It is inevitable that someone will overreach for a player in your 2019 fantasy football draft.
Rethink how you define busts. It is not only those players who fail to put up fantasy points. It is also those players who during your fantasy draft give you visions of sugar plums and 50 touchdowns in a season. Spoiler alert! An overreach is also what we call busts.
Yes, it is early, but never too early to weed out those players who will potentially make or break your fantasy season.
Fantasy football players who will be busts in 2019
Leonard Fournette, Running back, Jacksonville Jaguars
It is pretty much a consensus that Fournette will be a bust next season. And the stats are right there…Fournette is trending the wrong way.
In 2017, Fournette played in 13 games. He averaged 3.9 yards a carry, carrying the ball 268 times. He also added nine touchdowns and 1040 yards.
This year Fournette played in eight games. He averaged 3.3 yards a carry on 133 attempts. He ran for a total of 439 yards with five touchdowns.
His targets also went down by almost half. In 2017 he was targeted 48 times for 36 receptions and one touchdown. This year he was targeted 26 times for 22 receptions and one touchdown.
While his ability to stay on the field has always been a concern, now it is coupled with his ability to effectively produce when on the field. Fournette is trending down.
Jerick McKinnon, Running back, San Francisco 49ers
This is less about McKinnon and more about Matt Breida. McKinnon made an early exit with a torn ACL. Then his quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo made an exit with a torn ACL. The 49ers managed to find suitable replacements but there is still the giddy anticipation of having both Garoppolo and McKinnon back.
Just remember, at the very least it will be a running back by committee. That alone should lower McKinnon’s ADP. Don’t get caught up in the expectations of what McKinnon was capable of…and waste a way too high draft pick for him.
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LeVeon Bell, Running back, Not Yet Determined
CJ Anderson has all but proven that running backs are plug and play. With Bell going for the cash, it is not a given he will end up in a system that benefits him.
Bell is a talent, of that there is no argument. But even a man with a dearth of talent will wilt behind an inept offensive line and a less than stellar quarterback.
Wait and see where Bell goes…then check out the offensive line, before predetermining to draft him in the first two rounds.
Antonio Brown, Wide receiver, Not Yet Determined
Seriously, Brown is good. Real good. But in Pittsburgh he was the beneficiary of a system that helped him along. This season Brown was targeted 169 times! He was the third most targeted wide receiver behind Atlanta’s Julio Jones and tied with Green Bay Packers’ Davante Adams.
Of Brown’s 169 targets he caught 104 for 1297 yards and 15 touchdowns! Will he see that kind of attention anywhere else? That remains to be seen.
Hunter Henry, Tight end, Los Angeles Chargers
Henry was the victim of injury this year. And in a shallow tight end pool you might start to panic and reach. Hold steady.
George Kittle, Tight end, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle had a historic season. He finished the season with 136 targets for 88 receptions. This accumulated in 1377 yards and five touchdowns. And he accomplished all this under three different quarterbacks. So yes, it is understandable if you are devising a plan to draft him in the top three rounds. Easy big fella.
So the question you have to ask yourself is, if you draft him in say…the second round, will he hold that value? Kittle will be considered a “bust”, not because he won’t produce, but because his production will not equate with the value of drafting him early.
Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs
Speaking of which…Mahomes finished the fantasy season with 50 touchdowns and most likely won you your fantasy league. You looked like a genius drafting him last year.
But do you really expect him to have the same production in 2019? Not likely. Again, Mahomes is under “bust” because he will most likely go in the first round by that person who believes. If Mahomes even slightly regresses to the mean, he will still be the top fantasy quarterback…but are you really going to draft him ahead of say….Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, or Christian McCaffrey to name just a few?
As with Kittle, it won’t be lack of production that makes him a bust. It will be you drafting him way too early. Leaving productive running backs and DeAndre Hopkins on the board is what makes him a potential bust.
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