Non-PPR Player Rankings with Positional Risk and Skew Analysis
By John Bush
In Non-PPR Player Rankings an aspect of drafting that seems to be overlooked is that of current ADP based positional landscapes. Where are the different positions beginning? Are there clusters of the same position? What picks and rounds do those clusters occur?
I suggest in your draft plans that this is the first step. I will try to have multiple rounds of updated rankings for you to use. The current ADP based landscape is shown below. I have highlighted the dominant position by round.
The order is from round 1 beginning with RB/ RB+WR/ RB/ WR/ RB/ WR/ RB/ RB/ QB/ WR/ QB/ _/ _/ WR/ _/ RB.
The first decision is do you wish to follow the crowd or go differently at each round? If you go WR first that will place you at in the 25% vs others at 75% who picked an RB. If you are assigned draft picks 8 or more how do you go? Which of the 3 current first round WRs are good for you? All or only 1 or 2? Predraft research focuses your approach. Mock drafting can allow you to find your true opinions.
Other aspects of this landscape are:
- The first 3 TEs are gone by round 3 and the first 9 TEs are gone by the 7th round. Is that ok with you? If so who are your choices at the late TEs picks? Pre-Draft Plans!
- The first QB is going in round 3 and the top 7 QBs are gone by the 7th round? Is that ok? Who are your late QBs to focus on. Do your research beforehand.
- There is a clear WR run in the early 2nd round and in the 4th round? Is that where to take an RB/TE/QB? Planning your focus.
- Another 6th round WR cluster followed by another one at round 8! The first 36 WRs are gone going into the 7/8 rounds. Who are late WRs to take?
- The first 9 RBs dominate the first round. Who is your pick? The green circles highlight the clusters for RBs as do the other position’s clusters. The 8th round is where 36 RBs are gone. Late RB options?
- Use for pre-draft planning.
Positional Landscape for Non PPR Scoring
I have 2 sets of rankings in this article series (Parts 1 and 2). The first set is positionally based and the later ranking set is team based in Part 2 of the series. I suggest using both sets of ranking figures but for different purposes.
The first set of rankings is by positions. What is the landscape for each position? Our scaled numerical rankings reveal the closeness of multiple players on a scale of 100 to 0 (highest to lowest). Each position is scaled to allow choices between positions when it’s your pick in the draft. I used color-coded to look across the entire position. Besides our FSP scaled rankings we have added 2 additional metrics, Risk and Skew.
Risk and Skew.
Our Risk Metric has been converted to one of three BINs (High, Mid, and Low). Our FSP rankings can be judged by these rankings. Our Risk judgment is a measure of how “solid” is our ranking. High-risk players would tend to have “jello” rankings. Our assurance of our ranking at that number is weak. The range of outcomes is large/wide because of the level of uncertainty. The low-risk player will be those players whose range of outcomes is narrow. We have a better assurance of that player ranking. Mid Risk is the players whose outcomes are between the other two risk levels.
The figure below details the risk across the draft board. A clear association (not surprisingly) with ADP. In the 10th round, the risk is high/mid risk for most picks. Be focused here!
Our Skew Metric has been grouped and assigned into 3 groups (Better, Avg and Worse than Average Ranking). This is an additional metric that looks at the population and sees the distribution of the draft. Thus assuming the risk is not high then what is the macro-prediction for that player. Do we have evidence that that prediction will be better or worse than the FSP rankings? In a group of similarily risk players closely ranked we would use the skew as a tiebreaker going for the better than average skew players.
The 2 figures below display the current Non-PPR Draft and the player skew histogram of the entire population. Note the skew is unlike the risk metric as even in the later rounds there are plenty of positive skew players in the mix! Skew and risk map out differently! Note the first 50 ADP players have a tight skew while the more extremes are beginning in the 6th round and outward!
Below is the positional rankings of the defense and special teams (DST). Each figure has the overall ranking, player, team, position, positional ranking, bye week, my FSP rankings scaled 100 to 0, Risk, Our Skew Number (range of outcomes) and the skew group!
I will be focused more on PHI, HOU vs JAC and MIN
ADP seems to be on point. Do like Boswell PIT later and Butker at KC.
Like Winston and Dak with Manning and Carr. Late QB is suggested
Nice selections of low-risk RBs.
Targeting the better skew later RBs.
Worried about Gronk. Like Engram and Olsen with Walker and Rudolph. Late TEs are Hooper and Watson. Like Brate and Njoku as well.
Jeffery, Tate, and Crabtree
Watkins, Davis, Kupp, Crowder, Parker, and Shepard. Plenty of fish in here.
Wallace, Moncrief, and Pryor deep players.
Maclin and Sneed.