By John Bush
Best at Best Ball Part 4
Best at Best Ball Part 4 continues in the series of Best Ball depth articles on this subject using current ADP based FP/G projections. Confusing issues are the focus! This has taken a series to incorporate all the comments I can throw in to the mix. Last one coming Part 5!
Best at Best Ball Part 1 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36666
Best at Best Ball Part 2 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36677
Best at Best Ball Part 3 https://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36708
HOU has RB issues
IND has RB and TE issues
JAC and KC have WR issues
HOU Running Backs
The Public is debating the 2 RBs of Miller at 6th round at 10.7 FP/G vs Foreman at 9th round predicted to generate 8.7. In 2017 Miller owned Foreman in Passing Target share of 48% vs 8% and 60% rushing ATTs vs Foreman 20%. In 2017, Miller was at 12.6 FP/G vs Foreman at 6.5 FP/G. Does Miller drop in ATTs and Targets?
The idea is Foreman is “youth” and Miller is an Old Dog! Looking through at experts they support Miller Near 24th vs Foreman at 44th RB. I think Miller is a safe 2nd RB with some upside of 2 FP/G extra than predicted!
IND Running Backs
The public is debating Mack vs Hines the rookie. Note that expert like Wilkins not on the radar as the 2nd RB! The RBBC mess is because Gore is gone to MIA and leaves a 44% target share and 261 rushing attempts. The conventional wisdom says Mack steps up but the IND team brings in Hines and Wilkins! Mack is going in the 8th round at 9.3 FP/G while Hines is at round 14 at 7.8 FP/G and Wilkins is after the 16th round.
If you invest in here it’s going to be for a 5th level RB or more. That position invites speculation! This is where I would look for Hines and or Wilkins. Looking at some experts they are pinning Mack at 35th RB, Hines at 54th and Wilkins at 74th (free square drafting). Hines vs Mack is about a 16% difference between the 8th vs 14th round. Skip Mack until you have more clarity (Training Camps/Preseason) and take Hines or Wilkins last RB in your Best Ball!
IND Tight Ends
The TEs in IND are unclear. Doyle the hero TE from 2017 vs the next guy from DET Ebron. Doyle has 78% Target Share vs Ebron’s 74%. Doyle produced 11.4 FP/G vs Ebron’s 8.8 FP/G. Doyle has 3 vs Ebron 4 TDs. These are very similar in profile.
The Public is at Doyle at 9th round with 10.2 vs Ebron at 12th round generating 8.3 FP/G. If Doyle got the same as last year then Ebron would be at 6 to 7 FP/G production. These are clearly 2nd Level TEs and should be taken as a backup for bye weeks. I lean to not take either in the best ball or take both!
JAC Wide Receivers
The issue is how to separate the 4 WRs a true WRBC situation. The Public has Lee as the WR1 going in the 10th round at 9.8 FP/G, Westbrook in the 13th round predicted to generate 8.8 FP/G, Cole at round 14th 8.8 and finally Moncrief at 8.3 round 16.
The conventional wisdom suggests taking Moncrief as a free square in the last round. Also, the separation of Lee vs the others supports taking him as well. Cole vs Westbrook seems the same type of player.
in 2017 Lee was at 30%, Cole at 28% and Westbrook at 18%. Moncrief was 18 at IND. Lee and Cole had 3 TDs but generated 12.16 vs 9.6 and Westbrook at 11 FP/G. Moncrief was the least productive at 6.5. A group of experts has Lee at 42th, WR Moncrief at 77th, Westbrook at 84th, and Cole at 89th. This stands in contrast to the Best Ball ADP data.
Lee is the safest pick and a 4th level WR upside potential from 9.8 to 12 FP/G, a 20% boost as the ceiling. Moncrief is the WTF pick last in your Best Ball. Suggest avoiding the other 2 until new information is received.
KC Wide Recievers
Watkins has joined the KC team and Wilson has left. Hill remains. The Best Ball public is taking Hill as 2nd rounbd WR getting 16.1 vs Watkins at 7th round and 11.5. They differ by 30%! The 2017 FP/G were Hill 15.4 vs 10.5 for Watkins a 22% difference. Thus we have an 8% gap.
