2021 Weekly Value Review WR

2021 Weekly Value Review WR. Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so why are we still comparing players by how well they finished in the year-end points? Year-End Points does tell us who stayed healthy all year. However, year-end points will not inform us how well a player added to your Fantasy Football team’s success or failure every week.

Points per game is a slightly better statistical tool than end-of-season points. Unfortunately, the points per game are limited and don’t tell us much about how players acquired those points. For example, it doesn’t show us the Value of most part-time players. This metric uses games where only one snap was received, the same as games where the player played full time.

Therefore, we need a weekly tool that combines a player’s consistency with prominent game ability into one easy-to-use number. That concept is the essence of the Best Ten Statistical Tool, which shows a player’s weekly Value. So let’s look at the data at WR after the 2021 season.

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Calculating Weekly Value

2021 Weekly Value Review of WR using one year of data for Fantasy Football can skew the actual Value of players because someone could have been nursing an injury yet playing all season. My Weekly Value metric removes games missed due to injury and partial matches from the mix by only playing full games. (30 Snap minimum for WR). Next, I use a two-year rolling window, so we compare “Apples to Oranges” by looking at a player’s year-end total from only one year. The comparison of present and future “Weekly Value” is what we are revealing statistically.

Firstly, a player’s highest game is removed from consideration. Next, only about one-third of a player’s full games over the past two seasons combined are considered in the calculations. Finally, WRs are graded with a typical Points Per Game (PPR) scoring system with 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards gained, and 6 points for any touchdown. In addition, two points are deducted for each lost fumble.

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WR Weekly Values After 2021

Davante Adams was the undisputed king of weekly Value at the WR position beating the competition by over 4 points. I have established that 3 points are considered an entire tier in ratings. Thus Adams is alone at the top and posted an impressive 97% consistency to a 10 point PPR floor over the past two seasons combined.

Tyreek Hill beat Cooper Kupp for 2nd place, with Deebo Samuel and Justin Jefferson rounding out the top five. One interesting curiosity in the data is that Tyler Lockett is 6th place in weekly Value but has a horrible consistency rating of 59%.

Next, Adam Thielen came in at 7th, with impressive rookie Ja’Marr Chase in 8th, fellow rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown and AJ Brown rounding out the top ten. Dynasty players note that four rookies ended up in the Top 25 in Weekly Value last season. (J Chase 8th, Amon at 9th, Waddle 15th, and Elijah Moore 24th)

