NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 13

Welcome to Week 13, Season Nine, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

While there weren’t any major division upsets last week, we did get a lot of close games.  The Lions-Bears game was decided by only two points, the Eagles Giants game by only six points, and similarly the Browns Ravens game came down to only six points.  While you get your occasional blowout like we saw in Cincinnati, all too often these division games are way too close for comfort.

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is you never know when it is going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
• Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
• Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
• Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
• San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
• New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

The NFL truly outdid itself in Week 12 with prime time matchups.  Due to Thanksgiving, we got to enjoy five games between Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night.  Of those games, we got to experience two of them being decided by only two points, one being decided by a field goal in over time, and one by six points on Sunday night.  That’s four of five games being decided by a touchdown or less.  It doesn’t get much better than that!

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason.  Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

• Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
• Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
• New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Of the 15 games last week, nine were won by the home team.  In what feels like a long time, we finally are seeing some slimmer of home field advantage re-appearing in the NFL.  We also saw some minor upsets such as Miami over Carolina and the Giants over the Eagles.  We even saw one bigger upset in the rival Broncos beating up on the Chargers in Denver.  We haven’t given up on this rule just yet!

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware and avoid this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

• Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
• Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
• Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
• Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
• Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

• Los Angeles Rams over the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Rams were a Super Bowl favorite not long ago but seem to be heading down the wrong path after a three game losing streak.  I just don’t see any world where the Rams lose a fourth in a row when hosting the lowly Jags at home.  This should be a slam dunk.

Alternate pick of the week:

• Miami Dolphins over the New York Giants

Not often do I roll with a team that started the season 1-7, but this is a completely different Dolphins team and I expect their defense to give Daniel Jones fits in this one.

Alternate rule breaker pick of the week:

• Arizona Cardinals over the Chicago Bears

Arizona should finally be healthy after their bye week and if they get both Kyler and Hopkins back for this one, it shouldn’t matter that they are playing on the road.

Last Week’s Record = 1-2

Season Record = 23-12-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

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Thanks for reading!