That leads to the thinking Watkins has an upside not calculated into his draft slot in Best Ball! Watkins got 9 TDs in 2017 vs Hill’s 6 TDs. Given the QB change, is the reason for the unsettled WR crew! This also supports a drop in Hills value and he may be overvalued currently. Experts place Hill at 16th vs Watkins at 37th.
Draft Watkins at the position with his upside into a high 3rd WR type and wait on Hill for later closer to the 20th WR.
LAC, LAR, MIA, and MIN have WR issues
LAC Wide Receivers
The debate is at the 2nd WR slot. The Public sees Mike Williams over Tyrell Williams by 2 rounds of draft captial but at nearly the same predcited FP/G of 8.7 vs 8.3. Both on these WRs are late round fodder in Best Ball. Which one?
Mike W had 5% targets with 4.5 FP/P vs T Will’s 22% and 9.71 FP/G. The 2017 season and Tyrell’s dominate vs Mike is not being considered. Why? The potential is higher for Mike vs Tryell given the college backgrounds. The Experts have Mike at 53th WR vs Tryell at 70th WR.
Thus we have the public seeing the actual data form 2017 and yet going with Mike vs Tryell by 5% in FP/G value and the Experts really seeing a 2018 difference of 25% or more. If you like to gamble grab Mike late in Best Ball 7th WR type and roll the dice with the experts!
LAR Wide Receivers
Currently in the WRBC, the team has Cooks, Kupp and Woods. The public is taking Cooks in round 3 (14.5 FP/G), Woods in round 6 (11.8 FP/G) and Kupp at round 7 (11.1 FP/G). Cooks was brought in from NE. He was getting 41% target share vs Woods at 25% and Kupp at 28%. Note thqt Watkins is gone leaving 70 targets. Cooks is expect to take those and more.
FP/G in 2017 had Cooks at 12.8 (predicted at 14.5), Woods at 15.7 (Predicted at 11.8) and Kupp at 11.8 (predicted at 11.1). Woods and Kupp had 5 TDs vs Cooks at TDs. The public sees Kupp having not progress upward in 2018. The also see Woods dropping by a whopping 25% in FP/G and Finally Cooks increasing by 12% from his NE 2017 work!
The experts view this crews at Cooks 25th, Woods 29th, and Kupp 38Th WR. My early risk analysis suggests Woods<Kupp
Kupp is a avoid until he drops 10 spots at 48th or so. Woods is the safest play and has the upside as a 25% loss seems uncalled for in ratings. Cooks is the riskiest play here and might be called for letting him go to 29th pick of WRs. I will take Woods as I see no reason he drops in 2018. If Cooks and Woods repeat then its Woods by 12% over Cooks. Is this a real 1A 1B WR tandem? Grab them both is possible to cover the bases.
MIA Wide Receivers
The Public is seeing 3 WRs to draft. Parker and Stills are close while Amendola is a 16th round free pick! Parker is going in the 9th round at 10.4 FP/G, Stills at 11th rounds at 9.6 FP/G and Amendola at 16th round 8.4 FP/G. Parker vs Still is only 8% difference in FP/G but 2 rounds difference in draft rounds. That simplest approach is to wait and take Stills later and pass on Parker. Danny A can be a last round hero for ya much later in Best Balls.
Interestingly, Danny has a 30% target share from Brady. Brady loved him and he certainly is a seasoned WR! I support his drafting last as well as Stills. Losing Landry reconfigured the WR crew and opens the door for all 3 to move forward.
Danny A was at 8.6 FP/G with 2 TDs in a much more competitive WR crew with pass catching RBs and Gronk. Note so in MIA. The public sees no movement for Danny A but if you imagine him in a less crowded team of pass catchers he should move in FP/G with added value.
Last year MIA had 3 WRs Landry at 40%, Parker, and Stills at 24 and 26% target share! If they equal split? That has Parker at 34%, Stills at 36% and Danny at 25 ish%. FP/G in 2017 was Danny at 8.6, Parker at 11.45 and Stills at 12.8. Finally in 2017 Parker vs Stills had 18 vs 12 Red Zones Targets, Danny had 16 RZ looks.
Take Stills at where he is going and Danny last pick out the door!
MIN Wide Receivers
Both WRs are going next to each other in round 3. Its a clear 1A 1B situation. The public predicts Thielen at 15.7 vs Diggs at 14.7. Take either or both?
