By Dr. John Bush
Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis
Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis presents a lot of data for quick viewing. Given the changes coming this summer, I wanted to look into the public’s current viewpoints on these 3 key questions.
(Always Questions, Analysis and then Conclusions leading to further questions) QACs System!
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Positional Drafting. Where are the trends, runs, and waves of picks for positions?
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What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Risk?
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What is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings and Risk?
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Positional PPR Drafting in Redrafting
Fig 1 Overview of Recent Positional ADPs
TEs start 3rd. TE2s start 11th round
QBs start in 3rd and QB2s at the 10th round
DEF at PICK 96. Pay high for JAX!
First 2 rounds all RBs and WRs. First Round 9 RBs 3 WRs?
A focus view down into the first 4 rounds
WR 1s last to end of 3rd round. Only 3 WRs taken in the first round!
RBs dominate the first round, Equals in 2nd Round, 3rd we see QB/TEs and 4th round WRs dominate 8/12!
Pattern RB /(RB or WR) /(RB or WR or TE or QB) /WR
WRs pass RBs into 3rd Level of RB/WR. Nice TE and QB being drafted.
1st DEF taken at the 97th pick. All QB1s gone 10th round. 2nd 12 TEs at the end of the 12th round! WR and RBs finished with 5th levels of each.
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Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis:
What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Risk?
A simple listing from high to low public rankings with current risk level (High/AVG/Low)
DEF
PK
QB
RBs
TE
WR
What is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings and Risk?
This is what you have to beat for redraft success! Where is the over/under values?
Ari- Kirk is not valued!
ATL- Ridley not valued well but he is above Sanu!
BAL- The TE is not valued! Jackson the QB also no value but Flaco is not even being selected.
CAR – CJA coming in and the public will do what? Watch list for ADP changes.
DJ Moore is 1/3 the value of Funchess?
CHI – Miller is not valued. Trey Burton is average.
CLE Landry less than Gordon. Chub is risky but worth on 1/2 of the Vets. Late Season Hero? Njoku seems under valued. Public thinks Mayfield takes control sooner than later. He is 5X over Taylor?
Gallup is 1/6 of Hurns? Seems undervalued. He is not going to get at least 1/3 of Hurns in FP?
DEN- Freeman Equal to Booker? Value? Sutton 1/2 of Sanders? Hum? Seems like an achievement he can make- Late season hero?
DET- Golladay 1/8 of Jones? 1/10 of Tate? 2017 Golladay was 8.6 PPR/Game, Jones was 14 PPR/G, and Tate at 14 PPR/G. He was 67% of them not 12%. He should be closer to 38 not 7!
3 Way RBBC? In GB? Public picks TY over Williams and Jones!
JAX- WRs? Low? Moncrief?
Watkins 5/8s of Hill?
LAC- Williams at 4 vs Allen at 91?
Is Cooks 1/3 better than Kupp/Woods?
Gore is at a 0 vs Drake at 77?
Michel into the RBBC. Burkhead better?
Ingram takes a hit. Watchlist for ADP drop. How Much?
Powell 9.8 vs Crowell 12.6 PPR/G in 2017. 2018 Powell is worth 1/8 of Crowell? Seems low.
Clement was 6.5 vs Ajayi 9.9 PPR/G. Clement seems low!
Penny seems like the lead back?
Breida seems low!
Jackson and Barber seem low!
Richardson seems low. Doctson can improve! Gruice is the fourth lead rookie RB.
