Week 6 Targets and Touches

Week 6 Targets and Touches

Week 6 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Week 6 Team Target Averages and Scaled Targets vs League Average

Week 6 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! I then highlight the extremes from High (green) and Low (red) of all the NFL teams.  Green X marks the High Target Efficiency teams.

I also consider the amount of data, and our floor is not solid with just six weeks of data, but the more weeks then, the better for these metrics. I used average targets and targeting efficiency (targets sec) to highlight team targets over the last 6 weeks. 

Analysis of Week 6 Targets and Touches.

DAL is the clear top at 47 target efficiency, and Dak has been delivering, but now Dalton is in, and I expect a regression of DAL Targeting Efficiency. I will be shocked if DAL is now above the league average. Dalton will be the 16th QB type at that level. We will see if it’s the WRs or QBs in here for the metrics. 

DAL/WAS/PHI/NE/NYJ/JAX/KC/HOU/TEN/MIN are all teams having strong targeting efficiency! Some surprises in here for me, such as WAS. Additionally, in this list, DAL/WAS/PHI/NE/NYJ/JAX teams are stained green and pass-happy teams. Add Value to their pass-catchers! Note the Green X marking the tops in Team Targeting Efficiency. These are the team to focus on pass-catcher depth. 

These data trends are going to be trailing and these can change. Note DAL/WAS/MIA QB changes. 

The flip-side is BAL/LV/CLE/DET/MIN/IND/SEA/MIA/NYG/SF teams lower in the average targets.  Subtract week 7 value from their WRs. Rushing is more favored. Stock-pile RB handcuffs etc. These teams at or below 3.9 average targets. Caution in PPR leagues and DFS plays.

I note the SEA is on this list as they are a highly competitive team. I need to get deeper in here to study the rule-breakers such as MIN and NYG. 

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Team Target Averages vs Targeting Efficiency Weeks 1 to 6

Week 6 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below. I like to graph data points in comparison to the league average of 4.1 targets. This allows me in a glance to see what teams were above or below the average of Targets.

Additionally, I colorized the lines with blue vs. red. Consider the reasons why and is this week going to be different? Finally, use Vegas and Defense against the Positions (DAPS) to investigate that question! 

I present Team Target Averages first to showcase Teams across the league vs. league targeting averages. We must know the extremes for our finger-tip knowledge in line-ups and DFS plays. 

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KEY Extremes in High Targeting Efficiency

KEY Extremes in High Targeting Efficiency are marked by Green Stars. Move-in PPR leagues toward them and away from lower Target Efficient teams on average. (Yes, other data can and will modify those trends, but we start here first). 

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week?

Additionally, team targeting efficiency is interesting for some teams such as MIN, which is low in target averages but has nice efficiency with their passing (Orange Star). The opposite is CAR/CIN/ATL, which are high in average targets but low in targeting efficiency? Questions remain. Is MIN going to improve vs. CAR/LAC/ATL going to decline? Watch. 

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Targeting Averages Week 1 to 6 vs. Team Positional Usages 

Week 6 Targets and Touches. I continue a drill down to see each team’s position in targeting averages weeks and positional usages from Weeks 1 to 6.

The actionable data here is what you can deduce from the trends.

Additionally, This landscape view is superior to what happened last week only. This broad view is a skill needed to improve your Fantasy Football Playing.

I look for extremes and unusual/surprising metrics. In these data, Teams are going to grade out higher in WRs (more of them) so if a team is overusing its RB or TE then the WR usages will be lower and standout.

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ARI/ATL/BAL/BUF

  • ATL             RB Low
  • ARI/BUF    TE Low
  • BAL            High TEs
  • BAL            Low WRs

 

Bar Graph Patterns

Also, I include a visual bar graph of the team positional usages as well. Give this a soft scan for developing opinions for DFS and lineups. Each block of data included 4 teams at a time. I like to see the red line patterns. I compare the teams using just the red line graphs.

Find interesting situations!

