NFL Week 5 ATS Picks and Props

Aaron and I remain on fire as we head into NFL Week 5. We went a combined 6-0 with our Week 4 picks bringing our combined record to 18-5 on the season. For me, finding props and ATS picks for Week 5 was the most challenging thus far this season.

That being said, I found two sides to back in Week 5. I also found a player prop for one of, if not the biggest game of the year with the Kansas City Chiefs squaring off against the Buffalo Bills. Player props can be a great way to get some action down on games where the side totals seemingly don’t offer any value.

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Kyle

Week: 3-0

Season: 11-3

Aaron

Week: 3-0

Season: 7-2

As for our Week 5 picks

Kyle’s Week 5 Picks

Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs Green Bay Packers

Cincinnati has impressed through the first month of the season. The defense has been much improved, including having 11 sacks on the season and allowing the 7th fewest yards.

On the other side, Green Bay has gone 3-0 after being pantsed in Week 1 against the Saints including wins at San Francisco and home vs Pittsburgh. The offense found its form but the defense has been a mess.

This week the Packers are again dealing with injuries including Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander and potentially Kevin King. This is bad news for a Bengals passing game that should have all off its weapons healthy with Tee Higgins expected to return this week.

This is also a week where Cincinnati will likely not have Joe Mixon. This will actually let the Bengals lean more on their passing game and take advantage of the worst part of the Green Bay defense.

With the perception of this line combined with no line movement, I can’t help but back the home team here.

Pick: Bengals +3

New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Washington Football Team

The ping pong Saints are back in column this week despite being favorites on the road. This week they face a Washington team that is a mess on both sides of the ball. They are down Logan Thomas in this game who is one of the most important targets beyond Terry McLaurin. There is also a chance Antonio Gibson may miss this game. He has a stress fracture in his shin that he has been playing through.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Washington front four has not lived up to the standard they set last year. The backend of the defense has a ton of issues. Expect Jameis Winston and the Saints offense to bounce back

Back the road team in this spot to cover the short number.

Pick: Saints -2.5

Josh Allen OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards

While I don’t love anything from a side or total perspective in the Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills game, I love the potential of this player prop. I will target Josh Allen’s rushing prop and take the OVER on 32.5.

Thus far he has rushed for 35 or more yards in 3 of 4 games this season. No Allen is in a great spot for rushing QBs. Kansas City allowed Lamar Jackson ran for 107 yards back in Week 2. Then Jalen Hurts then rushed for 47 yards against them last week.

I expect Allen to have plenty of opportunities to take off against KC. Take the over this week with Allen’s rushing prop.

Pick: Josh Allen OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards

Aaron’s Week 5 Picks

OH MY, HE’S ON FIRE. Back-to-back 3-0 weeks puts me at 10-2 on the season. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I’m up 24 units since the season started personally. Just hit 5 out of 6 bets on Thursday night, with DK Metcalf under 79 the only loss after Geno Smith lit the world on fire!

TAMPA, FLORIDA – AUGUST 25: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers works out during training camp ahead of the 2020-21 NFL season at AdventHealth Training Center on August 25, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess right now and I’m hammering this line. Brady is coming off back-to-back down weeks, including a 0 TD performance against his old team. I see Brady going bonkers here in this game for 3-5 TD’s. Oh, and Miami is the worst team in the league against the run… so Fournette should have a field day.

Miami could very well have negative rushing yards in this game forcing them to air it out. I respect Jacoby Brissett but he’s not in a position to throw for 300+ yards and a handful of TD’s. This offense throws it 2-3 yards and hopes that it’s receivers can break loose. This isn’t news to the Bucs so they will be prepared to stop it and shut Miami down just like the (pathetic) Colts did last week.

Pick: Buccaneers -9.5

Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

I picked the Cowboys last week to cover against the Panthers, which paid off nicely for me. I didn’t do this because the Panthers were bad, more than the Cowboys are very good. I’m such a believer that I threw 1 unit on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl this year at +2500. The Panthers fought admirably without their best player, but couldn’t stop the Boys rushing attack.

Speaking of rushing attack, someone should tell the Eagles that running backs run the ball! Hurts is slashing defenses on the ground, but Sanders/Gainwell/Scott aren’t doing a thing. This is a team that is just going to air it out and isn’t good enough to connect more often than not. I see them “competing” in a lot of games, but really getting their yards & points in garbage time.

Also, it’s a bit early for trends, but Carolina is 3-1 ATS while Philly is 1-3. I think there’s a disconnect between oddsmakers and the public with these teams. Continue to play it!

Pick: Panthers -3

Detroit Lions +10 @ Minnesota Vikings

The Lions aren’t a bad team. Sure, they are still bottom 5 in the league, but they have talent on both sides of the ball. More importantly, their offense can move the ball and put-up points. The Vikings defense was supposed to be good this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the week that they show up… but I’m making them prove it before I believe it.

Pick: Lions +10

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