by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
OAKLAND RAIDERS– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB26 Derek Carr
- RB44 Isaiah Crowell
- No TE ranked above TE 22th
- WR8 Antonio Brown
- WR51 Tyrell Williams
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
OAK QB– In 2018 the OAK QB was used at a +2.9% increase vs 2017. The QB FP were the third best in the last 6 years. Currently the public sees Carr at QB 26 and he was at QB18 last year at 289 FP. The 26th QB last year was at 222 FP. The public is predicting a 24% drop in value even with Brown being added. That seems figure and he should be higher at least closer to QB18. If so then Brown should be the same as Eli was end of season QB 17 right next to Carr.
OAK RB – In 2018, the RBs were used at the 207 levels and the RB FP was the 3rd best in the last 6 years. Lynch is out retired? and that gives us Crowell at RB44. Last year he was RB 35 at 140 FP. The public is predicting 120 of RB FP a drop of 15% of 2018’s value. I would stand pat on his ADP figure. He is not a WR3 candidate at this point.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
OAK TE – In 2018, the OAK TEs was used a whopping +7.3% and they generated the best FP in the last 6 years. Cook is gone and not TE is ranked at 22th or higher. Certainly, a place seems to be there is a TE to jump in. Therefore, either Lee or Wilson may figure as a deep sleeper.
OAK WR – OAK WRs in 2018 dropped by -10.4% and thus led to acquisition of A Brown to added strength to OAK’s passing crew. The 2018 season was the worst for OAK in the last 6 years and a drop of 30% of FP. Brown is currently at WR 8th. Interestingly, he produced for PIT 323 FP at WR5. If he does WR8 in 2019 then he would produce 297 FP. Therefore the public is thinking he drops only 8%. T Will is the next WR at WR51 predicted to generate 136 FP which nearly the same he did in LAC in 2018. Thus no change expected. Is there another WR the bridges these 2? Maybe JJ Nelson? Seems unlikely.
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