2021 Weekly Value Review QB. Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so why are we still comparing players by how well they finished in the year-end points? Year-End Points do a great job of telling us who stayed healthy all year but very little on how well a player added to your Fantasy Football team’s success or failure every week.
Interestingly, Points per Game is a slightly better statistical tool than end-of-season points, but again that metric is limited and doesn’t tell us much about how those points were acquired. Even worse, it doesn’t show us the value of most part-time players because it uses games where only one snap was received the same as games where the player played full time.
Therefore, we need a weekly tool that combines a player’s consistency with prominent game ability into one easy-to-use number. That is the essence of the Best Ten Statistical tool, which attempts to show a player’s weekly value. So let’s look at the data at QB after the 2021 season.
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Calculating Weekly Value
2021 Weekly Value Review of QB using one year of data for Fantasy Football can skew the actual value of players because someone could have been nursing an injury yet playing all season. My Weekly Value removes games missed due to injury and partial matches from the mix by only playing full games. (40 Snap minimum for QB) I use a two-year rolling window, so yes, we are comparing “Apples to Oranges” by looking at a player’s year-end total from only one year, but the comparison of present and future “Weekly Value” is what we are attempting to show statistically.
A player’s highest Game is removed from consideration, and only about one-third of a player’s full games over the past two seasons combined are considered in the calculations. QBs are graded with 6 points for all TDs, whether passing or rushing, with -2 points for turnovers. The consistency threshold for QBs is 25 points.
QB Weekly Values after 2021
Josh Allen took over as QB1 from Patrick Mahomes after the 2021 season, but it is close with only 1.2 points separating the two players. (3 points difference is considered a “Tier” for weekly value) Mahomes still beats Allen on Consistency, so he has a more predictable “Floor” even with five of his worst six career games all coming last season.
As you can see on the chart below, there is a relatively quick drop-off in both weekly value and consistency after the top 7. QB12 gives you a weekly value deficit of 9.4 points versus Josh Allen and 8.3 points to Mahomes. At first glance, because I use a two-year window, you might think Matthew Stafford’s weekly value and consistency might be diluted because of one year of data when he was with the Lions. Stafford’s weekly value increased by 15% from his 2020 number his consistency remained very close with seven games under 25 points. Over the past two seasons combined, only Mahamoes (78%) and Aaron Rodgers (84%) scored 25 or more points at least 7 out of every ten games. Maybe with this data in mind, we need to draft QBs earlier, even in one QB league.
| Player | Team | Best 10 | Consistency | Age | 21 Total | 21 PPG | 21 ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Allen | Buf | 42.8 | 64 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mahomes | KC | 41.6 | 78 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Brady | TB | 41.1 | 64 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Prescott | Dal | 40 | 67 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Herbert | LAC | 40 | 63 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Murray | AZ | 39.2 | 66 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 3 |
| Rodgers | GB | 39.2 | 84 | 39 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| Burrow | Cin | 37.4 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Stafford | LAR | 36.8 | 50 | 34 | 5 | 11 | 10 |
| Wilson | Sea | 36.8 | 57 | 34 | 18 | 13 | 6 |
| Hurts | Phl | 35.5 | 42 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| L Jackson | Bal | 34.9 | 50 | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 |
| Cousins | Min | 33.4 | 58 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 19 |
| Tannehill | Ten | 33.2 | 33 | 34 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| Winston | NO | 32.7 | 33 | 28 | 32 | 16 | 20 |
| Ryan | Atl | 32.1 | 31 | 37 | 17 | 28 | 15 |
| Mills | Hou | 32 | 30 | 24 | 29 | 37 | 50 |
| Heinecke | WAS | 31.3 | 29 | 29 | 20 | 24 | 50 |
| Mayfield | Cle | 30.6 | 21 | 27 | 25 | 30 | 16 |
| Newton | Car | 30.4 | 41 | 33 | 37 | 43 | 37 |
| Carr | LV | 30.3 | 46 | 31 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
| Tua | Mia | 30 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 23 |
| Goff | Det | 29.9 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 23 | 41 |
| Lock | Den | 29.5 | 27 | 26 | 42 | 48 | 34 |
| Big Ben | Pitt | 29.1 | 36 | 40 | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| M Jones | NE | 29 | 24 | 24 | 19 | 29 | 22 |
| D Jones | NYG | 28.6 | 17 | 25 | 28 | 18 | 30 |
| T Hill | NO | 28 | 50 | 32 | 33 | 47 | 29 |
| Jimmy G | SF | 28 | 28 | 31 | 16 | 17 | 43 |
| Wentz | Ind | 27.9 | 31 | 30 | 14 | 19 | 28 |
| Bridgewater | Den | 27.3 | 35 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 42 |
| Darnold | Car | 26.6 | 21 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 31 |
| Lawrence | Jax | 26 | 12 | 23 | 22 | 33 | 14 |
| Z Wilson | NYJ | 25.7 | 17 | 23 | 30 | 39 | 26 |
| Fields | Chi | 25.3 | 10 | 23 | 31 | 40 | 17 |
| Lance | SF | 25 | 67 | 22 | 40 | 44 | 18 |
Most Significant Difference to Year-End Totals
Kyler Murray’s injury dropped him to 11th best in Year-End Points despite being QB6 in weekly value. Russell Wilson was another QB underrepresented by year-end stats finishing 18th despite posting the 10th best weekly value. Matthew Stafford posted the fifth-best year-end total on the other end of the spectrum, but he was only QB9 in weekly value despite increasing 15% on his weekly value in one season. Kirk Cousins posted 9th best in year-end points but was only 13th best in weekly value and had a disappointing consistency of only 58%. Points per Game did a better job than year-end points at showing value at the QB position.
