NFL Week 15 Picks and Prop Bets

NFL Week 15 picks and prop bets is quite possibly the craziest week of the season. After going the vast majority of the season with minor Covid issues, Week 15 became the onslaught of issues. It has forced the leagues hand to move and reschedule games.

As fans, this does not suck, as it means we get more games spread out over more days and more opportunites to bet on the sport we all love.

This week, Aaron and I have 4 ATS picks for your consideration plus a parlay with prop bets and a 3 team teaser. While teasers dont always presenet the most value, there are some compelling opportunites to add as legs of a tease this week.

Before we dive into this weeks picks, lets quickly recap how the season has gone thus far. For me, Week 14 was a wild swing. The Browns were up 24-6 at half time and failed to score the entire second half and Tyler Huntley brought the Ravens to cover town. Then Buffalo went from getting blown out to a lock to cover to giving up a TD in OT. The 49ers were able to land the plane depsite looking like they were going to give the game away at multiple points.

For the sake of my heart and my sanity, lets hope we can find some more steady options this week.

Kyle

Week: 1-2

Season: 22-15-1

Aaron

Last Week: 2-1

Year to Date: 25-14-0

So, who do we like?

Aaron’s Week 15 Picks

This 2-1 thing is starting to get a little old… I’m starting to feel disappointed when I don’t hit every pick. To date, I’ve only missed 13 picks on the year… less than 1 per week. I’ve gone on hot streaks before, but this just feels like I’m in a zone… efficiently reading both oddsmakers and the public. I guess that’s what watching football for 10 straight hours every Sunday does for you (thanks RedZone).

Last week, my top pick was the Cowboys -4 over the WFT. That game was over at halftime… Taylor Heinecke had mental meltdown against the Cowboys. He was dealing with a relentless pass-rush and lost his superstar, Terry McLauren. 

My next pick was the Lions to not get smashed by the Broncos. That didn’t work out too well. Not much to talk about here… it wasn’t a fun game.

Final pick was a too-obvious teaser pick that cashed in. I was nervous as the games started due to just how simple this teaser felt. Basically getting 1-to-1 odds to say that the Saints and Titans would be the Jets and Jaguars, respectively. Yes, please. With Urban Meyer out, my strategy of immediately going against the Jags every week is put on hold. I want to see what they do differently here this week before just smashing against them. They are 4-9 ATS this season and face a terrible Houston team… if anything, take the Jags this week if you’re feeling frisky.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 @Denver Broncos

It was just 2-3 weeks ago when I said I should stay away from the Bengals for a while because of their parabolic nature… and here we are again. Living in Denver, I may be biased against them because we have (and have had) the talent to be a top 10 team for the past couple years… minus the QB play. 

What the Broncos don’t do extremely well is limit big-plays against explosive teams. The Bengals have a lot of playmakers that could make 1-2 splash plays in the 1^st and put them into catchup mode. Denver does well when they are either up early or can stay close through tough defense.

Using some random statistical analysis that has been flawless all season, the Bengals will absolutely cover in this game. Here’s their ATS results/pattern this season:

W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-L-W-W-L-L, and there you have it. Basically a guaranteed W when looking at that. Also, it’s at 3 points now! You have to take the evenly matched team getting a FG and believe that you get your money back worst-case here.

New Orleans +11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints beat the Bucs earlier in the season in Jameis Winston’s revenge game. Although this was in New Orleans, I just want everyone to remember and acknowledge this. The spread then ended around +4.5 on the Saints side. Last week, the Saints won their first game since beating the Bucs on 10/31/21. They also played some steep competition between these two games.

I know the mantra is that you cannot run on the Bucs… their front line is elite. What’s important to know within that is that the Bucs have the least rushing attempts against them… due to that belief/gameplan. They actually rank 21^st in yards per rush allowed. I took a look back at the two times these teams met in 2020. First, the Saints won both matchups last year against the Super Bowl winners. Secondly, the Saints averaged over 100 yards/gm against them.

When these teams matchup up in the playoffs, Alvin Kamara went for 18-85 and the team was again over 100 yards in the loss (by 10 points). The Saints quietly (or at least quieter than the Bucs) have one of the best run defense in the league. The resurgence of Leonard Fournette has absolutely taken the Bucs to another level this year… and I think that x-factor is taken away / minimized in this game. It’s a divisional rivalry game… Sean Payton won’t let this squad get blown out.

