By John Bush
PPR Rankings Part 1
This article of my PPR Rankings Part 1 deals with the landscape view in the next three figures followed by positional rankings, risk and rank skew. Part 2 upcoming with have a deeper comparison of Public vs my Position rankings.
** Homework First then Real Draft**
Player rankings with ADP landscapes, clusters, and draft level of positions
Above is a positional landscape of current PPR based ADPs. I present the WR, TE, RB, QB, DST, and K in order from top to bottom. The range goes from 1st to 372 pick which is way too much but I wanted to include it for analysis of deep best ball leagues.
Each dot is a pick for the particular position. The arrows by colors highlight each position picks by 12th. (12th = levels for that position). The blue lines are boundaries of the different draft rounds and the numbers in yellow highlight are the picks by 12ths.
Using the arrows in the landscape, you can predict the draft upcoming on average and plan for a strategic pick. I look at clustering and pick flow to determine a general approach. I am drafting Best Balls and use these as guides. I like to use the WR vs RB arrows to see the shifts in the draft.
In PPR, the first 2 levels of RBs and WRs end in the 6th round. The RBs dominate the first round and slow allowing the WRs to catch up. The WRs after round 6th pick up steam and at pick 132 the 48th WR is gone but its pick 165 for the 48th RB to be drafted. A clear difference and WR uptick after round 6. Plan accordingly. We conclude that drafters feel good after 2 RBs on their team and they tend to stockpile WRs!
In PPR, the top 3 QBs are going quick vs in Non-PPR by the middle of round 2. My approach is later QBs for my teams but it’s good to predict this QB early run. Note by the end of 5 draft round 12 QBs are gone. You must plan to deal with this. Can be happy with QBs in the 13th to 24th QB picks? How to plan is key. I grab a QB near 12 and plan a target QB to stream on bye weeks and tough weeks for my QB1! Use the strength of schedule for that planning.
The first 3 TEs are drafted in PPR leagues at mid round 3. A cluster of the three followed by 1 TE in round 4 and 5 more in round 5. Where are you needed to be for your TEs? I am in Best Ball Drafting start at round 9 or 10 to pick a later TE. Which one are you taking?
I also add a magnified landscape of 1st to 192nd picks below. Please that for further depth of analysis.
Clustering in PPR Drafts Picks 1 to 192th.
I have a magnified 1 to 192 picks here with blue circles in the WR or RB clusters to keep track of the temporal patterns an average PPR draft gives us! My view is RBs are clustered early and them less clustered as teams gather their numerous WRs. Expect WRs runs and start the run or grab other positions. Have a draft plan. mock it out, then apply in best balls and finally in your real big leagues in August! Practice like this gets you ready!
Magnified Picks 1 to 192 for Position Levels Drafted vs ADP Pick
The arrows highlight the positional draft patterns for planning. I wanted a more focused view for you.
The first 10 RBs track and then the 11th and 12th RB end at the 24th pick. Thus, the clear draft focus is only the top 10. If you like 11 or 12 or so RBs instead of the later RBs in round 1 they should be waiting. Pre-draft work is needed to clarify your thinking.
The next wave of 12 RB is spread to the 60th pick. In the 26 picks, 12 RBs were picked which is almost 1 every 2 picks! The 3rd RBs end at mid 9th round at 117 pick which is 12 RBs per 57 picks or almost 1 RB per 5 picks! The velocity is dramatically slowing coming out of the 60th pick! 4th round RBs are ending ay 168 which is 51 picks and 1 RB per 4.25 draft picks. That is an increase of in velocity.
You can, therefore, dig into the predicted 3rd 4th RBs and wait for bargains. Homework first then the real draft. Students want the fire first then they say they will chop the wood. Hum!
The first 12 WRs end at pick 31 which is 1 WR per 2.5 draft picks vs the lead 10 RBs in 14 picks which is 1RB per 1.1 draft picks. RBs are being taken at twice the draft velocity. The speed is going to put a strain on your early. “Everyone is grabbing RBs. I must be the fool as well as take a back-end RB vs a Superior WR!
There is a 4th round cluster for WR 50% of that round’s picks are WR. The velocity only has sped up a little there. 1 per 2 vs 1 per 2.5 for WR 2nd levels vs 1st WRs. Let’s play forward and note the 2nd WRs end at 70. That is 1 WR per 3.25 picks note the drop in drafting velocity! RBs are at 1 per 2 picks. Again the feeling will exist to avoid WR bargains in favor of what others are doing!
