NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 14

Welcome to Week 14, Season Nine, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

I’ve said it 100 times.  Every year, we see a division upset.  Every year, one upset comes around that no one saw coming.  Often it is in epic fashion.  This past Sunday the 0-10-1 Detroit Lions hosted division rival the 5-6 Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings were a sold seven point favorite on the road, meaning, no one thought the Lions had a shot.  However, on the final play of the game, Jared Goff threw an 11 yard touchdown pass to give the Lions their first win of the season, and gave us another reason why we always avoid division matchups in this series.

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is you never know when it is going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

• Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
• Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
• Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team
• Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
• Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

This past week was a bit of a let-down when it came to prime time games.  Dallas took care of a New Orleans team on Thursday who couldn’t secure the ball.  The Chiefs easily handled a Broncos squad in Kansas City on Sunday night.  Then on Monday, we got one of the most boring games where the winning team only attempted three passes.  While the Monday game was at least close, it wasn’t exactly the most exciting slate of games this past week.

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason.  Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

• Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings
• Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
• Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

After Week 12 gave us some hope that home field advantage was coming back, Week 13 just about wiped it all away.  Out of 14 games, only six home teams won last week. However, we did see some home team upsets as the Lions, Steelers and Seahawks all beat division rivals in front of their home crowds.

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware and avoid this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

• New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets
• Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team
• Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

• Los Angeles Chargers over the New York Giants

The New York Giants continue to be a dumpster fire of a team.  Barkley looks to be a shell of his former self and Daniel Jones is banged up.  This week they have to travel across the country to Los Angeles to face a Chargers team that just put up 41 points on a good Bengals squad.  The Chargers are going to score a lot of points in this one, and I’m not sure the Giants can keep up.

Alternate pick of the week:

• Denver Broncos over the Detroit Lions

The Denver broncos are surprising a lot of teams this year.  In the past five weeks alone they have wins against the Chargers, Cowboys and the Washington Football Team.  Plus, do you really think the Lions are going to win two games in a row this season? 

Alternate rule breaker pick of the week:

• Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears

If I’m going to pick a prime time game, Aaron Rodgers is one of those guys I’m happy to ride with.  These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to talent and I expect this one to be over quickly.

Last Week’s Record = 3-0

Season Record = 26-12-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

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Thanks for reading!