Week 4 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 4 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 4 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles. The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down into the specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, that is a strong method for investigations leading to research and hypothesis testing.

• My SNAPs Report Snaps Report for this Week

• My Targets and Touches Report Target and Touch Report

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Week 4 Team Average PPR Based Rankings Raw and Scaled Rankings to League Average.

Team Level Uncertainty

Week 3 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level uncertainty. High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups. Low uncertainty teams on the other hand can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 3’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or Avg in UNC vs Low UNC. This ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for consideration.

Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes. This week WAS/ATL/BUF/DAL/LAC are the teams having more Low UNC players while SF/PHI/NYG are those with High UNC!

Move toward the top teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams.

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Bar Graph Plot of Week 3 Team Uncertainty Levels

Week 3 Rankings with Uncertainty. The simple Bar Graph encapsulates the Landscape of Team Uncertainty for week 3. The low UNC are low green stained and plotted to the left vs the high UNC are high red stained to the right. The level of each team can be used for further decisions.

For example, SF is the Highest UNC team for week 3 by a high amount. Caution as the range of SF player outcomes is High!

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming.

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Defenses

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KICKERs

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Quarterbacks

 

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Running Backs

  

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Tight Ends

 

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Wide Receivers

DHOP is ranked number 1 but he is a game-time decision.

    

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

I present the heart of my week 4 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move to higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table, the match-ups defense against the positions metrics to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer easy spots for players but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher scoring games.

As the points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on the talent not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

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Week 4 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

The Table below lists the 8 games that Vegas suggest will be high scoring this week and thus you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Week DAP Analysis Game By Game

Next, I drill into the defense against the position metrics. I will go through the CAR vs ARI Game DAPs to illustrate using these DAP data.

WEEK 4 rankings FSPR (Fantasy Sport Professor’s Rankings).

These figures contain:

• Team
• Positions (Colorized and Sorted High to Low / Green to Red)
• Player FSPR Rankings Numbers under their UNC level (High, Avg, and Low UNC).

 

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Week 4 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

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Week 4 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (above 41 total game points)

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