NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 16

Welcome to Week 16, Season Nine, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last Sunday, down in Tampa Bay, the 10-3 Bucs hosted their division rival, the 6-7 Saints.  The Bucs were an 11.5pt favorite, and no one was giving their rival a shot to upset the super bowl champions from last year.  Fast forward to today and not only did the underdog Saints leave Tampa with a victory, they held Tom Brady to 0 points, a defensive feat that doesn’t happen often.  If that doesn’t show you how unpredictable division games can be, I don’t know what better proof I can give you.

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is you never know when it is going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

• Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
• Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
• New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
• Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
• Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Not counting the unexpected Covid prime time games on Tuesday, we had some exciting matchups on Thursday, Sunday and Monday of last week.  On Thursday, we enjoyed a back and forth shoot-out with the Chiefs needing overtime to defeat their rival from LA.  We already talked about the Bucs getting unexpectedly shut out on Sunday night.  Then on Monday, the Browns took what was supposed to be a Saturday prime time game, moved it to a Monday prime-time(ish) game and almost beat the Raiders with a team filled with practice squad players.  I think we can finally crown 2021 as the best prime time season of the past decade!

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason.  Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

• San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans
• Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers
• Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
• Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys
• Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

If the Lions beating the Cardinals in their home state of Michigan doesn’t show you why home field advantage is still a thing in the NFL, then I don’t know what else to tell you here.   

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware and avoid this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

• San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans
• Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

• Kansas City Chiefs over the Pittsburgh Steelers

While both of these teams are fighting for the playoffs and many may see this as a pick’em game, I just think the Steelers are not a very good football team, despite their record.  However, on the other side of the field, the Chiefs may be playing their best football of the season.  This game comes with a big warning that I expect Kelce and Hill, among others, to play in this game, but if they do not come off the covid list, flex to an alternate pick below.

Alternate picks of the week:

• Seattle Seahawks over the Chicago Bears

Normally we don’t pick teams with a losing record, but as you get this late into your season, you need some new options.  While the Seahawks have not been good this year, they have played better than their record shows.  On the other side is a Bears team that has given up on their head coach and must travel far west on a holiday weekend for this game.  I think home field advantage becomes a big decider in this one.

• Atlanta Falcons over the Detroit Lions

While the Falcons aren’t a great team either, this again is about finding teams you haven’t used this late in the season.  Also, how many games can Detroit really pull out this season?  Their luck has to be running out soon, right?

Last Week’s Record = 2-1

Season Record = 31-13-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

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Thanks for reading!