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Player	Team	Best 10	Consistency	Age	21 Total	PPG	21ADP
Adams	GB	34.6	97	30	2	2	1
Hill	KC	30.3	81	28	6	8	2
Kupp	LAR	29.1	88	29	1	1	19
Samuel	SF	28.9	95	26	3	3	35
Jefferson	Min	27.4	81	23	4	5	8
Lockett	Sea	26.6	59	30	16	19	20
Thielan	Min	26	65	32	28	17	18
J Chase	Cin	25.6	77	22	5	6	26
ASB	Det	24.8	60	23	22	31	66
AJ Brown	Ten	24.7	65	25	33	28	7
Diggs	Buf	24.5	94	29	7	11	3
An Brown	TB	24.5	83	34	59	9	36
Hopkins	AZ	24.3	81	30	45	21	5
D Johnson	Pit	24.1	89	26	8	10	22
Waddle	Mia	24	69	24	12	15	44
Evans	TB	23.8	74	29	9	12	11
Godwin	TB	23.6	77	26	13	7	14
Ridley	Atl	23.4	95	28	102	26	6
Metcalf	Sea	23.4	76	25	15	24	4
Woods	LAR	23.3	72	30	52	20	15
B Cooks	Hou	22.9	70	29	20	23	39
McLaurin	Was	22.9	66	27	25	33	10
M Williams	LAC	22.6	54	28	14	18	45
E Moore	NYJ	22.3	67	22	50	34	60
K Allen	LAC	22	90	30	11	13	9
Fuller	Mia	21.5	82	28	187	142	47
DJ Moore	Car	21.2	66	25	17	27	21
Lamb	Dal	21.1	68	23	19	22	12
Cooper	Dal	20.6	73	28	27	30	17
Wilson	Dal	20.5	50	27	46	59	150
Smith-Schuster	Pit	20.4	60	26	132	87	31
Higgins	Cin	20.3	71	23	24	14	27
C Davis	NYJ	20.3	64	27	69	37	41
D Smith	Phl	20.2	50	24	29	44	33
Beckham	Lar	20	53	30	55	58	25
M Jones	Jax	20	49	32	34	46	54
Gage	Atl	19.8	55	26	37	38	59
Aiyuk	SF	19.7	61	24	35	49	23
Crowder	NYJ	19.7	52	29	68	60	72
C Samuel	Was	19.6	60	26	177	166	52
Robinson	Chi	19.6	57	29	84	85	13
Shephard	NYG	19.4	73	29	98	42	62
Pittman	Ind	19.4	47	25	18	29	43
MVS	GB	19.4	31	28	81	81	69
Kirk	AZ	19.3	55	26	26	35	75
Mooney	Chi	19.3	50	25	23	32	53
Renfrow	LV	19.2	62	27	10	16	106
Landry	Cle	19.1	58	30	51	40	40
M Brown	Bal	19.1	56	25	21	25	49
Boyd	Cin	19	63	28	31	39	37
Chark	Jax	19	50	26	135	66	38
J Jones	Ten	19	46	33	93	76	16
Beasley	Buf	18.9	55	33	40	51	55
Claypool	Pit	18.8	57	24	38	41	24
Lazard	GB	18.6	40	27	48	55	74
Sanders	Buf	18.5	58	35	54	56	76
Meyers	NE	18.4	57	26	30	43	57
Cobb	GB	18.4	47	32	75	75	67
Sutton	Den	18.4	22	27	44	64	32
Parker	Mia	18.2	62	29	71	47	56
M Thomas	NO	18	57	29	NA	NA	28
R Moore	AZ	18	36	22	64	80	63
Bourne	NE	17.8	46	27	32	45	122
Toney	NYG	17.7	38	23	88	72	77
Osborn	Min	17.4	44	25	39	57	150
Peoples-Jones	Cle	17.4	42	23	63	77	83
Anderson	Car	17.2	55	29	49	73	34
Raymond	Det	16.8	33	28	53	71	150
G Davis	Buf	16.4	52	23	58	79	58
Golladay	NYG	16.2	41	29	79	94	29
Harris	NO	16	88	25	61	63	112
Jennings	SF	16	43	25	90	107	150
Pringle	KC	16	32	29	57	82	85
Green	AZ	15.9	56	34	41	52	65
Agholor	NE	15.9	38	29	72	88	58
Westbrook-Ikhine	Ten	15.7	44	25	65	91	150
Jefferson	LAR	15.7	40	26	36	50	124
Jeudy	Den	15.6	48	23	83	68	30
Ward	Phl	15.6	33	27	133	163	150
Guyton	LAC	15.6	22	25	73	96	130
B Berrios	NYJ	15.5	69	27	60	84	150
Patrick	Den	15.4	53	29	42	53	111
Palmer	LAC	15.3	50	23	76	101	79
Gallup	Dal	15.3	44	26	77	48	50
D Jackson	LV	15.3	44	36	97	111	103
Hardman	KC	15.3	39	24	47	67	48
Callaway	NO	15.3	33	24	43	61	46
Zaccheaus	Atl	15.2	25	25	78	105	105
Hilton	Ind	14.8	46	33	99	83	73
Shenaut	Jax	14.6	43	24	56	74	42
J Reynolds	Det	14.6	35	27	91	92	110
Bateman	Bal	14.3	50	23	70	65	71
Cephus	Det	14.3	46	24	123	54	109
Washington	Pit	14.3	38	26	110	117	127
Higgins	Cle	14.3	33	28	114	131	114
Slayton	NYG	14.3	32	26	103	103	84
C Sims	Was	14.3	20	26	120	139	129
T Smith	NO	13.9	30	26	80	78	78
Z Jones	LV	13.5	39	27	67	95	150
Watkins	Bal	13.3	39	29	100	100	86
Edwards	LV	13.2	32	24	66	90	61
Campbell	Ind	13	33	25	139	102	81
Q Watkins	Phl	12.6	18	24	62	93	150
Treadwell	Jax	12.5	63	27	89	89	150
Swain	Sea	12.2	24	24	82	109	150
Pascal	Ind	12.2	22	28	74	98	116
Robinson	KC	11.3	31	28	105	125	150
Humphries	Was	11.3	23	29	94	115	150
Collins	Hou	10.7	14	23	86	97	82
Reagor	Phl	10.3	16	23	96	116	70
Ty Johnson	TB	10	14	24	101	121	150
Sharpe	Atl	7.7	10	28	121	143	150
T Marshall	Car	6.5	0	22	140	158	64
D Brown	Was	6.5	0	23	145	169	120

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Most Significant Differences to Year-End Totals

An injury led to Adam Thielen having the most significant difference between Year-End and Weekly Value. However, he did see a decline in the Points per Game Data but not in Weekly Value. Remember that I consider Weekly Value within a two-year time frame for calculations to account for missed games or playing hurt. Therefore, a two-year window better represents a player’s actual weekly Value. Interestingly, with Thielen hitting his age of 32, his drop may indicate the start of a decline.