Week 6 Targets and Touches

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CAR/CHI/CIN/CLE

  • CAR                   Low TE with High RB
  • CHI/CIN            Low WR
  • CLE                   Low RB and High TE

Week 6 Targets and Touches   

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DAL/DEN/DET/GB

  • DET            Low WR but Great TE usages
  • DAL/GB     High RB but Low TE (They are the same team in the pattern)

Week 6 Targets and Touches   

 

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HOU/IND/JAX/KC

  • KC Low RB vs. High TE
  • JAX High RB
  • HOU Low RB Higher WRs

Week 6 Targets and Touches  

  

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LAC/LAR/LV/MIA

  • LV  Extreme TE and Very Low WR
  • LAC/MIA  Same pattern

Week 6 Targets and Touches  Week 6 Targets and Touches 

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MIN/NE/NO/NYG

  • NE         No TE Usage with Extreme WR
  • NO         Extreme High RB and Low TE
  • NYG      All Positions Used 
  • MIN      Low RB High WR

Week 6 Targets and Touches   

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NYJ/PHI/PIT/SEA

  • PHI          High TE and Low WR
  • NYJ/PIT   Low RB Higher WR
  • SEA          High RB

Week 6 Targets and Touches   

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SF/TB/TEN/WAS

  • SF        Extreme TE vs. Very Low WR
  • TEN     Low RB High TE
  • WAS    WR/TE Same 

Week 6 Targets and Touches   

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Targets and Usage Efficiency Within Positions.

Week 6 Targets and Touches. You must also consider the player’s ranking among their position. 

High Use within the Team but Low in the League is different than High and High.

That should give your concerns for league lower players in targets. Weak teams are known to have poor depth in PPR scoring. Scan through the positions and find the unusual and extremes. ** Assuming FF data is normally distributed?

In an extreme value analysis, extreme events are defined to be those observations in a sample which are unusually high, or low, and are therefore considered to occur in the tails of a probability distribution.

Standard statistical methods are designed to characterize the mean behavior of a process or data sample and are therefore not generally useful for capturing this tail behavior.

https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/maths/research/statistics/extreme-value-statistics/

The following positional based tables have been sorted by Total Season Team Targeting Usages vs. Average Targets.

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Running Backs

  • Top teams in RB Usages are NO/NE/CAR/CIN/JAX/GB/CHI/DAL/WAS all above 30% in RB usages!
  • Weak RB Usages below 20% coming from CLE/SF/NYJ/ATL/PIT/TEN
  • LAC/PHI also have relatively high RB Targets vs. Lower Usages. 

Week 6 Targets and Touches 

BAR Graph RBs Targets vs. Usages.

I note NO CAR CIN JAX DAL and WAS, which have their target average above the usages trend line (orange).

    Week 6 Targets and Touches

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Tight Ends

  • TE Centric Teams (Above 38% Usage) are SF/LV/KC/TEN/DET/BAL/PHI.
  • I note WAS, LAC, and DAL’s TEs (high targets vs. usages) may be out on the waiver wires if needed.
  • SEA, MIN, GB, NO, ARI, CAR, CIN, and NE all below 25% TE Usages. Interesting in GB given the recent TE activity (watch)

Week 6 Targets and Touches 

 Orange Stars Mark Interesting Teams

Week 6 Targets and Touches

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Wide Receivers

  • The top WR usage teams are NE NYJ, ARI ATL, MIN CAR HOU PIT SEA CLE LAR teams with WRs used above 46%. Key deeper WRs are viable on these teams.
  • Note MIN CLE SEA PIT LAR BUF have poor target average yet higher usages.
  • LV SF WAS KC PHI NYG DET are poor WR using teams who are using the RB and/or TE to compensate. Beware depth WRs on these teams.
  •  Orange Stars Mark Interesting Teams on the Graph 

  Week 6 Targets and Touches

  

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Team Positional Player Week 1 to 6 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 6 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6     ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                 ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                           (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. I scan for those and note those. 

My Week 7 Rankings are out tomorrow, FYI. 

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Player Based Week 1 to 6 Targeting Usages with DIFFs.

