Week 14 NFL Picks and Props

After a week off I am back with Aaron to break down our favorite options for the Week 14 NFL slate. We have 6 ATS picks for your consideration this week. While there wasn’t any crossover between Aaron’s picks and mine the Dallas Cowboys were on the short list just missing the cut.

As for who I did ultimately land on? I’m buying low on teams I believe in long term. The playoffs will be here much soon that we expect and the next few weeks will be critical to teams locking up those spots.

Before we dive into this weeks picks, lets take a look at the records thus far.

Kyle

Week: N/A

Season: 21-13-1

Aaron

Last Week: 2-1

Year to Date: 25-14-0

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

The 49ers come into this game off of a tough loss against a division rival Seattle Seahawks. But that game started off weird with Trenton Cannon getting taken off in an ambulance. It also featured a fake punt TD for Seattle, QB Jimmy Garoppolo throwing a terrible INT and more. For a team that already has issues in Seattle, this was a recipe for disaster.

Now they get a chance to rebound in another road spot against a Bengals team that was up and down a week ago. They had their moments but made terrible errors at key times leading to a loss.

San Francisco, while they have their issues in the secondary, are fantastic at getting pressure on the opposing QBs. Cincinnati on the other hand has issues protecting their QB with an anemic offensive line. They also could be without Joe Mixon who is dealing with an illness which would put even more pressure on the Bengals offensive line.

Offensively the 49ers could be without Eli Mitchell but Jeff Wilson Jr and/or JaMychal Hasty can be a reasonable replacement. They could also have Deebo Samuel back this week to contribute which is looking more likely by the day.

San Francisco, despite their performance romance last week is a dark horse to come out of the NFC. Give me the road team here. I would be willing to back the 49ers up to -2.5.

Pick: 49ers -1.5

Buffalo Bills +3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am going back to the well this week with the Buffalo Bills, a team I firmly believe is still the elite team we saw earlier this year. The game against the Patriots was gross and they did some strange things with the crazy wind. Now they head to Florida, an environment that is much more conducive to what they want to do offensively.

Obviously on the other side, Tampa Bay has been great and are coming off of 3 straight covers. But defensively, they are a defense that is stronger against the run and helps funnel the passing game. Something that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do.

As long as you can get the hook, the Bills are an absolute smash. This game will likely come down the end and Tampa Bay could easily win this game but I’d expect to see a field goal game or less either way. I don’t hate sprinkling a bit on the money line either.

Pick: BIlls +3.5

Cleveland Browns -3 vs Baltimore Ravens

While I would much prefer the -2.5 that was floating around much of the week, I can still line up to back Cleveland this week. You might be able to find a -2.5, a number that has popped up at BetMGM and FanDuel. For the purposes of this article I will stick with the -3 that is more prevalent in the market.

The Browns come into this game as a much healthier team even with issues at TE. The bye week has certainly helped in that department. This is also a really unique spot as Cleveland played Baltimore before their bye and get them this week. Being able to be hyper focused on one team adds a bit more comfort in prep.

Baltimore on the other end is having a weird month or so. They are leaning on Devonta Freeman, which in 2021 was not a statement I expected to make. They have also phased out Rashod Bateman for some bizarre reason. Lamar Jackson has been throwing more, which is good in theory but the results have been wildly inconsistent.

I will take the home team here minus the 3. I expect the Browns to run really effectively, control the ball and win this game fairly comfortably.

Pick: Browns -3 

Aaron’s Week 14 Picks

Immediately after declaring my undefeated streak of top picks, I miss. My 1^st pick of the article is now 13-1 after the Niners and Seahawks put on a mini-shootout for the NFC West fans. I’ll admit that it was nice to see Russ cook a bit more and for Seattle to get the W… but I would love for Russell Wilson to end up locally here in Denver next year!

The Rams roasted the Jags as predicted for an easy win there. The spreads may only get higher from here, but Jacksonville has nothing to play for at this point. They should be an easy target for teasers and alternate lines.

The Colts, similarly to the Rams, put a whoopin’ on the Texans last week, shutting them out 31-0. Indy has really turned around their season after a shaky start – if you haven’t watched Hard Knocks: In-season yet, I highly recommend you do so. Just don’t start betting with a bias after loving that team.

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ Washington Football Team

I was all over the Cowboys early this season and rightfully so. They looked amazing on both sides of the ball. I even bet a good chunk of change on them to win the Super Bowl around Week 5. While the past 8-9 weeks haven’t made me feel great about that, I still think this is an elite team.

Washington comes into this game on a 4-game win streak… a prime spot to regress to the norm here. Even though they are home, in a divisional matchup, something has to give here. Dak Prescott and the Boys are 7-1 against the Football team in the past 4 years.

Prescott may need to throw it a bit more with Zeke and Pollard banged up, but he has a healthy receiving core and it’s one of the best in the league. I trust the Cowboys to handle this game and win by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Cowboys -4.5

Detroit Lions +10 at Denver Broncos

Really expected this to be around 7.5 or 8.5 so I’ll take it at 10 – highly suggest you get on this before it goes back down. Denver has 5 wins this year over 10 points, but they have been averaging 16 ppg over their last 6 games. Of those 5 wins, 3 were the Giants, Jets, and Jaguars – not a huge accomplishment.

I’m not trying to imply that the Lions are a great team, but they have fought hard all year long. In fact, they have only lost 4 games by 10 or more points out of their 11 non-win games. Those were against the Packers, Bengals, Eagles, and the Bears. You could play the letdown approach here coming off their heroic win vs. Minnesota last week, but I think this team is playing inspired (losing) football. The Broncos just aren’t a team I ever expect to blow a team out… I’m happy taking the points here.

Pick: Lions +10

6-pt Teaser: New Orleans +.5 and Tennessee Titans-2 (-120)

Not getting great odds on this one, but why should you? It’s basically saying two top ~15 teams are going to beat 2 of the worst 3 teams in the NFL. Going back to my intro, I feel pretty comfortable with the Titans bouncing back from their 2-game losing streak to lay down a double-digit win at home against the lowly Jags.

The Saints are the shakier pick of the two here, but it’s still Sean Payton vs. THE JETS in my opinion. The Jets +5.5 line is basically saying this would be Saints -8.5 or greater at home. The Saints have lost 5 straight games, but get Alvin Kamara back this week. You know they are going to be ready to make a statement here and at least put up a fighting chance to “survive” in the playoff race.

The NFC is a mess outside of the top 5 teams… the only 5 above .500 in the conference. Even though the Saints are 5-7, they are very much in the playoff hunt. I don’t see Sean Payton calling it quits this early so you can almost guarantee they beat a team who is 3-9. 

Pick: Saints +.5 and Titans -2

Good luck in Week 14 and let’s cash some winners! As always, don’t bet anything you are not willing to lose.