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PGA DFS AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Targets

If you need PGA DFS to remedy football withdrawal, I will been posting DK targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

For example, this week I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Dustin Johnson and Tony Finau. What I will do is point out that rostering two five figure selections will leave your average remaining price per player around $7,000. This is the price range I will focus on each week.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend first and foremost. The way DK prices their fields out, I almost never will play anyone 10k or above. With something as random as golf performances week-week, they simply do not justify the investment in my mind. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,500-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily out weigh another. And, like any good speculative decision making process,instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing! Before the picks, let’s take a look at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am format and courses to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Courses (Same three course rotation since 2010)

Pebble Beach (main course), par 72, 6800-6900 yards
Spyglass Hill par 72, 6900-7000 yards
Monterey Peninsula, par 71, 6800-6900 yards

Players spend Thursday through Saturday playing each course paired with mostly Bill Murray, current/retired pro athletes from other sports, D-list celebs, and super rich white dudes. Rounds are notoriously slow (even by PGA Tour standards) surpassing the six hour mark in some cases. Pros that can let their hair down, exercise the most patience, or effectively medicate themselves will likely have an advantage in this event. Which perfectly stands to reason why Dustin Johnson has racked up six top 5 finishes, including one win, in his last nine appearances.

Beyond any player’s fun loving personality, you’ll also want to know which course each is set to play during the first three days. This will help temper expectations while you’re sweating out 10 foot par puts, and looking for DK Showdown Mode edges. Click here for a full listing of tee times for the first three days.

In terms of toughness, all three courses play as some of the least challenging on Tour. Pebble Beach GL is the flagship of the tournament, with it’s majestic coastline views alongside multiple fairways. This link does a nice job of pointing out what stat has correlated the most to winning the event in recent years. From the graph, it’s clear players that are sharpest with their mid iron/wedge game will have success playing Pebble.

Spyglass Hill plays a touch longer with more trees than Pebble. This makes it more unforgiving off the tee, but better for protection on windy days. The real gains will likely come from scores on Monterey Peninsula.

A par 71 that features four par 5s and five par 3s, this course will likely be a focus for anyone playing in one day tournaments. Besides crushing Monterey, the best recipe for anyone to make Saturday’s 54 hole cut will be to throw darts into greens at Pebble, and get paired with the least annoying/shitty amateur. That said, let’s get to the targets….

Long Shots

Ryan Ruffels $6,000

The 20-year old Australian phenom is the lowest price in the field. He’s taking some shit this week from douchey golf media snobs for being granted another sponsor’s exemption in order to gain eligibility at Pebble this week.

Regardless, you usually need to hit on a risky play for high GPP results. I’ll gladly take a dude with elite pedigree who is motivated to shove it in the face of all these idiots for doing something all them would do if they were in his position.

Kelly Kraft $6,600

Kraft is coming off his best season on the PGA Tour. That has carried over to 2019 about as well as the Federal Government’s operations has. Lucky for him, he is back at the venue where he tied his career best finish on tour as runner up in 2017’s Pro-Am. I like him as a sneaky contrarian play to get things turned around in a historically friendly setting.

7,000s

Going back to the “strong approach game” theory, Chesson Hadley (7,100) and Talor Gooch (7,300) are guys I love in this price range. Both rank in the top 11 SG: Approach this season, and each have two top 10 finishes.

Gooch, in particular, has been in contention on Sunday in two of his last three starts. He appears poised for a massive 2019 breakout following a solid rookie campaign.

Kevin Streelman (7,300) and Pat Perez (7,300) both have a solid track record in this event. Like Kraft, they come into Pebble experiencing some early season struggles. This should throw DFSers off the scent of these two grizzled vets before their inevitable turn arounds start.

Speaking of bouncing back, Andrew Putnam (7,900) is my favorite candidate to rebound from his missed cut last week. Going back to last season, he’s been one of best putters, and arguably the hottest under-the-radar player on tour. I think he remains in the midst of his ascension as a top 50 player in the world (up from 356 to start last year), adding another positive note at Pebble.

Fading the Chalk

Jordan Spieth  $9,400

If I had to pick one guy over 9k to avoid, it’d be Spieth. He’s been too much of a head case lately–even for him. And yes, that’s saying something.

Chalk I can’t Live Without

Dustin Johnson $11,400

There are five players listed in the 10k and above range. If I am choosing one to roster it’s gotta be DJ. His form, event history, floor/upside combo, and ability reach almost every par 5 in two make him the most can’t miss selection on the board. It should be fun to see him, Tony Finau, and rookie Cameron Champ (8,000) battle it out for long drive all weekend.

Good luck at Pebble Beach! Don’t forget to follow me on twitter insults and comments are always welcome.

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