Week 7 Milly Maker Plays

Week 7 looks like another week of high scores, with 3 games with at least a 56 point O/U. Washington has been bet up 1.25 to a 24.25 implied team total (interesting to see the total move that much fwiw.) Roster construction lends itself to paying down for the value rbs this week. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Kyler Murray, $7100 Arizona Cardinals

11.3% projected ownership

DraftKings has turned back the clock and left the ARI/SEA game on the main slate even though it has been flexed to SNF. What a treat (not a Halloween pun)! At 11% projected ownership, rostering Murray is about the closest thing to chalk at the quarterback position with more games spreading ownership.  I think you can go naked (not paired with a pass catcher) Murray here in this spot as he has TD equity on the ground. He ranks 2nd in rushing TDs (6) and 13th in rushing yards (61 gm/avg.) The matchup couldn’t be better here either as Seattle surrenders the 2nd most DKPts to opposing QB (28.5 gm/avg.) The Sunday night “hammer” is back, and his name is Kyler Murray. 

Chalk QB:

Watson, Josh Allen, Ryan

Let’s Get Weird QB:

Minshew, Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, Herbert

RB

• 

Todd Gurley, $6000, Atlanta Falcons

6.7% projected ownership

The stigma from rostering Todd Gurley is still very much alive even in Week 6. Let’s take the name away for a moment and take a look at the situation. We have a running back here who is ranked 6th in rush attempts (99), 8th in rushing yards (422), and tied for 3rd in rushing TDs (5.)  The Falcons have the 3rd highest implied team total on the slate with 28.75 expected points.  According to Football Outsiders, the Lions have the 2nd worst-ranked rushing defense.  So you see, this spot isn’t so bad after all! Ok, you can put the clothes pin back on your nose now. 

Chalk RB:

Kamara (Lock of Locks), Carson

Also, Consider:

Drake   

Let’s Get Weird RB:

Singletary, Robinson, Conner

WR

Keenan Allen, $6200, Los Angeles Chargers

21.7% projected ownership

Allen looks to be chalky in Week 7, and for a good reason. He’s an absolute target hog with a great matchup and a nice team total. PFF ranks Allen 4th best among 121 qualified wide receivers.  So we know he’s playing good football right now. Furthermore, Allen is 5th best in both team target share% (30.9%) and red zone target share (31.6%.) But on the other contrary, Football Outsiders has the opposing Jaguars defense ranked dead last against opposing wide receivers. My favorite stack here is Herbert/Allen and the James Robinson run-back. 

Chalk WR:

Hopkins, McLaurin

Also, Consider:

Golladay, Godwin

Let’s Get Weird WR:

MVS

Fade:

Gabriel Davis (23% NO THANKS)

TE:

T.J. Hockenson, $5000, Detroit Lions

6.7% projected ownership

The Atlanta Falcons have been terrible against tight ends, and this game sets up nicely for Hockenson and the Lions to be playing some catchup as 2.5 point dogs in the dome. Like most weeks, there is no clear option (outside of maybe Kelce) at the tight end, and I’m expecting I’ll be mixing up my tight end exposure amongst several players.  I especially like Hockenson as he faces off against a defense who has allowed the most touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends (7.) Hockenson’s inside the 10 target % of 37.5% in 6th best at the position. I’m expecting a TD here, but hopefully much more.   

Chalk TE:

Kelce, Henry, Njoku

Let’s Get Weird TE:

Gronkowski (.7% projected ownership!)

DST:

BUF, NE, WAS, CIN

Let’s Get Weird DST:

KC, JAX

(My preference in that order)