Is the College Football DFS Week 7 afternoon contest on DraftKings not enough for you before NFL Sunday? Outstanding! It isn’t enough for me either which is why, in addition to my targets for the early slate, I will be posting my approach for the night contest each week here starting with Week 4.
My goal every week, is to identify three to four low cost, or reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the night DK contest:
|WVU@ISU 10/13/2018 07:00PM ET||6.5||56|
|[email protected]BAMA 10/13/2018 07:00PM ET||28||74|
|MISS@ARK 10/13/2018 07:30PM ET||7||67.5|
|[email protected]CAL 10/13/2018 07:00PM ET||7||53|
|[email protected]MICH 10/13/2018 07:30PM ET||9.5||49|
|VT@UNC 10/13/2018 07:00PM ET||6||57.5|
|MIA@UV 10/13/2018 07:00PM ET||6.5||47.5|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Will Grier and Tua Tagovailoa. What I will do is point out that rostering Grier, and the stud Alabama quarterback in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $4,667. This is the price range I will try to focus on each week.
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Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
And, right on cue, let’s begin…
Brock Purdy | QB | Iowa St. $5,700
When I saw this price by Purdy’s name, I think it moved. In a matter of a few plays last Saturday, Purdy went from some no-name, true freshman third stringer, to unquestioned team leader, that almost single-handedly burned the Cowboy’s season to the ground in Stillwater. I have it on good authority that, after his fourth scotch in the fourth quarter, even T. Boone Pickens admitted this kid has it.
While it’s unlikely he’ll match his production from last week, his jacked up price makes him a must play against the Mountaineer “score first, play defense later” philosophy in what is no longer a penciled in victory on the schedule Saturday night.
It’s also important to note, like Baker Mayfield taking over for the Browns, Purdy’s emergence also bumps the ceiling up for all Cyclone skill position players overnight. DK prices have not adjusted accordingly.
Cheyenne O’Grady | TE | Arkansas $3,300
Tight end continues to be a source of value each week in college DFS. In a bad offense that is desperate for any playmakers, it’s clear Hogs quarterback Ty Storey likes looking O’Grady’s way as his borderline top option after the starting tight end’s return from a four game suspension.
In just two games, the Fayetteville native has been an immediate factor in the Razorbacks offense catching 10 passes for 125 yards, and two scores. This week, the struggling Arkansas attack gets great news, with arguably the worst power five defense in the nation coming to town, in what projects to be the second highest scoring game on the board.
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I think O’Grady is way more than the dart throw his price would suggest, and is safe for a 5-6 catch, 60-70 yard game with reasonable upside for more. Even though this is my first instance hearing of a man named Cheyenne, I’ll gladly name by unborn son after him if he helps me take down a GPP Saturday night.
Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | Virginia $6,700
Or as the Virginia offensive coaches refer to him, the “game plan” has gobbled up almost a third of Bryce Perkin’s targets according to NCAAsavant.com. Similar to other wideouts I’ve discussed this season like Laviska Shenault Jr., Kalijah Lipscomb, and James Proche, Zaccheaus is the only dynamic player his quarterback can consistently rely on, which translates into huge guaranteed volume for fantasy purposes.
Saturday night will be a showcase game for Virginia, with an ESPN prime time game against the 16th ranked team in the country. Virginia’s coaches will be throwing everything they can at the Canes to pull off the upset.
That means getting the ball into Zaccheaus’s hand’s early, often, andan in as many ways as possible. Don’t take it from idiot like me, they’ll tell you themselves.
Even in a below average offense, in what projects to be a lower scoring matchup, I’ll take Zaccheaus at his price over Damon Hazelton ($7,300), Patrick Laird ($8,000), and Jonathan Taylor ($8,400) for the night slate.
Virginia tight end Evan Butts makes for a decent 3k dart throw here as well.
Others to Consider
Running back last week’s running backs
A couple of guys are still mispriced after seeing their roles continue to expand last week in UCLA’s Joshua Kelley ($5,100), and Wisconsin’s Garrett Groshek ($3,300).
Groshek’s upside is limited, but he’ll touch the pill enough so that you won’t be in danger of returning nothing. In his price range, at the running back position, eight to 10 points is enough to get the job done.
Additionally, there is some potential game script upside here for the Badgers to be passing more in the second half. He’s not exactly Darren Sproles, but as I talked about last week, Groshek has a firm hold on the passing down running back role.
Because I hate Michigan, I hope it doesn’t happen, but seeing Groshek grab checkdown catches from Hornibrook will be the emotional hedge I need when UM is up two scores in the second half at the big house.
With Kelley’s upside, as former Washington Wizard legend would say…
He got the call last week as UCLA’s starter, and made the most of it dropping a 20-125-1 line, adding three grabs for 39 yards. All of the sudden, Kelley becomes the much better value play at running back, than his counter part in this matchup with California’s Laird.
The running back position has typically been harder to find value than it has been for wideouts, or quarterbacks for CFB DK. Kelley’s guaranteed volume against a meh Cal defense will keep him sliding into my RBs as long as DK isn’t adjusting his price.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Ty Storey | QB | Arkansas $6,700
As mentioned above, one of the Razorbacks best chances to shine offensively is Saturday night against an Ole Miss defense ranked near the bottom of the country in yards, and points allowed per game. With Purdy being the other obvious, cheap quarterback play, building a lineup around both could be a gangster move for the night contest.
Chalk I can’t Live Without
A.J. Brown I WR I Ole Miss $9,100
I like the value so much more at running back, and quarterback than receiver for the night games. If I’m paying up on the night slate, Brown fits the mold perfectly with a great matchup, in an expected shootout. He should have a floor of around 20 points, and a video game upside.
Good luck for the Week 7 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated.