If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets here each week for the afternoon slate. My goal every week, is to identify three to four low cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 10 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
|UCF@MEM 10/13/2018 03:30PM ET||4.5||78|
|[email protected]OSU 10/13/2018 12:00PM ET||29.5||59.5|
|[email protected]PSU 10/13/2018 03:30PM ET||13.5||54|
|[email protected]UT 10/13/2018 03:30PM ET||14.5||61.5|
|[email protected]ND 10/13/2018 02:30PM ET||21||56|
|OKST@KSU 10/13/2018 12:00PM ET||7||61.5|
|UW@ORE 10/13/2018 03:30PM ET||3||58.5|
|TA&M@SCAR 10/13/2018 03:30PM ET||2.5||53.5|
|UGA@LSU 10/13/2018 03:30PM ET||7||50.5|
|[email protected]AUB 10/13/2018 12:00PM ET||15.5||47.5|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like McKenzie Milton and Trace McSorley. What I will do is point out that rostering Milton, and the stud Nittany Lion quarterback in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,067. This is the price range I will focus on each week.
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Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
Speaking of, let’s get to my first selection…
JaTarvious Whitlow | RB | Auburn $5,600
The redshirt freshman known as “Boobee,” might be the most mispriced player in the field this week, as the clear lead back in a borderline JV-varsity matchup. After a tough loss to Mississippi St. last week, Auburn will be looking to take out their frustration on a Tennessee defense that has been bludgeoned on the ground this season every time they have faced a quality opponent.
Even in his toughest matchup against LSU earlier this season, Whitlow proved he can produce with a 22-104-1 line. As the third largest favorite on the afternoon board, he should have plenty of close out carries when the Tigers are protecting a second half lead Saturday. A career day from the Alabama native would not be a surprise at all. And besides, I’ve always been more of a Boobee guy.
Sean Dykes | TE | Memphis $3,000
This is the exact type of price/floor/upside combination I look for every week to start my lineups with. Dykes came on strong as a big play pass catcher toward the end of last season, capping it off with a three catch, 163 yard performance in their conference championship 63-55 double OT loss against UCF. He’s been relatively quiet, amassing a 7-130-1 line in five starts this season, but that could all be changing this week.
Dykes, and the rest of the Memphis offense, is projected to be in the highest scoring/back and forth game for the afternoon slate. Considering he averages over 20 yards per catch for his career, Dykes will only need a couple plays to return value at his price.
In what should be a shootout, anyone with an established role in either offense has an increased chance of outperforming their price this week. Which brings me to my next selection…
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Patrick Taylor Jr. | RB | Memphis $4,000
Patrick Taylor Jr., might be second fiddle to Darrell Henderson, but he has a steady role that provides a solid floor of double-digit touches.
In this game, he has potential to be more than enough to do damage. Additionally, I believe it’s reasonable to speculate that the Tigers will have a run heavy game plan to take advantage of UCF’s below average run defense (ranked 90th nationally in yards allowed per game), in order to keep the Knight’s zillion plays per minute offense off the field as much as possible.
Others to Consider
Keaontay Ingram | RB | Texas $5,500
Liked him last week. I’ll let this guy explain my rationale this week…
Andre Baccellia | WR | Washington $3,500
The junior wideout was part of my night slate targets last week. His role in the Huskies offense is enough to reasonably project him out for 4-5 touchdowns this season. This week’s matchup with Oregon should be a great spot for Baccellia to break a big play for his first score of the season.
Mohamed Ibrahim | RB | Minnesota $4,300
The matchup at Ohio St. does not suggest much upside here, but the guaranteed volume/price combo is worth a look.
Michigan St. Receivers
With Cody White remaining out nursing a broken hand, Felton Davis ($6,000) is the clear top option for quarterback Brian Lewerke. However, between Brandon Sowards ($3,800), Darrell Stewart ($3,700), Cam Chambers ($3,000) and Jalen Nailor ($3,000) someone should emerge to return huge value this week.
My money would be on Stewart, as he is the one of the group who has a proven track record of consistent production, but that hasn’t necessarily been the case for him this season. Either way, now that it’s clear MSU is awful, I would anticipate a game script that has them running lots of pass plays when they are down by many points Saturday in Happy Valley.
Oklahoma St. Receivers
The Cowboys now have four legit receivers that can be highly productive in any given week. The emergence of Landon Wolf ($5,300), and Tyron Johnson ($5,500) the last two weeks has even brought stud Tylan Wallace’s ($6,600) price down substantially to where he is a great value this week in a soft matchup.
Also, don’t sleep on mammoth tight end Jelani Woods ($3,000) as one of the better dart throws in the field this week. They are starting to involve him more each week, and he responded well last Saturday with a 14 yard touchdown grab.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Taylor Cornelius | QB | Oklahoma St. $8,300
Cornelius has gone north of 30 DK points in three of his last four games. He, and the rest of the skill position players, are under valued this week making Mike Gundy’s crew a very affordable stack.
Jake Browning | QB | Washington $7,100
This is great value for a quarterback that has a 20 point floor and considerable upside against a weak Oregon pass defense (ranked 89th nationally in yards allowed per game). The made Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello look like John Elway earlier this season, when he went for over 300 yards and three scores in just 19 completions.
Chalk I can’t Live Without
Dexter Williams I RB I Notre Dame $8,200
Well, now. It’s clear the Irish have found their quarterback and top running back with Williams back from suspension. He and Ian Book have taken Notre Dame’s offense to another level the last two weeks in blowout wins over two ranked opponents.
During that stretch, Williams has been a monster with touchdown runs of 45, 97, and 31 yards. Also, did I mention Pittsburgh is a terrible football team?
Trace McSorley I QB I Penn St. $9,200
Considering what he did to Ohio St. a couple weeks ago, and the fact that PSU had a bad loss to MSU last season, McSorley should be primed to make the Spartans part of his personal 2018 #MeToo movement.
Good luck for the Week 7 afternoon slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated. Check out the night slate breakdown here.