Kyle
Week: 2-1
Season: 21-13-1
Aaron
Last Week: 2-1
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Year to Date: 23-13-0
Right back in the green last week, but not without a little sweat. My top pick, which has not missed this year (12-0), was one of the easiest locks this season. Atlanta is just a much better team than Jacksonville and they showed it.
Baltimore did not play as well as I thought they would have against a struggling Browns team. Regardless, they still got the cover winning 16-10.
My third pick could not have been more wrong. I thought the Steelers had been trending in the right direction recently, but I failed to account for a Cincinnati bounce-back to early season form. After seeing that game, it’s clear I need to stay away from the Steelers and Bengals for a bit.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45.5
Have you seen Russell Wilson and the Seahawks play lately? I love Russ, and always have, but he does not look like he’s trying out there. He doesn’t even look like he cares. This could be me reading way to far into facial expressions, but I believe he’s on his way out. He’s just trying to get through the season without any more injuries and he’s out of there.
Meanwhile, the Niners will be missing their All-Pro WR/RB Deebo Samuel for this contest. A guy who seemingly makes up 50% of their offense. Everything tells me to take Seattle +3 here playing at home (and I may) but this is a much more confident pick in a ugly, defensive game. I see lots of running on both sides in this one – the Seahawks didn’t sign AP to throw him the ball…
Pick: UNDER 45.5
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Los Angeles Rams -12.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I wanted this to be my top pick to go for a perfect 13-0 on the season, but I rarely ever take this many points. I told myself before seeing the line that I would take it no matter what it was (under 14.5 of course). The Rams have been slipping… the public knows it, media knows it, and they know it.
They started the year looking like the de facto #1 team in league (or at least #2 behind Buffalo). They have lost 3 in a row, but they have played great teams in the process. They lost by 12, 21, and 8 to the surging Titans, the surprising 49ers, and the studly Packers, respectively.
This team should be on an absolute mission to destroy Trevor Lawrence & the Jags this week. My biggest cause for concern here is the Jags ATS record against good teams. They are 4-7 ATS on the year, but 3-1 against teams like Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Miami.
On the flip side, and what’s convincing me to take the Rams with confidence, is their 5 losses of over 12 on the year. That’s more than half of their losses being blowouts. Give me one of the most talented teams, looking to make a statement to the world, against a team that is just playing for yet another top draft pick.
Pick: Rams -12.5
Indianapolis Colts -10 @ Houston Texans
This one scares me, but to be transparent, I don’t like most lines on the slate this week. This will be my weakest betting week of the season, hands down. I’ll be shifting more towards DFS this week with a lot of games with potential blowup spots (Jonathan Taylor in this one).
The Colts have 100% turned their season around after a 1-4 start. They are coming off back-to-back games against the Bills (W by 26) and the Bucs (L by 7). Before those games, they beat the Jets by 15, Niners by 12, and Texans by 28 at home. I’m not worried about any type of home-field advantage for the Texans and they can play 17 points worse and still win. Yes, they can score 2 fewer TD’s and not kick a FG and still cover this line. My worst-case scenario here pushes. Also like the over in this as this game script allows JT to run wild.
Pick: Colts -10
