Is the College Football DFS Week 6 afternoon contest on DraftKings not enough for you before NFL Sunday? Outstanding! It isn’t enough for me either which is why, in addition to my targets for the early slate, I will be posting my approach for the night contest each week here starting with Week 4.
My goal every week, is to identify three to four low cost, or reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from. With that in mind, let’s get to it.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the night DK contest:
|[email protected]UCF 10/06/2018 07:00PM ET||24||74.5|
|[email protected]WISC 10/06/2018 07:30PM ET||17||58.5|
|ND@VT 10/06/2018 08:00PM ET||7||55.5|
|UW@UCLA 10/06/2018 07:30PM ET||21||52.5|
|[email protected]TA&M 10/06/2018 07:00PM ET||6||50.5|
|AUB@MSST 10/06/2018 07:30PM ET||3.5||43|
|[email protected]UGA 10/06/2018 07:30PM ET||26.5||54|
Garrett Groshek | RB | Wisconsin $3,600
The converted quarterback is starting to carve out a role as the Badgers primary passing-down back, in his sophomore campaign. Last week, he even out rushed primary backup running back Taiwan Deal 8-6, and picked up two crucial first downs on Wisconsin’s game-winning drive, in a close game that they absolutely needed after losing to BYU at home their last time out.
He clearly has the trust of his coaches, and quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who has targeted Groshek the third most on the team this season. Along with freshman tight end Jake Furgeson ($3,800), he is the exact type of price/floor combination I look for when I’m beginning to build my lineups. Oh, and I should mention Nebraska sucks.
Joshua Kelley | RB | UCLA $4,500
Yes, so does UCLA. But, Chip Kelly may have finally found a solution for what has been a very forgettable backfield. After another ineffective start from UCLA’s primary rushers against Colorado last week, Kelly quickly turned to Kelley 😉 who responded with 12 rushes for 124 yards, including a 44 yarder. He also added three catches for 10 yards, and accumulated all these numbers while the game was still close.
Washington will likely be more challenging, but for context as to how they have played the run this season, the Huskies did allow Arizona St. and Utah running backs to average 4.6 yards per carry, so they’re not exactly the 85′ Bears. I think the junior is safe for 12-15 touches, with upside for more if the Bruins can keep it close into halftime. I’ll take that all day at this price.
Andre Baccellia | WR | Washington $4,000
The Huskies speedy wideout is enjoying an expanded role in his junior season, ranking second on the team in catches (14) and third in yards (160). In addition to catches, Washington coaches like to get the ball in his hands on reverses to take advantage of Baccellia’s sub 4.4 speed.
Sticking with the UCLA is awful theme, I like anyone with a firm role in the Washington offense to have a strong chance to out perform their price on the night slate. At his low price, that could take just one play from Baccellia.
James Proche | WR | SMU $6,300
Whether it be catches, yards, touchdowns, targets, or team target percentage, this junior wideout ranks near the very best in the country in each. In his toughest defensive matchup this season against Michigan, he had his best game, posting a 11-166-2 line.
This week, he’ll look to pad those wonderful DFS stats in a game where they should be playing from behind, in what projects to be the highest scoring affair of the night. Similar to Vandy’s Kalijah Lipscomb ($6,900), Proche’s role as the proverbial black hole of the offense makes him just as likely to out perform his price as any receiver in the field.
JD Spielman | WR | Nebraska $5,000
Think diet Kalijah Lipscomb for the Cornhuskers. JD, the son of Vikings GM Rick Spielman, should see lots of passes come his way when they are down by 100 under the lights in Madison.
Damon Hazelton | WR | Virginia Tech $5,800
Easily the top option in the Hokies passing game with a touchdown in every game this season. New full-time starting quarterback Ryan Willis ($6,900) settled in nicely with him last week connecting four times, for 65 yards and a score.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Adrian Martinez I QB I Nebraska $6,300
Playing two quarterbacks is a very popular approach in college DFS. In case I am not liking the value I see at running back and wide receiver, I like to identify one or two low cost quarterbacks to target. For the Week 6 night slate, Adrian Martinez at $6,300 continues to jump out at that price.
Scott Frost’s offense uses the quarterback as a runner enough to provide Martinez with a solid floor as a starting quarterback. There should also be some garbage time numbers for him to gobble up.
Terry Wilson I QB I Kentucky $5,400
Kentucky’s Terry Wilson is essentially a second running back that throws sometimes. For DK purposes, there isn’t anyone else, across all positions at this price, offering the guaranteed floor that the sophomore quarterback does.
If Auburn running back JaTarvious Whitlow can’t go, Kam Martin ($6,300) would see a huge workload against a Missippippi St. defense that was drilled by Kentucky’s Benny Snell for 165 yards, and four scores on the ground two weeks ago, which is the only offense with a pulse that the Bulldogs have faced this season.
By the way, it is going to take everything within my power not mortgage the house on Auburn laying just 3.5 here.
Good luck for the Week 6 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and don’t forget to like, share, and especially troll.