Week 16 NFL Picks and Prop

Happy Holidays everyone and welcome to Week 16 of the NFL season. Normally we are prepping for the playoffs, wondering who will sit and playing DFS with the vast majority of our fantasy leagues in the books. But, Week 16 is just a precursor to a precursor. For all intents and purposes it Christmas Eve Eve.

The Covid cases still run wild having a sizable impact in game spreads and totals. Staying ahead of the news and jumping on value when you see it is key to a winning week. Not that I can tell you about that after going 0-3 last week. It has been a rough stretch as of late but I am still a handful of games over .500.

Aaron on the other hand has been, as Dylan would say, “Hot fire!” after a 3-0 Week 15.

For Week 16 we have 6 ATS picks for your consideration. Feel free to follow or fade as you see fit. Let’s make some money and help pay for some of these holiday expenses.

Kyle

Week: 0-3

Season: 22-18-1

Aaron

Last Week: 3-0

Season: 30-12-0

Aaron’s Week 16 Picks

You’re reading that right… 30 wins to only 12 losses on the season on my written picks. If I was a better self-marketer, I would look into selling subscriptions to these picks… but I’m not, so they will remain free!

My top pick last week was the Bengals +3 who ended up beating the Broncos in an ugly, 15-0 game. There were multiple factors that pointed me to pick that game, but their ATS record/pattern was by far the most satisfying.

Next up was the Saints +11.5 against Tom Brady and the Bucs. Unless you had Sunday night plans, you likely witnessed this afternoon nap of a game. Needless to say, the Saints easily covered this game by shutting out the Bucs 9-0.

Finally, I gave you all a 3-game teaser valued at +160… that’s my biggest hit of the year odds-wise in these written picks. The Rams, Niners, and Texans all not only won their games, but covered with diminished spreads.

This week is another COVID-filled bonanza so please check the injury/COVID news before the games as lines could change drastically between time of writing and kickoff for impacted teams.

Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 @ Houston Texans

The Texans are one of the worst teams in the league and are coming off a “big win” last week over Jacksonville. At this point in the season, none of the bottom 5 teams truly want to win their games. The players do, but the inherent motivation to win goes out the window.

The Chargers are still battling to show the world who they are this season and what they could do with a chance at a playoff run. Austin Ekeler appears to be out for this game between COVID and/or his injury, but I don’t think that matters much. If anything, Justin Herbert is able to air it out a bit more and get a huge lead on the Texans.

From the Houston side, I really don’t see them scoring more than 10 points in this game. LA has a run-funnel defense which forces teams to run the ball, while focusing on shutting down the pass. Houston has not been hesitant to run he ball this year but they have the worst yards per carry in the league. Couple that with them likely playing from behind early and this one could get ugly very quick!

Pick: Chargers -9.5

Cleveland Browns +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been on fire recently and that’s exactly why I’m on the other side here. Five or six weeks ago I think this line would have been -3.5 to Green Bay. While Cleveland has struggled a bit recently, most of it has been due to injuries and/or COVID. This is still an extremely talented team that should be close to full-strength for this game.

Meanwhile, from Green Bay, MVS will likely miss this game. Early on in the season that wouldn’t have mattered but he has been an integral part of this team’s offense’s dynamic breakout recently. They have both Davante Adams and MVS stretching the field, with A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones pounding the rock up the field.

I don’t know if I’m ready to call an upset in this one up in Lambeau, but it’s a possibility. It’s far more possible that this game stays close and the Packers win by 3-7 points. Lay the points with a still very good team in Cleveland.

Pick: Browns +7.5

Carolina Panthers +10.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Back to back weeks going against Tom Brady… feelin’ a little risky this holiday season. Most of my logic here remains the same: this is a divisional game, getting double-digit points as the home team, and these teams know each other well. Cam Newton has really showed us Jekyll & Hyde recently, so my faith isn’t in him for this game.

Ron Rivera came out and called Cam the starter, but also said Sam Darnold would play. To me, that’s saying Cam will officially “start” but will pulled as quickly as needed for the big-money man Darnold. Cam should still get the goal line touches as he’s uber-efficient down there, so I’m not worried about them struggling to score.

Tom Brady will be down his #1a weapon in Chris Godwin for this game. Additionally, Antonio Brown could be making his return from both a bad ankle sprain and COVID. Brady and AB had quite the connection going on before the injury, but I would bet that it doesn’t come fully back the first week of his return.

There’s a reason why this is my 3^rd pick… it’s the least confident. Other picks I’m considering this week, but just don’t feel confident in: Raiders ML, Steelers +10, and Colts +1.

Pick: Panthers +10.5

Kyle’s Week 16 Picks

Minnesota Vikings +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams are a team finding their form of late. Utilizing the running game and letting play-action work off of it. And yet, I am going to fade them a bit this week. They come into this game off back to back divisional wins. Now they are playing on an extremely short week after facing Seattle on Tuesday.

On the other side is a Vikings team who has won and covered two straight. They are without Dalvin Cook this week which has helped this line move from 3 to 3.5. In steps Alexander Mattison who can be just as impressive as Cook.

I expect Minnesota to play incredibly for 3.5 quarters and have the game in hand only to give the game away in the closing moments. I will be looking to live bet the Rams ML once they are trailing. Rams win, Vikings cover, we win all the money. Take those points while they are there.

Pick: Vikings +3.5

Buffalo Bills +2.5 at New England Patriots

Once again I will line up to fade an overvalued New England side who is a good team but far from the Super Bowl favorites some people were making them out to be.

Buffalo enters this game in a much better spot for what they want to do, in large part avoiding the 50 MPH winds from the Monday Night contest a few weeks back.

While they were unable to seal the deal against Tampa Bay 2 weeks ago, it seems Buffalo has found their old form. They have a plethora of weapons to take advantage of the Patriots defense.

I also expect the Buffalo defense to replicate much of what made Indianapolis potent defensively a week ago. Getting pressure on Mac Jones and slowing the run game will be critical.

If the Bills can’t get a W in this contest, it will be clear that we were too quick to anoint them. But I believe in Josh Allen and the BIlls. Clearly the sports books do as well as Buffalo is still one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy in February.

Pick: Bills +2.5

Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs Baltimore Ravens

I can’t believe I am doing this for a 3rd straight week but here we are. The Ravens 4th quarter magic has not been kind to me or my wallet over the past 2 weeks. Two weeks ago, it was Cleveland who had a 24-6 lead at the half and appeared to be cruising to cover town. They failed to score in the 2nd half and blew the cover for their backers. Last week it was Green Bay’s turn to give the game away. They allowed 13 4th quarter points to Baltimore, only winning thanks to a failed 2 point try.

This week, the magic is going to run out. Cincinnati are a healthier and  better team on both sides of the ball. Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson once again plus many of their key cogs.

The Bengals are better than we thought and sooner than we thought. They will win and cover this week as they look to not only make a playoff run but with the AFC North.

Pick: Bengals -3

Good luck in Week 16 and as always, never bet more than you are willing to lose!