NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 15

Welcome to Week 15, Season Nine, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

After the massive Lions upset in Week 13, we didn’t see any earth shattering division upsets in Week 14.  We did see some very close games however.  The Browns almost gave up their lead at the end of their game against Baltimore.  The Cowboys similarly let the Washington football team claw back to a one score game in the fourth quarter of their matchup.  Even the Panthers-Falcons game went back and forth with what seemed like a different Carolina quarterback in each quarter.  While there were no major upsets, we did have a lot of single score games played between division foes.

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is you never know when it is going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

• Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
• New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
• Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles
• Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
• Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
• Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
• New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While the Packers ran away with the Sunday night game by putting up a whopping 45 points on Chicago, the other two games were a bit closer.  Thursday night looked like it was going to be a blowout after the first half, but you must give Pittsburgh credit for making it a game and having a shot at the end.  Even on Monday night, while chances were slim Arizona would pull off the last second comeback, they did get the game down to only a seven point differential.  Enough to make a prime time game interesting!

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason.  Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

• Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
• Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
• New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Home field advantage made a bit of a comeback last week, as eight of 14 games were won by the home team (57%).  That being said, most of the wins were by the favorites and we didn’t see any major upsets that could be attributed to home field advantage.   

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware and avoid this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

• Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
• Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
• Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
• Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
• Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens
• Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

• Buffalo Bills over the Carolina Panthers

The Bills lost an overtime thriller last week after a humiliating prime time loss to the Patriots the week before.  The Bills have quickly fallen off the top of the AFC East, and if they aren’t careful, they could lose their grips on the playoffs as well.  Expect a very motivated Bills squad returning home this week to throw everything they can at the Panthers.  The only caveat is Josh Allen’s health.  If somehow, he doesn’t play in this game, switch to an alternate pick below.

Alternate pick of the week:

• San Francisco 49ers over the Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers are desperately holding onto a playoff spot and they are hosting a Falcons team that could barely beat a Panthers team playing musical chairs with their quarterbacks throughout the game.  While I don’t expect a blowout here, the 49ers need this more than Atlanta and I expect another huge game from Kittle.

Alternate rule breaker pick of the week:

• Arizona Cardinals over the Detroit Lions

The Cardinals lost a tough prime time game vs. a division foe Monday night and I very much expect them to take all their frustration out on this Lions team.  The Lions got their one win of the season already, and I don’t expect them to win many more.  This should be a blowout even with Arizona on the road.

Last Week’s Record = 3-0

Season Record = 29-12-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

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Thanks for reading!