Week 4 is in the books despite a handful of games being impacted by the COVID-19 virus. While we’re still waiting on a few totals, 4 games have totals surpassing 53 expected points. KC, BAL and DAL are each 7+ point favorites in each of these spots. My focus this week is to concentrate on workload and market share of touches, than individual matchups. Let’s dig in fam!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Teddy Bridgewater | $5900 | Carolina Panthers
9.9% projected ownership
On the heels of an outbreak (no pun intended) performance of 27.24 DKPt (4th best for Week 4), Bridgewater and the Panthers head down to Atlanta to face the Falcons’ woeful defense. The Falcons’ defense ranks 2nd in passing yards allowed (1415 yds) and last in passing touchdowns allowed (13.)
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While the Panthers’ implied team total of 26.75 isn’t great, it’s still enough to imagine a similar performance from the Panthers’ signal caller. Interestingly, the Panthers’ team total has been bet up by sharps from 25 points and now pushes 27.
Also Consider: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Matt Ryan
David Johnson | $5200 | Houston Texans
13.6% projected ownership
I’m curious to see the fallout here from the Bill O’Brien firing. Although DJ has yet to crack 20 DKPt in a game, his usage is promising to break this trend. Johnson’s 82% snap share is second only to Elliott at the running back position.
His 79% Market Share for team carries surpasses such workhorses as CEH, Elliott and Cook. The Jaguars have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Chalk RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Davis
Also Consider: Todd Gurley, James Robinson
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Jamison Crowder | $5800 | New York Jets
2.4% projected ownership
I feel like I owe anyone reading this an apology for recommending a Jet with Flacco under center. That however, ain’t happening! In the 2 games he played, Crowder had over 100 yards in each on 23(!) targets. Although the sample size is small, Crowder’s 31.1% target market share is elite (Ranked 4 behind Allen, Thielen and Hopkins). A 4x game(23.2 DKPt) is well within the realm of possibilities at his depressed price tag on DraftKings.
Chalk WR: Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley
Also Consider: Juju Smith-Schuster, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill
Dalton Shultz | $4800 | Dallas Cowboys
4% projected ownership
I’m going to be honest, I feel like I’m the biggest Jarwin “truther” there is. So when he went down in Week 1, I was uninterested in any other tight end on the Cowboys.
However, after stepping up to handle the workload for the Cowboys, Shultz has been a bright spot for this Cowboys team that does quite a bit of passing. Shultz ranks 4th in tight end targets (28) and 11th in Air Yards (187.) The lightly owned Shultz gives us a cheap piece of the Cowboys offense who boast a 31 implied team total.
Chalk: Evan Engram
Also Consider: George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Ian Thomas
ARI, LAR, SFO, BAL
(My preference in that order)