2021 Weekly Value Review RB

2021 Weekly Value Review RB. Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so why are we still comparing players by how well they finished in the year-end points? Year-End Points tell us who stayed healthy all year but very little on how well a player added to your Fantasy Football team’s success or failure every week.

Interestingly, Points per Game is a slightly better statistical tool than end-of-season points, but that metric is limited and doesn’t tell us much about how players acquired those points. For example, it doesn’t show us the Value of most part-time players because it uses games where only one snap was received the same as games where the player played full time.

Therefore, we need a weekly tool that combines a player’s consistency with prominent game ability into one easy-to-use number. That is the essence of the Best Ten Statistical tool, which attempts to show a player’s weekly Value. So let’s look at the data at RB after the 2021 season.

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CALCULATING WEEKLY VALUE

2021 Weekly Value Review of RB using one year of data for Fantasy Football can skew the actual Value of players because someone could have been nursing an injury yet playing all season. My Weekly Value removes games missed due to injury and partial matches from the mix by only playing full games. (20 Snap minimum for RB) I use a two-year rolling window, so yes, we are comparing “Apples to Oranges” by looking at a player’s year-end total from only one year, but the comparison of present and future “Weekly Value” is what we are attempting to show statistically. As RB use has changed in the NFL, I have adjusted what counts as a “Full Game” for RBs, reducing the number to 20 snaps from 30.

A player’s highest Game is removed from consideration, and only about one-third of a player’s full games over the past two seasons combined are considered in the calculations. RBs are graded with a typical Points Per Game (PPR) scoring system with 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards gained, and 6 points for any touchdown. In addition, two points are deducted for each lost fumble.

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RB Weekly Values After 2021

By four points, Derrick Henry retained his position as the top RB in Fantasy Football. Since 3 points define a tier in Weekly Values, this is a huge advantage. Keep in mind that weekly values discount injuries, and this is just a snapshot look at weekly Value over the past two years, not a forecast for 2022 and beyond. Henry’s consistency rating of a floor of 10 points or more PPR was a solid 78%.

Alvin Kamara is second-best in weekly Value, 1.2 points ahead of Jonathan Taylor, who increased by more than 30% in Value during his sophomore season. Kamara and JT have better consistency ratings than The King, well over 80%. Joe Mixon also saw a 30% jump in weekly Value to fourth place, with Dalvin Cook rounding out the top five. As you can see on the chart below, the drop-off in weekly Value at RB gets much smaller as it goes down the chart, showing that after the Elite 5 or 6, it gets tougher to show a big difference in weekly Value RB.

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2021 Weekly Value Review RB Chart

2021 Weekly Value Review RB chart shows that consistency alone in Fantasy Football at the RB position is not enough to judge a player’s Value to your Fantasy team properly. For example, de Edwards Hillaire has one of the very best consistency ratings at a 74% rate of a 10 point floor in PPR points (20th best), but his weekly Value is only RB50. So perhaps the weekly value chart lets us know that AFTER acquiring one Top 6 RB, we might be better off focusing on elite players at other positions.