They were from 14 to 13 FP/G in 2017 so the only issue is why the 2018 increase. Are they at their ceiling? Diggs had 6 TDs and Thielen at 4 TDs. Thielen had 17 at 20-yard line RZ looks vs Diggs at 13 RZ targets at the 20-yard line.
Theilen has 46% target share vs Diggs 31%. Diggs was more efficient given the FP/G in 2017. Does that efficiency difference change in 2018? The Experts see Thielen at 11th and Diggs at 14th WR. I would select Diggs as you can save a little draft capital on here vs Thielen. If you go WR first Diggs is a good pick. If you go RB first either is a good pick! If you are near the 12th spot grabbing both could nail down a lot of points.
NE and NO have RB issues
NE and NO have WR issues
NE Running Backs
The crowded RBBC in NE is confusing because of the additon of Sony Michel along with Burkhead and White. Dion Lewis has gone to TEN and that left 42 Targets, 5TDs and 11 FP/G on the table. How much could Michel collect?
The Public is taking Michel at round 5 (10.8 FP/G predicted), Burkhead in the 7th round (9.6 FP/G) and White at round 11 (8.4 FP/G). The differences are then Burkhead vs Michel 12% less and White vs Michel at 23% less while the rounds were 2 rounds and 6 rounds.
There are 154 leftover rushing attempts from Lewis leaving. Given the distribution of Pass to Rush, Burkhead seemed to be the Rusher and White the Pass Catcher. Finally, the experts have Michel at 25th and Burkhead at 35th RB. Given the differences of 12% vs 10 slots, this means Michel is way overvalued and Burkhead is right or Michel is right and Burkhead undervalued. The risk level is high with Michel.
I would draft White late and choose Burkhead as a safer pick vs Michel at his spot or lower.
NE Wide Receivers
In the WRs in NE, the first issue is the departure of Cooks. He leaves 125 targets, 6TDs and 12.8 FP/G on the table for collection. The second issue is Edelman’s 4 game vacation (maybe). Thirdly Danny A is gone leaving 93 targets, 2 TDs and 8.6 FP/G
The public likes Edelman at 5th round at 12.3 FP/G and Hogan at 9th round expected to generate 10.3 FP/G. Jordan Matthews also joined the NE and can be active as can Dorset. The last two are fringe players late-round gambles. Edelman vs Hogan is 16% difference in FP/G over the 4 rounds. The experts have Hogan at 32 and Edelman at 37. They have corrected for the issue.
Draft Hogan at his old round 8th or even 7th round and avoid Edelman until he comes into the correct drafting round 8th or 9th round.
NO Running Backs
The tandem of Kamara vs Ingram is the issue. They shared most of the rushing game in NO. Kamara had 108 targets 56% target share vs Ingram’s 75 targets at 40% target share. However, Ingram got 217 rushing attempts and Kamara at 111 rushing attempts. The framed picture is that Kamara is the passing guy and Ingram the rushing running back. They, however, did cross into each other’s jobs as well.
Ingram has 4 games off. What happens? That is the source of confusion. One possibility is Kamara collect all Ingram’s leftovers for 4 games. That would be a great bonus for Kamara drafters. The other possibility is either Daniel Lasco, T West, J Williams and or Boston Scott collects Ingram’s show. Thus Kamara does not collect.
The experts seem to support increased activity for Kamara at 4th RB vs Ingram at 22th RB! Given the situation, its seems Kamara is at the ceiling at 4/5th (17.8 FP/G predicted) and Ingram (12.8 FP/G) is a hold or buy at 22th RB. Ingram got 18.3 FP/G in 2017. If he can get 75% of that total then he will produce 14 FP/G very close into a round 2 status. I lean to collect Ingram at his current slot as a safe pick with some upside.
NO Wide Receivers
M Thomas dominated in Targets and Share at 157 and 52%. The public is collecting early 2nd round at a predicted 18.9. The other 2 WRs are going in the 12th rounds at 9.3 FP/G. Meredith is at 9.6 and Ginn is predicted at 9.3 FP/G. They are both a late-round play. The experts pick Ginn a 56th v Meredith at 61th. Thus between the 2 late grabs, I lean to Ginn given his 25% share last year and his 5 TDs. The big play TD is what you wish for in Best Ball leagues. Ginn is a viable pick late in the draft.