Week 8 Milly Maker Plays

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

Trick or Treat my babies! Week 8 is here and only 6 teams are projected to score above 26 points. This week could be lower scoring than we’re used to as Vegas seems more bearish on these matchups.  The most lopsided game is the Chiefs/Jets with a 19.5 point spread. I have little interest in Mahomes here though as I expect the Jets to be unable to keep this one competitive. I’m watching Cook and Hunt to see if any value opens up at the running back position. Anyway, let’s dig in! 

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Derek Carr

Derek Carr, $5500 Oakland Raiders

11.3% projected ownership

This is a strictly DVP play for me. I know a lot of analysts are fading matchup plays but that take doesn’t interest me, as I believe there’s still value in that assessment.  While I don’t expect Carr to beat 30 DKPt on Sunday, 22 DKPt is well within his range of outcomes which is a fine 4x his salary and hence tournament viable. Carr is tied for 6th best in Passing TDs (13), 8th in pass attempts/game (35.2) and 5th in passing yards/attempt (8.17).  The Browns have allowed the 3rd most Passing TDs to opposing QBs and allow a per game average of 24.1 DKPt (7th most.) I like the Ruggs pairing here. 

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Aaron Rodgers threw 10 total TD passes, in both games combined against Chicago, last season.

Aaron Rodgers, $7600, Green Bay Packers

11.3% projected ownership

Rodgers and the Pack will host the division rival Vikings, in what could turn out to be a shootout in their second meeting. The Packers’ 29.25 expected team total is the 3rd highest on the slate. Per PFF, the Packers’ offensive line has the 3rd best matchup in the trenches for the passing game (37% advantage for the offense).  For the third time, I’ll mention something as third best… Rodgers has thrown the 3rd most passing touchdowns in 2020! The Vikings are bottom-10 in passing touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks (14). As he will surely be popular, it’s important to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.  

Even More Chalk QB:

Tannehill, Mahomes

Let’s Get Weird QB:

Stafford, Foles, Mayfield, Jimmy G

RB

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Le’Veon Bell

9% projected ownership

Bell looked to be dustier than Frankenstein’s blazer in his time with the Jets.  However, as has been the case with many players that leave the black hole of Adam Gase’s terrible coaching, Bell gets another shot with an actually good team in Kansas City. While i’m not expecting him to supplant rookie RB, CEH, I do expect him to get some retribution against his former team, as near 3 touchdown favorites. With the opposing Jets’ defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs: the matchup, price and narrative fit for Bell to smash his cheap salary.  If you want to tail me Sunday, I’ll be betting the Bell TD prop bet HARD. Giddyup!  

Chalk RB:

Jamaal Williams, Hunt, Henry, Cook

Also Consider:

Taylor, Henderson

Let’s Get Weird RB:

MG3

WR

A.J. Green, $4500, Cincinnati Bengals

11.1% projected ownership

After a very slow start to the season, Green and rookie quarterback, Joe Burrow, have slowly started to establish a connection. Green started the season leading the league in airyards but only had 14 receptions through the first 5 weeks of action. In Weeks 6 and 7 alone, however, he has hauled in 15 catches. Still without a touchdown on the season, expect that to change when facing a Titans defense that has allowed the 4th most touchdowns this season and most FPts in the past month to opposing wideouts.   

Chalk WR:

Adams, A.J. Brown

Also Consider:

Aiyuk (9% against SEA…sign me up!), Mims

Let’s Get Weird WR:

Hilton, Preston Williams, Anthony Miller

TE:

Jimmy Graham, $4600 Chicago Bears

.1% projected ownership

To keep with the theme of fantasy superstars from 2007, let’s look to Jimmy Graham. Graham’s low projected ownership is a bit surprising given his usage. Graham is tied for 4th in tight end targets (42), 4th in receptions (27) and tied for 2nd in tight end receiving touchdowns (4). In 2020, the Saints have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  Allen Robinson is currently listed as Doubtful and expected to miss Sunday’s game. 

Chalk TE:

Kelce, Waller

Let’s Get Weird TE:

Kmet, Everett

DST:

KC, BUF, LAC

Let’s Get Weird DST:

TEN

(My preference in that order)

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