Another difference with my metrics was based on the Inconsistency in the last two seasons of Tyler Lockett. Lockett was so strong in Weekly Value but is much lower in Year-End and Points per Game calculations due to his Inconsistency. Lockett also seems to miss points to pass interference calls more than the league norm, but more study is needed to confirm that hypothesis.

Next, an injury cost AJ Brown a better Year-End Total, and Amon-Ra St. Brown did not get regular volume early in his rookie year. Still, Amon-Ra St. Brown was high in Weekly Value at 9th place but only 22nd in Year-End Points.

Finally, an injury also robbed DeAndre Hopkins of higher rankings. Additionally, Mental Health issues kept Calvin Ridley from being higher in Year-End Points.

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2021 Weekly Value Review WR and Comparison to Average Draft Position

Quite often, the Consensus in Fantasy Football is wrong. This idea isn’t isolated to Fantasy Sports either it applies to any sport. In horse racing, we call the “Consensus” the betting favorite. People who are risking good money telling you who the best horse in the field is are wrong 2 out of every three races. Therefore, don’t be afraid to go against the Consensus.

The Consensus got the first two WRs right last year with Adams and Hill but struggled to select the next group of WR. Interestingly in 2021 ADP, Cooper Kupp wasn’t even drafted as a WR1 yet finished with more Year-End Points than anyone else at the WR position by over 90 points. Kupp also finished WR3 in Weekly Value.

My Weekly Value projections had Kupp forecast as WR10 last season, nine spots higher than his ADP. Other players of note were Deebo Samuel, who was the most significant gift at the WR position the previous year with an ADP of 35th, finishing WR3 in Year-End Points and WR4 in Weekly Value.

In 2021, DK Metcalf didn’t live up to his ADP expectation of WR4, finishing 15th in Year-End Points, 24th in Points per Game, and WR19 in Weekly Value. Cee Dee Lamb was another disappointment last year with his ADP of 12th but a Year-End Total of 19th, Points per Game of 22nd, and a Weekly Value of 28th. Lamb’s Inconsistency is why he scores so low in Weekly Value despite being such an explosive player on some weeks.

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Gaining Weekly Value

Cooper Kupp was expected to perform better with a change in QB last year and was an impressive 25% higher in weekly Value. Most players in the NFL, once establishing their Weekly Value stay within 10% of that total for the rest of their career until starting their decline as they get older.

The most significant increase in Weekly Value at WR was Deebo Samuel, who was up over 50% from the previous two-year window! Showing how “Sticky” the Weekly Value statistical tool can be, only Mike Williams (40%) joined Kupp and Samuel, increasing over 25% among full-time players in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

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Losing Weekly Value

Declines in WR occur as well. The most significant reduction in Weekly Value among the Top 25 WRs were teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, along with Keenan Allen, around 9% each. Amari Cooper, who finished 27th in Year-End Points and 29th in Weekly Value, also declined.

Marvin Jones (11% drop) was the only WR with a decline over 10% in the Top 40 in Weekly Values. One of the other large drops was Allen Robinson falling 17% down to a career-low in Weekly Value of WR41. Every further decline was less than 10%, showing how “sticky” the Weekly Value Statistical tool is once players have a few years to develop a baseline rating.

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2021 Weekly Value Review WR Conclusion

Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so we need to find better ways to establish a player’s weekly Value. My weekly value tool, Best 10, was based on over 30 years of data analysis. I worked on my research to learn how stats are scored every week, affecting fantasy football wins and losses.

Weekly values better show us who had the most significant impact on our Fantasy teams versus Year-End Points, which only tell us who stayed healthy! Improperly used Points per Game are just as bad unless we only look at full games. Best ten attempts to combine prominent game ability with consistency to come up with an easy to compare number among players.

Today we learned that the Weekly Value at the WR position is very accurate, with very few players varying more than 10% from their Value once they have a few years to develop a baseline value. We also learned that the Consensus was wrong on quite a few players at the WR position after getting the top 2 correct. Finally, rookies did quite well last season, with four reaching the Top 25 at the position in Weekly Value even though ADP didn’t expect any to be in the top 25.

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Don’t forget to listen to the “Science of Fantasy Football” podcast every week and check out Professor John Bush’s lesson plans at the Professor’s Classroom here at Fakepigskin that dig deep into statistical evaluation.

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