Week 6 Targets and Touches. The team-based data is good for within, but how does the player stack up across the league?

Again, a highly used player on a league low team is not as solid as you could think. Extremes are your friends in the data game!

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Running Backs Week 6 Targets 

Extremes are of interest.

  • For example,
  • James White
  • JD McKissic
  • David Montgomery
  • Mixon
  • Ronald Jones

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Tight Ends Week 5 Targets 

  • Examples
  • Kittle
  • Hooper
  • Firkser 

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Wide Receivers Week 5 Targets 

Increases 

  • McLaurin
  • Lamb
  • Thielen

Dropping

  • Hopkins
  • Ridley
  • Lockett
  • AJ Green

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Running Back Touches with % Rushing vs Receiving (ATTs vs Targets)

Week 6 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Team Level RB Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Rush/Pass Ratios

Week 6 Targets and Touches.  We must understand the nature of each team towards its use of RBs in rushing and passing.

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass Ratio and Sorted all teams by that metric. 

Next, I note extreme in RB ratios. I highlighted the extremes using RRR vs. TTT.  All Rushing vs. All Pass-Catching

  • RRR_CLE TEN PIT 

  • RR_LAR DEN

  • TTT_NYG SF NE MIA JAC

  • TT_WAS PHI GB NO

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Ratios

Rushing to Pass-Catching RB Teams from Left to Right.

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Averages. 

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 1 to 6

  • Targets Weeks 1 to 6

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  • ARI_ Drake 22 touches vs Edmonds 7

  • ATL_Gurley 24 vs Hill 12

  • BAL_Edwards 12 vs Dobbins 4

  • BUF_Singletary 12 vs Moss 5

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  • CAR_Davis 21 vs Cannon 5

  • CHI_Monty 24 all activity!

  • CIN_Mixon 21 vs Bernard 11

  • CLE_Hunt 16 vs DEJ 5

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  • DAL_Elliot 23 vs Pollard 14

  • DEN Lindsay 23 vs Freeman 9

  • DET Peterson 16 vs Swift 18

  • GB Jones 15 vs Williams 5

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  • HOU_Johnson 21 vs Duke 6

  • IND_Taylor 16 vs Hines 6 vs Wilkins 2

  • JAC_Robinson 16 vs Thompson 4

  • KC_CEH 16 vs D Williams 7 vs Darwin 3

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  • LAC_Kelly 12 vs Jackson 21

  • LAR_Henderson 14 vs Brown 6

  • LV_Jacobs 26 vs Booker 8

  • MIA_Gaskin 22 vs Brieda 8

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  • MIN_Mattison 12 vs Abdullah 4 vs Boone 2

  • NE_Harris 7 vs White 13

  • NO_Kamara 21 vs Murray 10

  • NYG Freeman 20 vs Lewis 1

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  • NYJ Gore 15 vs Perine 10

  • PHI Sanders 11 vs Scott 6

  • PIT Connor 21 vs Snell 7

  • SEA Carson 15 vs Homer 3

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  • SF Mostert 19 vs McKinnon 9 vs Hasty 10

  • TB Jones 25 vs Vaughn 6 vs McCoy 5

  • TEN Henry 27 vs McNichols 8

  • WAS Gibson 14 vs McKissic 14 vs Barber 5

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Team RB ATTs RUSH vs Targets Pass-Catching

I go through these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

Let me narrate, for example, looking at these metrics. Who is each RB? Rusher/Pass Catcher? Both One or the Other or Neither? I Highlighted the metrics for an easy view!  For example, Drake is the rusher vs. Edmonds is the pass-catcher.

These tables have:

  • Team
  • Player
  • Avg Atts
  • % Team Rushing
  • Avg os Targets
  • % Team Targets

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I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Team RB Rushing vs Targeting Weeks 1 to 6

Scan along for your decisions in DFS, PPR vs. Non-PPR, Lineups, etc.

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The graphs that follow emphasize the data. Scan across for trends in week 7 games. Red Rushing vs. Green Targeting by Team and Player

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