Week 14 Milly Maker Plays

Week 14 Milly Maker Plays

5 teams have implied team totals north of 29 in Week 14. The Jets are the biggest dogs at -13.5 on the road. CMC and Gibson are both expected to be out so some running back value should open up. We have Kelce and Waller back on the main slate too if you want to pay up for tight end.

Should be a high scoring week especially if you want to stack those teams with massive team totals. Thanks for reading and… Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Aaron Rodgers, $7500, Green Bay Packers

8.5% projected ownership

Rodgers has seriously been turning back the clock this year. The 37 year old veteran has enjoyed his renaissance while also having a top 2 season in TD% (8.7) and completion% (68.9.)

Expect him to keep this train rolling as 7.5 point road favorites in Detroit. The Packers 31.25 implied total is also good for most expected team points. The Lions’ pass defense has been rough too as they rank 29th in Football Outsiders Pass DVOA. With ownership being spread amongst so many games, take a stand here on a proven commodity.

Chalk QB: Mahomes

Also Consider: Tannehill, Wilson, Brady, Cousins

Let’s Get Weird QB: Tua, Glennon, Brandon Allen 

RB

David Montgomery, $6500, Chicago Bears

12.5% projected ownership

The Montgomery Frankenstein meme is finally coming to life! After paying off as massive chalk in Week 13, Montgomery’s ownership seems to be chopped in half in Week 14 (naturally, right?) 

Since coming back from a 2 week absence (concussion), the Bears’ bellcow has notched RB6 and RB1 finishes on DraftKings.  Over this same sample, Montgomery’s snap percentage (80%) is second only to James Robinson (91%.) 

Facing off against a team who is dead last in rushing yards allowed (129/gm/avg) and second worst in rushing touchdowns allowed (15), it’s safe to say… IT’S ALIVE!

holy crap, this guy would be the best RB in the NFL. if he existed lol pic.twitter.com/XFpUPHSvAh

— tybo (@TylerStrong95) December 11, 2020

Chalk RB: Henry (back to the well)

Also Consider: Aaron Jones, Cook (low owned), Robinson

Let’s Get Weird RB: ROJO, Swift (limited practice so keep an eye on him)

WR

Justin Jefferson, $7400, Minnesota Vikings

4.8% projected ownership

This is the beauty of such a massive slate. A sub 5% Justin Jefferson in a better than advertised spot against the Bucs.  Although Football Outsiders ranks the Bucs 8th best in Pass DVOA, they have started to unravel as of late. Over the past 4 weeks, they’ve allowed the most FPts to opposing wideouts including a 13/269/3 outburst from Tyreek Hill. Jefferson ranks top 10 in ArYds % (36.1%) and ReYd/Gm (86.6.)  Since Week 12, Jefferson is averaging a 94% snap share while logging 25 targets and 290 AirYds. Wheels up for the rookie! 

Chalk WR: Adams, Allen

Also Consider: Hill, Antonio Brown (Evans DNP), Higgins, Thielen

TE

Jacob Hollister, $3100, Seattle Seahawks

.9% projected ownership

After losing Greg Olsen to a fascia tear in his foot, the Seahawks have been content in using Hollister and Dissly in relief of the veteran.

What we’re hoping for here is a touchdown grab and a handful of catches to smash this cheap price tag. If nothing more than a pure DVP play (17.7 DKPt allowed/league worst) against the Jets, there are worse punt options. Also factoring in the huge 30 pt implied total for Seattle, Hollister makes for a nice play to sprinkle into your MME.

Chalk TE: Kelce

Also Consider: Gesicki, Henry, Goedert

DST

CAR, SEA, NO

Let’s Get Weird DST:

DAL

(My preference in that order)