Week 17 is such a bizarre slate…especially so in 2021. With playoff seeding finalized, lots of teams will be rolling out some backups while resting starters. This massive slate will really thin out ownership so it’s not as important to concern yourself with player ownership for leverage. My goal here is to play correlated lineups and attack the spots that have been profitable thusfar. Let’s dig in!
**UPDATE** The Saints will be rolling out Ty Montgomery at $4000 with 3 other RBs on C19/Reserve. Kamara is OUT
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Kirk Cousins, $6300, Minnesota Vikings
9.2% projected ownership
As you may know by now, I love targeting passing offenses in domes during these colder months. What’s nice about this spot too, is the clear concentration of targets which makes for a sensible game stack with a Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen pairing and a runback with Jones Jr. With Dalvin Cook already ruled out, pepper Cousins in your MME while he’s facing a team that Football Outsiders ranks dead last in Pass DVOA (32) and passing TDs allowed (35).
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Josh Allen, Jackson
Watson, Brady, Rivers, Beathard
Ronald Jones, $5900, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.4% projected ownership
Ronald Jones II looks to be returning from a 2-week stay on the COVID-19 list, while nursing a pinky injury. After starting the week logging limited practices, Jones was able to ramp up his involvement as a full participant for Thursday’s session. The Bucs’ 28.25 total is the 4th highest here on the main slate. While the Falcons are good, not great, against opposing rushers (allowing the 15th most FPt to opposing RB in the last 4 weeks) Jones is worth consideration in a game with a big team total and also remembering that last team he played, Fournette was a healthy scratch.
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Henry, Taylor, Mattison (lower than consensus but not fadeable)
Elliott, Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Malcolm Brown (34% way too high for me on such a big slate)
T.Y. Hilton, $5800 Indianapolis Colts
3.5% projected ownership
Hilton’s decline seems to be greatly exaggerated as the veteran wideout recently connected with Rivers for a handful of 20+ point fantasy outings. His price tag is a bit steep but we do know that he has the upside we look for in GPP. The Colts, who still have to win this game Sunday for playoff implications, will face the 32nd ranked DVOA pass defense in the Jags. I really like the double stack here with Zach Pascal who has 3 TDs in his last 2 games. This game is also played in a dome.
Adams, Ridley (no Julio, no cry), Jefferson
Diggs (Buffalo is locked but I think they can connect for 2 first half bombs), Thielen, Jones Jr., Shepard, Jeudy( coming off 15 target game at $4200), Metcalf
Rob Gronkowski, $4500, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.1% projected ownership
Gronk is in a decent spot Sunday, coming off a 2 TD game against the Lions. The fact that he’s been able to stay healthy all season is awesome, but surprising. Gronk is tied for 4th in tight end reTD (7) and 9th in reYd/gm (39.6). Meanwhile, the opposing Falcons are tied in allowing the 2nd most passing Tds to opposing tight ends while also allowing the 2nd most FPts to the position in 2020. In Tampa Bay’s final game to ramp up for the postseason, expect Brady and the Bucs to fire on all cylinders in order to go into the postseason hot.
BAL, IND, NE, ARI
Let’s Get Weird DST:
(My preference in that order)