by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)
Philadelphia Eagles– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB9 Carson Wentz
- RB 28 Jordan Howard
- RB54 Miles Sanders (Rookie-Picked Round 2 2nd RB taken)
- WR25 Alshon Jeffery
- WR47 DeSean Jackson
- WR Not Ranked JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Rookie Picked Round 2 6th WR taken)
- TE2 Zach Ertz
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
PHI QB– In 2018 PHI QB were used slight less vs 2017 by -0.3% but the FP generated was the highest in the last 5 years! Wentz is current a QB9 (later pick) and he generated 22.5 FP/G. The public predicts at 9 he goes up to 23.5 FP/G. The public is bullish slightly. PHI did take a rookie QB Clayton Thorson (unranked ADP QB) but taken at the 5th round. Expect him to play a little late unless an injury occurs.
PHI RB –The rushing game of PHI in 2018 was depressed by -4.3% and PHI went out to acquire J Howard and drafted a top rookie in Miles Sanders (Round 2- Ranked RB54). Howard is at RB 28 so he is not as high up as might be thought vs the rookie. Sanders is good sleeper handcuff etc in redraft and a must take in dynasty. Note that 2018 RBs in PHI produced a sad 5th worst FP in the last 6 years.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
PHI TE – In 2018, because of the poor RBs, the TE was heavily in play at a +3% increase vs 2017. Ertz and Goddert came into 2018 and their FP was the best for PHI in the last 6 years. Solid. Ertz is currently 2nd TE. That ADP is pretty much the same as he scored in 2018 as the TE3. The public is thinking of no improvement or decline. He should? be a safe TE pick for 2019.
PHI WR – The PHI WRs were used more than 2017 by +1.6%. They did produce the best FP for PHI in the last 6 years. A Jeffery is staying in PHI for 2019 and he is at WR25 levels in the 2019 ADP redraft. That is close to his 2018 level of End of the Season 9.3 FP/Game. The public is expecting no change. He was a WR24 last year. D Jax is coming in fresh? and is at WR47. The public is expecting a significant drop for his WR26 production at 9.2 FP/G vs a predicted WR47 level of 7FP/G a poor 25% drop in FP/G. So why the drop? Is he too low? I would watch for clues and you may collect a WR3 top end for a WR4 price?
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Note PHI did acquire JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Rookie Picked Round 2 6th WR taken) and that may be part of the story. Hard to gauge the rookie for this year without an injury? A good dynasty draft, hold and hope selection. He is not ranked in the top 68 WR in the 2019 ADP. Watch for flashes in the preseason. He could be a waiver wire pick later in the year. (FYI DJAX played 12 games last year, 14 and 15 before that Jeffery was at 13 games last year)