With games being played on Friday and Saturday, the main slate for Week 16 is down to 10 games. I’m expecting more concentrated ownership based on the smaller slate size and with only 3 games expected over 50 points. There are too many injuries to name right now but keep an eye on the injury reports for some prominent players heading into Sunday. I’m trying to find a way to get to KC team stacks but may end up running Hill/Kelce as secondary stacks. Hopefully some value plays open up. Good luck to everyone with your championship for season longs this week. So yeah…let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
QB
Matt Ryan, $5800, Atlanta Falcons
12.6% projected ownership
In a game with the highest over/under on the slate, why not take a shot at the cheaper of the 2 quarterbacks in hopes of some garbage time/shootout potential? The Falcons are currently the biggest dogs with the spread sitting at KC -11.5. Rostering the cheaper Ryan allows for an interesting way to get more access to Ridley, Hill and Kelce, all of whom are priced over $8500. Per Player Profile, Ryan’s 335.2 AirYds/Gm and Deep Ball Attempts (passes 20 yards or more downfield), rank 1st among all quarterbacks in Week 16. It was nice to see Ryan produce fantasy points without Julio Jones too, as he was the 6th highest scoring QB in Week 15 with 30.84 DKPt. Maybe we get more fire from “Matty Ice” this week?
Chalk QB:
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Mahomes, Watson, Hurts
Also Consider:
Trubisky, Herbert, Goff
RB
David Montgomery, $7700, Chicago Bears
30.1% projected ownership
Something is finally clicking for David Montgomery. Maybe he made a deal with the Devil at the Crossroads or maybe it’s that he’s faced terrible rush defenses in 4 straight weeks or maybe he’s just plain good now. Whatever the reasoning behind his recent emergence, I’m buying. Since returning from a concussion that sidelined him in Week 10, Montgomery leads all running backs in PPR scoring with 26.5 gm/avg. After not handling more than 21 carries all season, Montgomery was finally unleashed against Minnesota, as he shouldered the load for 32/146/2. The matchup this week is quite good too, as Football Outsiders ranks the Jags as the 24th ranked rush defense DVOA. No team allows more fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past 4 games. Giddyup!
Chalk RB:
Bell, Chubb
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Also Consider:
David Johnson, Henderson, MGIII
WR
Tyreek Hill, $9000, Kansas City Chiefs
16.6% projected ownership
As stated above, I have quite a bit of interest in the Chiefs this week given their exorbitant price tags and massive expected team total. Honestly, I might lock Mahomes/Hill and hit the opto for 150 lineups this week. The Chiefs’ number 1 ranked should stay hot, facing a porous Falcons defense that has allowed the 2nd most FPt to opposing wideouts this year (28.4 gm/avg). Hill will surely be popular but 16.6% is far from fadeable chalk. Expect Hill to see a lot of cover by corner, Isaiah Oliver, in the slot who is tied for the 2nd most TDs allowed in coverage (6) and 13th most yards allowed in coverage (667 yards allowed). Although Hill is listed as questionable for Sunday, the designation seems to be more precautionary. Deuces!
Chalk WR:
Cooper, Robinson, Cooks
Also Consider:
Landry, Watkins, Mooney, Metcalf
TE:
Logan Thomas, $4900, Washington Football Team
6.2% projected ownership
As is the case most weeks, my main focus is jamming in Kelce wherever I can afford him. However, my second favorite tight end for Week 16 has to be Logan Thomas. He’s getting seriously insane usage for a team that will be without top target Terry McLaurin. Thomas ranks top 4 in the following areas: AirYds % (21%), RZTar% (27.5%) and reTDs (5). Football Outsiders has the Panthers ranked 26th in tight end Passing DVOA. Regardless who starts for Washington, I will have plenty of interest in LT here.
Chalk TE:
Kelce, Hooper
Also Consider:
Parham
DST:
BAL, CLE, CHI, LAC, WAS
Let’s Get Weird DST:
NYG, DAL
(My preference in that order)