3-team Teaser: LA Rams +.5, SF 49ers -2.5, and HOU Texans +11.5 (+160)

I’ve really been enjoying teasers lately and want to up the stakes here a bit. I have picks to lose here with this hot streak, so I’m letting my gut guide me here.

The Rams are at home against an inconsistent Seattle team that is dealing with a lot of injuries and COVID issues. The Rams have plenty of COVID troubles themselves, but I’m taking the risk that at least a couple of the following get activated by Tuesday: OBJ, Ramsey, Miller, or Henderson. I’m not buying into Rashaad Penny’s breakout game last week… as the Rams have the highest rated rushing defense (per PFF) ahead of the aforementioned Saints above.

The Niners are still a bit banged up with Eli Mitchell missing this game, but Atlanta does not play well against good teams. Recently, their 3 losses were by 40, 25, and 13 to Dallas, New England, and Tampa Bay. Their wins have came against Carolina (by 8) and Jacksonville (by 7). They don’t have the firepower to keep up with playoff caliber teams and that’s what the Niners are. 2.5 points is a virtual lock.

Finally, after telling you to stay away from the Jags for a bit, I’m going against them. Now, this is a little different as their opponent is getting an insane 11.5 points. I don’t care who you are, if you don’t believe this is a lock you’re wrong. The Jaguars are averaging 13.8 points per game. They haven’t scored more than 23 all season. Now, the Texans are the only team worse than Jacksonville at 13.6 on the season, but the point is neither team is now suddenly expected to explode offensively in week 15. I think this game will be competitive – you have 2 really bad teams, in a divisional matchup, playing for some pride in their prideless season. I think Jacksonville wins this game, but it’s likely going to come down to a field goal or close to it.

Pick: LA Rams +.5, SF 49ers -2.5, and HOU Texans +11.5

Kyle’s Week 15 Picks

Tennessee Titans ML +110 at Pittsburgh Steelers

When this line opened with the Titans as a favorite I was a little thrown off, not because the wrong team was favored but because of the perceptions of both teams. Now thanks to that public sentiment, this line has gone through 0 and made the Titans a short underdog. 

While I typically don’t love backing my own teams, this value is too much to pass on. Offensively, while they are not the team they will ultimately field come playoff time, they are getting much healthier. Julio Jones looked good in his return and should be another week healthier. D’onta Foreman, while he is nowhere close to what Dalvin Cook is, should have a field day against this pedestrian rush defense.

Defensively, Tennessee is getting stronger with the return of Bud Dupree who will be active in this revenge spot. They also added Zach Cunningham, who played under Mike Vrabel while they were together with the Texans. 

If you want to take the points with Tennessee, especially if you can get the 2 or 2.5 that some places have floated I would completely understand but I’ll take the ML for the purposes of this article.

Pick: Titans ML +110

Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens

A week ago Tyler Huntley stepped in for an injured Lamar Jackson and brought Baltimore back in a game they were 24-6 at the half. Now the Ravens are entering the game with Huntley being the likely starter. 

As good as he looked a week ago, the difference between the defense game planning for one starter or another. The Packers are able to plan for Huntley in this spot which should help their defense slow him down.

My biggest concern backing Green Bay here is their willingness to take their foot off the gas much earlier than you would expect. They have let teams hang out around or climb back into games they had no business being in.

I expect Aaron Rodgers and co to get a big lead and hold on for the cover. It may look a lot like the Cowboys game from a week ago but I think they get to cover town.

Pick: Packers -7

PARLAY: Laquon Treadwell OVER 2.5 Receptions and James Washington OVER 6.5 receptions

The over on receptions for Laquon Treadwell and Diontae Johnson are my favorite props of Week 15. Unfortunately at this point in the week they are heavily juiced to the over. So, we will parlay them for a nice plus money payday.

First with Treadwell, he needs to catch 3 or more passes to hit the over. Over the last 3 weeks, Treadwell has caught 4 passes seeing 5 or more targets in every game.  He should remain the focus of  QB Trevor Lawrence, especially when all we need is 3 catches.

The 2nd leg is Diontae Johnson who is a volume monster in Pittsburgh. He has seen double-digit targets in all but two games this season. While 6.5 receptions seems a bit aggressive, its a totally reasonable number for this WR. He has gone over this total in 7 of the 12 games he has played including 4 of the last 5 games. 

Over at DK Sportsbook this parlay pays +178 or $17.80 on every $10 bet. This tremendous value for a couple solid props.

Pick: Treadwell over 2.5 and Johnson over 6.5 receptions

Good luck in Week 15! As always remeber to not bet more than you can afford to lose.