Player	Team	Best 10	Consistency	Age	21 Total	21 PPG	21ADP
Henry	Ten	33.4	79	28	22	1	3
Kamara	NO	29.4	86	27	9	6	4
Taylor	Ind	28.2	84	23	1	2	9
Mixon	Cin	27.3	73	26	4	7	19
Cook	Min	27.2	85	27	16	11	2
Ekeler	LAC	26.5	89	27	2	3	15
Penny	Sea	25.5	80	26	42	26	174
CMC	Car	25.5	89	26	39	5	1
Chubb	Cle	25.4	75	27	13	12	6
Montgomery	Chi	24.7	76	25	19	15	27
Swift	Det	24.4	79	23	15	10	39
Harris	Pit	24.2	71	24	14	8	10
Fornette	TB	23.8	72	27	6	4	79
Mattison	Min	23.3	89	24	37	54	140
A Jones	GB	22.8	83	28	11	13	7
Conner	Az	22.6	74	27	5	9	92
Wilson	SF	22.5	54	27	79	74	318
J Robinson	Jax	22.4	85	24	24	23	32
E Mitchell	SF	22.3	64	24	26	16	248
AJ Dillon	GB	22	64	24	23	36	89
M Carter	NYJ	22	56	23	29	35	95
D Johnson	Cle	22	33	26	53	58	420
K Hunt	Cle	21.3	58	27	50	22	49
Elliott	Dal	21	72	27	7	19	5
Gibson	Was	21	68	24	8	17	17
Carson	Sea	20.8	87	28	81	25	29
Jacobs	LV	20.7	83	24	12	14	28
Barkley	NYG	20.3	54	25	30	31	10
Perine	Cin	20.3	50	27	62	76	334
Patterson	Atl	20.2	61	31	10	18	247
J Williams	Den	20	53	22	17	27	61
Gaskin	Mia	19.7	70	25	25	41	45
D Harris	NE	19.6	67	25	14	20	63
Michel	LAR	19.4	64	27	31	49	105
Gainwell	Phl	19	71	23	40	56	186
Stevenson	NE	19	44	24	47	44	144
D Johnson	Mia	19	33	29	72	30	420
M Gordon	Den	18.9	61	29	18	24	70
Dobbins	Bal	18.8	57	24	NA	NA	NA
McKissic	Was	18.7	48	29	38	32	143
Akers	LAR	18.5	57	23	142	92	NA
Herbert	Chi	18.5	50	24	63	84	409
D Henderson	LAR	18.5	55	25	27	21	58
Singletary	Buf	18.2	52	25	20	33	99
R Jones	TB	18	73	25	61	78	76
Sanders	Phl	17.9	52	25	46	43	35
D Williams	KC	17.6	50	27	21	34	198
Drake	LV	17.6	67	28	55	51	109
Hines	Ind	17.6	55	26	48	62	136
CEH	KC	17.5	74	23	44	29	22
J Williams	Det	17.4	40	27	43	46	111
Freeman	Bal	16.8	56	30	32	45	420
Bolden	NE	16.7	56	32	41	57	420
M Davis	Atl	16.7	53	29	34	50	52
Ahmed	Mia	16.7	50	24	89	113	227
Scott	Phl	16.5	44	27	56	42	244
Edmunds	Az	16.4	62	26	33	28	62
Foreman	Ten	16	57	26	57	37	420
Abdullah	Car	16	25	29	58	72	355
D Johnson	Hou	16	59	31	60	67	112
Ingrahm	NO	16	58	33	49	55	169
Pollard	Dal	15.8	44	25	28	39	126
Hubbard	Car	15.7	22	23	36	52	165
Breida	Buf	15.5	40	27	87	82	354
D Williams	Chi	15.5	75	30	69	81	202
T Johnson	NYJ	15.4	32	25	45	59	214
L Murray	Bal	15.4	31	32	54	60	156
G Edwards	Bal	15.3	36	27	NA	NA	64
C Evans	Cin	15	100	25	84	98	420
Booker	NYG	15	56	30	35	47	199
Howard	Phl	15	33	28	68	48	420
Jackson	LAC	14.7	67	27	59	63	238
Gore	KC	14.5	100	28	73	70	420
Ogunabowale	Jax	14.5	67	28	82	96	420
J Patteron	Was	14	100	23	74	104	247
Moss	Buf	13.1	48	25	51	53	90
Vaughan	TB	12.5	60	25	90	71	336
McNichols	Ten	11.3	17	27	66	77	420
T Coleman	NYJ	9.5	17	29	77	87	146

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MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE TO YEAR-END TOTALS

The usually injured Rashaad Penny put together a nice string of games at the end of the season to establish a weekly value in the Top 10. Penny is a classic example of Points per Game watering down a player’s Value when part-time games with only a few snaps are included in the calculations. We also get a vivid example that Year End Points mainly tell us who stayed healthy all season, with Ezekiel Elliott finishing RB6 in Year-End Points but only RB24 in Weekly Value.

