112
Brady Schnell	6300	159	149	169
Wyndham Clark	7100	159.5	125	194
Beau Hossler	7200	160.5	122	199
Brian Gay	6700	164.5	144	185
Sangmoon Bae	6600	165.5	150	181
Ollie Schniederjans	6800	168	163	173
Ryan Blaum	6800	168	175	161
Chris Stroud	6500	170	197	143
Brian Harman	8000	170.5	154	187
Ted Potter, Jr.	6000	171	183	159
Stephan Jaeger	7100	171.5	176	167
Ernie Els	6200	172.5	177	168
Julián Etulain	6000	173	194	152
Satoshi Kodaira	6300	174.5	173	176
Kelly Kraft	6300	174.5	195	154
Kyle Jones	6200	182.5	172	193
Scott Langley	6600	184	180	188
Anirban Lahiri	6400	184.5	199	170
José de Jesús Rodríguez	6200	187.5	192	183
Joey Garber	6300	189.5	178	201
Rod Pampling	6000	190	191	189
Michael Kim	6000	190.5	203	178
Cody Gribble	6700	191	198	184
Martin Trainer	6200	195	187	203
Seamus Power	6600	198	196	200
Curtis Luck	6400	200	202	198
Viktor Hovland	8400	0	0	0
Matthew Wolff	7500	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	7200	0	0	0
Luke Donald	6700	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6400	0	0	0
Stewart Cink	6300	0	0	0
Chip McDaniel	6300	0	0	0
Will Claxton	6200	0	0	0
Justin Suh	6200	0	0	0
Billy Hurley	6100	0	0	0
Smylie Kaufman	6100	0	0	0
Mike Weir	6100	0	0	0
Ryan Vermeer	6100	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6100	0	0	0
Chad Collins	6000	0	0	0
Will MacKenzie	6000	0	0	0
David Berganio	6000	0	0	0
Matt Harmon	6000	0	0	0
Lee Houtteman	6000	0	0	0
Morgan Hoffmann	6000	0	0	0
Zachary Bauchou	6000	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 8.4k–16 players)

Guys like Reavie and Ryan Moore would normally help boost your average price remaining per player up. But this week, a very thin field has vaulted some of last week’s bargains up to stiffer prices than we are used to seeing by their names. One of those guys that is my favorite for the week, is the uber talented Joaquin Niemann.

Storming out of the gates last season with four top-10s in his first eight professional starts, the Chilean prodigy’s unsustainable pace caught up with him. After grinding through 2019 with mostly missed cuts or finishes outside the top-35, the 20 year-old has returned to form.

His last four starts have finished T-31 or higher, capped off with a season best T-5 at last week’s Travelers Championship. A depleted field should help him continue his hot streak.

Since he’ll likely be covered in chalk from the DFS community, Patrick Reed is my favorite pivot for this range. He should be very motivated to earn some FedEx points here if he wants any chance of qualifying for the Tour Championship, an event he’s made every year since 2014.

Sweet Spot (8.3k to 7k–49 players)

Speaking of playing the villain role like Reed, Clarence Boddicker is in the discussion for most underrated movie bad guy of all-time. I mean, what kind of sick mother fucker pulls a savage move like this and gets away with it…

Wow. So many things to unpack in that exchange. I just need to move on. Jason Kokrak has been talked about in this space several times in 2019.

I am going to pretend last week’s first missed cut of the year was just a blip on the radar of what has been a splendid career best season.

Similar to Kokrak, Corey Conners is having a break through season of his own, thanks to elite ball striking. Dissimilar to Kokrak, Conners continues to be disrespected by the DK pricing model.

Regardless, both men are on the fringes of the top-30 in FedEx standings. With time running to solidify their first career Tour Championship appearance, they should be highly encouraged to play well this week.

Sneaky Low % Owned (Below 7k ~87 players)

As previously stated, I continue to target ball strikers, especially in events without any course history. In that light, Sepp Straka and Hank Lebioda have consistently provided solid week to week value at dirt cheap prices.

Along with them, fellow ball striker Sam Ryder maintained a solid sophomore campaign with a T-51 last week. I like him to cash his 13th check in what will be his 18th start of the season, and have a slightly increased ceiling in a favorable field.

Same goes for newly turned pro Justin Suh. He hasn’t made a weekend in his three tour starts this season. That should make him less popular with the sharps than fellow newcomer Chip McDaniel, who has made four of five cuts this year, including a T-5 in the Puerto Rico event.

Getting really filthy, Stewart Cink is my favorite contrarian play for this week. After being off since April working through some back issues, the tour veteran has been helping promote the event all week in Detroit. Some much needed rest, and a 76 percent career cut rate is enough for me to throw a dart at Cink.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Jason Kokrak–Discussed above.
• Byeong Hun An–Should be a perfect spot for him to notch a top-25, which would tie his single season best of seven set last year.
• Luke List–Missed his last two weekends at the Memorial and US Open. A guy like Kokrak that is still looking for the elusive break through win on tour. This would be the ideal field to do it.

Best Course History Plays

Nothing to cover here. I guess I’ll just drop in my message for Corey Conners for this week…

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Niemann
2. Reed
3. Kokrak
4. Conners

To reaffirm Clarence Boddicker’s bad assery, I’ll end with a great scene from Robocop where what happens to poor Bob Morton perfectly illustrates the impact on my DFS week when any of my core players miss the cut…

Good luck in Detroit! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!