The 3rd WRs end at 103 from the 70th pick. We are going to see an interesting aspect in the PPR drafts. This 3rd WR are being taken at 1 per every 2.75 draft picks. They have slowed down 0.25 in Draft Velocity (DV-new concept I just did 🙂 ). The 3rb level RBs are from seeing above ” The 3rd RBs end at mid 9th round at 117 pick which is 12 RBs per 57 picks or almost 1 RB per 5 picks!” WRs are not speeding up in DV they are just slowing down less than RBs at 1 per 5 at half the WR speed. Thus the flip feeling of needing a WR in here builds! Homework then draft!
The 4th round WRs from 104 to 132 is a DV of 1 WR per 2.33 Picks. The DV increases in this section and so will your “feeling” to draft the “hot sleeper’ WR. Step back and do your homework then the real draft. RB’s DV at the 4th level is slow at 1 RB per 4.25 picks. RBs in here are going to be less focused on as well.
QB and TEs
The DV for QBs 1s is 19 to 67 or 1 QB per 4 draft picks. QB 2s DV is from 68 to 119 or 1 per 4.25. Thus the pundits may have it wrong once the first QB going the next 24 picks about 1 per 4 draft pick or 3 per round on average. Using late QB drafting does not mean wait all day long. Homework first then a real draft!
The DV for TEs 1s is from 29th pick to 128 or 1 TE per 8 draft picks. TEs 2s then are from 129 to 206 or 1 per 6. Note the increase to 2 TEs per round! A late TE is like the QB do not wait all day. Homework first then a real draft!
Positional Rankings with Risk Levels and Ranking Skew Types
Risk and Skew.
Our Risk Metric has been converted to one of three BINs (High, Mid, and Low). Our FSP rankings can be judged by these rankings. Our Risk judgment is a measure of how “solid” is our ranking. High-risk players would tend to have “jello” rankings. Our assurance of our ranking at that number is weak. The range of outcomes is large/wide because of the level of uncertainty. The low-risk player will be those players whose range of outcomes is narrow. We have a better assurance of that player ranking. Mid Risk is the players whose outcomes are between the other two risk levels.
Our Skew Metric has been grouped and assigned into 3 groups (Better, Avg and Worse than Average Ranking). This is an additional metric that looks at the population and sees the distribution of the draft. Thus, assuming the risk is not high then what is the macro-predictions for that player. Do we have evidence that that prediction will be better or worse than the stated FSP rankings? In a group of similarly risk players closely ranked we would use the skew as a tiebreaker going for the better than average skew players.
Note the previous articles have more to say about these 2 metrics (Skew is all mine!)
The top 4 DST are solid in terms of risk and skew. Concerns about LAR and LAC
Top 4 picks are fine. Concerns after the 4th Kicker though!
The deeper QBs Stafford, Rivers are “safer” picks
No QBs have a perfect set of data. The risk is higher here. I do think Mahomes and Trubisky could be solid streamer types!
Concerns about Penny, Ingram, Freeman, Miller Guice and Jones but these have good shew numbers and can have a high ceiling.
Coleman Mack Hyde and White could have surprising ceilings vs ADP!
Gallman might be the cuff to Barkley vs Stewart. Blount, Ekeler, Barber, Carson, Clement are also in my late round homework plans!
Olsen and Graham carry issues as does Reed. Like Burton and Eifert for 2nd TEs. Kittle, Clay, Cook, and Njoku are late round TEs
High Risk but High Reward for Watson. He is on as my 2nd TE everywhere in Best Ball!
2014 He captured 194 FP. Expecting some movement back to that level.
Concerns for Gordon, Cooks, and Crabtree!
Solid on Jones, Woods, Kupp, Parker, Shepard, and Fuller.
Gamble on Garcon. Edelman, Dez, and Cobb at the market price
Gamble on Ginn and Wallace. I routinely use in Best Ball leagues.
Stills, Meredith, and Coleman are also good gambles.
Deep Plays on Kirk, Cole, Conley, and Smith for deep best ball leagues.
Given the area of the draft, I also have been collecting Brown, Enunwa, Grant, Snead, Allison, Wright, Sutton, Taylor, Samuel, Williams and Pettis.
They are all mid risk in a sea of high-risk players!