Comparison to Average Draft Position
Quite often, the consensus in Fantasy Football is wrong. This idea isn’t isolated to Fantasy Sports either it applies in any sport. In horse racing, we call the “Consensus” the betting favorite. People who are risking good money telling you who the best horse in the field is are wrong 2 out of every three races, so don’t be afraid to go against the consensus.
The most prominent mistake fantasy players made in 2021 was drafting Lamar Jackson as QB4. As a result, his weekly value dropped by 13% in one year to a weekly discount of QB12. The only other QBs that were over-drafted in redraft Fantasy Football last year were Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. Lawrence was drafted QB14 and finished QB33 in weekly value, with Lance drafted QB18 and spending QB36 with Fields drafted QB17 and finishing QB35 in weekly value. Kirk Cousins was the best value, being drafted QB19 and finishing QB13 in weekly value.
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Gaining Weekly Value
In the NFL, players are usually gaining or losing value over time. When it comes to weekly value, it’s essential to chart those changes before forecasting the future. Because my weekly value statistical tool uses a two-year rolling average, most players stay within 5-10% of their established value most years. Any change more significant than 10% is worth noting specifically when a trend, either up or down, has been established.
Although my weekly value tool predicted his rise, Josh Allen made a considerable jump in weekly value from 2019 to 2020. Allen made another significant jump of just over 10% from 2020 to 2021. Another QB who made a considerable jump was Tom Brady, up another 13% after jumping 17% between 2019 to 2020. This year, Joe Burrow also made a substantial jump up over 23% from his injury-shortened season. Since my weekly value tool removes injuries from hurting a player’s value, this was a considerable change. As mentioned earlier, another big gainer in weekly value was Stafford, up 15%. Jalen Hurts was the only other big gainer up 17%, but his weekly value still only rose to QB11 and is over 7 points behind the top at the position.
Losing Weekly Value
Russell Wilson lost just over 10% in weekly value after the 2021 season after losing around 5% the previous year. His consistency rating continues to fall too. Will the change of scenery in Denver stop the decline? As I mentioned earlier, another big loser in weekly value was Lamar Jackson dropping around 13%. His rushing yards took a significant reduction, as did his rushing TDs. Whether this was a one-year drop or a trend is unknown. However, those were the only declines of over 10% at the QB position.
2021 Weekly Value Review QB Conclusion
Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so we need to find better ways to establish a player’s weekly value. My weekly value tool, Best 10, was based on over 30 years of data analysis to learn more about how stats are scored every week, affecting fantasy football wins and losses.
2021 Weekly Value Review QB and their associated Year-End Points only tell us who stayed healthy! Improperly used Points per Game are just as bad unless we only look at full games played. Best ten attempts to combine prominent game ability with consistency to come up with an easy to compare number among players. Today we learned that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the clear QB1 and QB2 as we head into the 2021 season. We also learned how fast the weekly value drops at the QB position. In later articles, I will present the data at the other positions and introduce my “Position Scarcity Index” that was Beta tested last season.
Don’t forget to listen to the “Science of Fantasy Football” podcast every week and check out Professor John Bush’s lesson plans at the Professor’s Classroom here at Fakepigskin that dig deep into statistical evaluation.