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COMPARISON TO AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION

Quite often, the consensus in Fantasy Football is wrong. This idea isn’t isolated to Fantasy Sports either it applies in any sport. In horse racing, we call the “Consensus” the betting favorite. People who are risking good money telling you who the best horse in the field is are wrong 2 out of every three races, so don’t be afraid to go against the consensus.

Last year, Joe Mixon was the most prominent “Gift” in Fantasy Football at the RB position. However, he was being faded due to the perception of being an injury concern and was ADP19 (Average Draft Position). Mixon finished RB4 in weekly Value, 4th in Year-End Points, and 7th in PPG.

Leonard Fornette was another player whose consensus was down on that weekly values was high last year. Fornette finished RB13 in weekly Value, 6th in Year-End Points, and 4th in PPG. David Montgomery was another weekly value guy who went way too late at an ADP of 27th. Monty finished RB10 in Weekly Value, 19th in Year-End Points, and 15th in PPG.

Ezekiel Elliott was one of the most over-drafted RBs in the first round last year with an ADP of 5th. His apologists will point at a Year-End Value of RB6, but that shows he stayed healthy. His Weekly Value was only RB24, and he finished 19th in PPG. Saquon Barkley was also over-drafted last year’s early rounds with an ADP of 10. His Weekly Value was only RB28, RB30th in Year-End Points, and only RB31 in PPG.

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GAINING WEEKLY VALUE

Jonathan Taylor had the most significant change in Weekly Value, surging over 30%. Second-year players with no change in volume traditionally increase by 10%, and the 30% increase was close to my forecast based on the expected volume increase. Joe Mixon was another RB who showed a considerable increase of around 30%. Mixon’s massive increase in TDs was a big part of his increase, but he still has room for the upside. Finally, Andrew Swift was another player who saw a significant surge in his Weekly Value, which was impressive because Mixon’s volume was still limited to the upside last year. Swift is another player that I would expect more improvement from next season as that offense improves.

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LOSING WEEKLY VALUE

Christian McCaffery led the elite RBs in a decline in Weekly Value last year. Weekly Value removes injuries from the equation, so the drop was due to a slight decrease in volume and offensive inconsistency when he was healthy. Aaron Jones had a significant reduction in Weekly Value as AJ Dillon started to take away opportunities as expected. Jones’ decrease of over 20% was close to my preseason forecast. Miles Sanders was another of the Top 35 RBs in ADP who saw a significant decline of 15%. My prediction of a 10% increase in volume was one of my worst forecasts heading into the 2021 season.

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2021 WEEKLY VALUE REVIEW RB CONCLUSION

Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so we need to find better ways to establish a player’s weekly Value. My weekly value tool, Best 10, was based on over 30 years of data analysis to learn how stats are scored every week, affecting fantasy football wins and losses.

Weekly values better show us who had the most significant impact on our Fantasy teams versus Year-End Points, which only tell us who stayed healthy! Improperly used Points per Game are just as bad unless we only look at full games. Best ten attempts to combine prominent game ability with consistency to come up with an easy to compare number among players.

Today we learned that there are very few elite RBs but lots of very good RBs. The NFL trend towards more backfield sharing and more specialty situation RBs has changed how RBs impact our Fantasy Football teams. Gone are the days of 10-15 reliable “Bell Cow RBs” and needing to start Redraft leagues with two of the top RBs to win your league. Have we reached the point where we can justify starting BOTH RBs on the same team? More research is needed before we can reliably make that conclusion.

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Don’t forget to listen to the “Science of Fantasy Football” podcast every week and check out Professor John Bush’s lesson plans at the Professor’s Classroom here at Fakepigskin that dig deep into statistical evaluation.

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Science of Fantasy Podcast 28

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Professor’s Classroom Lesson 108