TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – Professor’s Team Flash Card.

NFC SOUTH_TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – Professor’s Team Flash Card. This article focuses on three tables and their analysis.

  1. 2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels
  2. 2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages
  3. 2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.

I suggest these will present a landscape of simple data from 2019 vs. the current 2020 preseason rankings. Link to my Current Rankings Below. 

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2020/05/18/early-2020-ppr-rankings-with-uncertainty-analysis/

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2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels

This Table includes:

  • Team
  • Bye Week
  • Position Rankings
  • Position
  • Overall Name
  • Fantasy Sport’s Professor’s Rankings (Scale of 100 to 0-Green to Red)
  • Uncertainty Level of High, Average or Low

The DST and Kicker have split rankings for 2020. The TB DST I rank at 20th. This weak sauce defense should pull Brady into a short-passing game. The Kicker, however, is at K 7th and is very usable.

QB and RB. 

Firstly, Brady coming in should give TB a solid passing game, but because of the weaker defense, I suspect Brady is using his shorter game. That should aid the TEs, Pass-Catcher RBs, and Slot receivers for 2020. I rank him at QB 10th with some uncertainty around his 2020 season. He is a nice QB2, but I would not gamble on him as my QB1 unless you are a late QB streamer type. 

Secondly, The RBs are a mystery as TB drafted K Vaughn, a flashy rookie. TB thought to be a good pass-catcher out of the backfield. He was recruited to fill that role after Barber left for WAS.  Jones, the other Key RB is a rushing guy.  I rank Vaughn as RB27th and Jones at RB40th, both caring some uncertainty in the RB crew. Vaughn should have the best upside due to Brady’s love of passing to his RBs! 

TE and WR.

The TB team has too many TEs for 2020. Assuming Gronk is ready, then he should lead these guys. I rank him at 9th TE while Howard and Brate are at 32nd and 41st with apparent uncertainty. Hard to see the latter TEs making a splash over Gronk in 2020. 

The WRs on TB is the tandem of Godwin and Evans at 6th and 9th with low uncertainty. Assuming Brady can keep the short game going, I think Godwin is more the short guy with Evans a boom-bust longer play. He could be over ranked. It is hard to figure this. Brady is also a game manager, and he will not be firing the ball down field unless needed. Winston, in 2019 was a passing all the time QB. TB moves to a different scheme in 2020. 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Professor's Team Flash Card.

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2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages

This Table presents:

  • Team
  • Position
  • 2016 to 2019 Fantasy Point Averages 
  • 4 Year Sum of Averages
  • % of Positional Usage by the 4-Year Date
  • % of 2019 Team Usages
  • DIFF – 2019 vs. last 4-year % Usages (Improving or Declining)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – Professor’s Team Flash Card. In 2019 the QB/RB positions were heavily used by 3.3 and 2.0% as measured by Fantasy Point usages. However, the TEs were at a 4-year low in usage and dropped by -4.2%. The WRs, while not the lowest in the last 4-year, did see a drop by -1.1%.

TB jettisoned Winston and acquired Brady. Brady should be a passing QB with lesser interceptions for 2020. Brady will not match the yardage for passing targets as Winston was the top in 2019 with 6400 yds of his targets. Brady was 9th in this stat at 4600 yards for his targets. Thus, the efficiency may come in, but the passing should drop by 30% on average. Godwin and Evans, the WR should still be solid WR1/2s with WR1 upside, but until the chemistry is established, I suggest caution.

Additionally, the TE Howard and Brate were expected to gain in passing FP as Brady does like to use his TEs. However, adding Gronk upset the careers of these two TEs, and Gronk leads the TE crew for 2020.

The RBs left on TB after Barber was let go were Jones and Ogunbowale. Interestingly, Vaughn, the pass-catcher Rookie RB was drafted in the 3rd round suggesting TB will use the rookie plenty for pass-catching. Jones will carry the rushing role, but a double RB backfield could also happen to keep the defenses off base. Ogunbowale is only an injury handcuff RB for 2020. 

QB/RB Tops with TE Bottoms in the last four years.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Professor's Team Flash Card.

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 2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.

This Table contains:

  • Team
  • Position
  • 2015 to 2019 Targets Per Game
  • 5 Year Average of Targets Per Game
  • %2019 Usages in Targeting
  • % 5-Year Positional Usage Average
  • DIFF 2019 vs. 5-Year Average of Team Positional Usages

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – Professor’s Team Flash Card. Overall Comments: 2019 TB was a steady year looking at the T/G from a decline of 1% at TE to an increase in 1% in the RB with WRs unchanged. The current RBs are Ke’Shawn Vaughn RB27th, Ronald Jones II RB40, and Dare Ogunbowale RB84, and given the 2019 targeting 24% usage level Vaughn will be in play for your 2020.

Next, the TE crew will change having Brady with his TE Gronk. I note that the TB team has used the TE at an ok level of 24%. The current TEs are Rob Gronkowski TE9, OJ. Howard TE32 and Cameron Brate TE41, and it figures in 2020 to be a splitting of targeting, leading to a lower value for all.

Finally, having Brady as QB can change the 2020 season for Chris Godwin WR6, Mike Evans WR9, and Justin Watson WR114. The public predicts the Brady has 2 top 12 WRs, and thus the pecking order and usages may change. I would not think the old patterns will exist in 2020. I suggest Evans usages degrade for 2020 with Godwin playing the short game for Brady.

TB T

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Professor's Team Flash Card.

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