Much like my Week 5 picks in College Football, where I went 4-0-1, week 5 for my NFL picks against the spread is the week my picks start going in the right direction. The contenders are starting to become more apparent at the quarter point of the NFL season.
Week 5’s slate isn’t packed full of jaw dropping match ups but there is a few things to watch for in this weeks schedule. Can the Patriots, Saints and Redskins rebound off of bad performances on national television? Will Alex Smith’s home coming be a happy one? Are the Giants hitting their stride? These questions and more will be answered.
>Season Total 7-13
>Upset Alert 0-4
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Atlanta Falcons +4 at New York Giants
I typically don’t like to pick the Falcons on the road, but this game feels like a massive overreaction to results from a week ago. The New York Giants put it on the Washington Redskins on national television. The Falcons went to Minnesota and lost to Teddy Bridgewater and company. The Falcons have a talented offense that can put up big numbers. I expect the Falcons to score enough to keep this game close. Above a field goal is worth the gamble in this match up.
St Louis Rams +7 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are a mess on the offensive line and are missing some key pieces among the front seven. While I love the Eagles offensively, the Rams defense should show up Sunday and look like the dominant force they were in last season, even without Chris Long. Austin Davis will start for the St. Louis Rams, but should be competent enough to move the ball and help the Rams find the end zone.
Washington Redskins +7 vs Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are a good team that plays exceptional at home. When they go on the road, the Seahawks look like a different team. While Kirk Cousins and company looked atrocious against the Giants last Thursday, but I expect them to rebound this week in another primetime performance, this time as a home dog. The Redskins should keep this game close and have a chance to win outright.
New Orleans Saints -10 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I typically hate to take a favorite minus double digit points but this screams a game the Saints will win big. After the Saints being embarrassed on national television and Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a game late against Pittsburgh. The line for this game should be closer to Saints -13 or Saints -14. I expect the Saints to come out firing and look much better with some home cooking. Saints will win this game by double digits.
New England Patriots +1 vs Cincinnati Bengals
As bad as the Patriots have looked and as good as the Bengals have looked before the bye would make most assume the Bengals are the right side for this game. However i typically love to jump on the a home underdog in a primetime game. The Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys both not only covered but won outright. I expect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to look get the Patriots back on track. The line has shifted pretty significantly and the world will be on the Bengals in this game.