First off, I hope everyone had their fill of some good food and enjoyed ThanksGibson as much as I did! Now let’s get back to work and grind this Milly! 8 teams project to score over 26 points this week so I’m expecting a winning lineup will likely need over 215 points to take down the contest. Let’s look to these high total games to piece together some interesting lineups. I can’t think of a more complicated slate given the massive Covid-19 designations. CMC, Thielen, JT, Gurley, Chark and Ahmed are all OUT thus far. Anyway… Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Kyler Murray, $8200, Arizona Cardinals
5.8% projected ownership
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I’m all in whenever I can get Kyler Murray, with single digit projected ownership. Murray is currently the number one scoring player at the quarterback position, averaging 29.2 FPt/gm. As a mobile quarterback, Murray ranks 3rd in rushing touchdowns with 10, behind only Cook and Gibson (Gibson just scored 3 TD on Thanksgiving btw). Over the past 4 weeks, the Patriots have allowed the 9th most FPts to opposing QBs and rank 31st in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA. I have him projected for 31 DKPt. Wheels up, my babies!
Mahomes, Tannehill, Carr
Let’s Get Weird QB:
Dalvin Cook, $9500, Minnesota Vikings
38.6% projected ownership
Dalvin Cook is massive chalk again and I’m so here for it. Playing without Thielen (C19), expect the Vikings to focus more on the ground game as they look to face the Panthers 22nd ranked rush defense. Through 9 games of action, Cooks’ lowest scoring output was a floor of 15.2DKPt in a divisional slugfest with the Bears. Cook’s 18.6 Weighted Opportunities per game is second only to Alvin Kamara. Lock in Cook here with his high usage and differentiate elsewhere. Rinse repeat.
Jacobs, Henry, Chubb, Hines, Hill
Kamara, Hunt, Gallman
Let’s Get Weird RB:
Tyreek Hill, $7800 Kansas City Chiefs
12.9% projected ownership
In MME, I like the idea of rotating some value plays around some lower owned expensive stacks to gain leverage. What I mean by this is, I’ll likely have some variation of Cook/Value/FlexValue (for example), throughout my lineups alongside the pricey Mahomes/Hill stacks. There is so much value unlocked on this slate because so many players will miss after testing positive for C19. Tyreek Hill leads the league in touchdown receptions (10), and the Chiefs’ team total is highest on the slate with 30. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has allowed the 7th most FPt to opposing WR over the past 4 weeks. Cheetah ‘bout to eat.
A.J. Brown, Hopkins, Curtis Samuel, Moore, Deebo Samuel
Austin Hooper, $3800 Cleveland Browns
6.9% projected ownership
Hooper hasn’t lived up to the hype after signing a huge contract in Cleveland as the highest paid tight end in football. With Beckham being placed on IR, many fantasy managers were hoping Hooper could help fill the void left by their top wideout. However, Hooper was forced to miss 3 games himself as he recovered from an appendectomy. Also let’s consider the last 2 games were played in extreme weather conditions. Expect a bounce back from Mayfield and the Browns here as they head down to Jacksonville as touchdown favorites on the road. The Jags rank 30th in pass DVOA to the tight end position. If I’m paying down, I don’t mind this spot for the savings.
Henry (lock for 12 DKPt), Burton
NYG, MIA, CLE, LAR, NO
(I’m likely just playing a handful of DST in my MME build Sunday)
(My preference in that order)